A lot of us disagree on the philosophy the Reds should take this offseason... I hear arguments that fall along these lines: (1)Plan for the future/Sit back and wait, (2) Plan for the future/trade our prospect for more expensive established prospects, (3) Mortgage the future/Do whatever we have to in order to win now .. in other words trade for Santana ...
I see myself as (2) on the spectrum, where are you?
I know that it's improbable that Bedard, Kazmir, & Peavey are actually on the market, if they aren't then I guess I'm a (1), but if they are... I want 'em and here's why:
-over on the org there's a thread about whether or not to trade Stubbs for Capuano.... I know that Capuano was probably never valued as highly as Bailey (and I don't debate that), but to me its just another example of how quickly a prospect can fall off the table if he has a couple bad years... if Bailey finishes the season w/ a 5+ ERA... what's he worth - right now Bailey & Cueto are probably amongst the top 5 pitching prospects in all of baseball... WK really doesn't know what he can get for them unless he shops them.
1. I think we definitely target Kazmir - he's under team control for 3 years ... those are 3 important years in which we'd have an ace pitcher for a much cheaper rate than in free agency. The Rays want pitching... if Wayne can get him for a package centering around Bailey/Cueto & Maloney .. I do that...
2. Next we land Bedard or Peavey - which ever team bites on an offer centering around Bailey/Cueto & Hamilton/Bruce. Peavey's more expensive (though really reasonable) and they're both tied up for 2 years, so neither would be a bad deal.
We'd be losing two potential starting pitching stars for two actual starting pitching stars. We'd be getting 2 aces in which we'd be paying a collective amount equal to or less than what Carlos Silva will be getting in free agency. We'd also lose Hamilton or Bruce, which would hurt, but I think we'll be okay as long as we keep one of the two.
If we end up w/ a starting rotation of Bedard/Peavey, Harang, Kazmir, Arroyo, ????? for the next 3 years (we'll lose Bedard/Peavey after 2 if we don't resign him) - we'll have the best pitching staff in all of baseball, while also maintaining one of the youngest, cheapest and offensively potent offenses in all of baseball.
- In this scenario, I think our best chance to win the Series would be next year because we'll have a 3-ace pitching staff and Griffey & Dunn (whereas Griff & Dunn aren't guaranteed for '09). If we do win the series next year, I would then trade Peavey/Bedard and get serious pitching prospect(s) back in return (also, possibly making space in the payroll to resign Dunn), thereby keeping an eye toward the future, while holding onto Kazmir and maintaining the possibility of winning for the next 2 years. This, in my mind, is the best of both worlds - giving us fans a series ... which would be monumental and awesome... but not ruining the future.
What are your thoughts?