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Thread: Hot Stove League show report

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Hot Stove League show report

    Here is the Reds Hot Stove League show for 11-14-07. Steve Stewart was the host tonight filling in for Joe who is in intensive care in the hospital for pneumonia. Steve said he talked to Joe's son Kim and Kim said that Joe's going to get a pacemaker put in but everybody feels good how things are going. John Fay joined Steve in studio. Steve asked him if he was going to be ready for an active offseason. Fay said he thinks we'll see some things happen and the Reds need pitching. He thinks there's some free agent pitching that can help them and he thinks they will sign a couple of pitchers.

    After commercial, Steve said it's tough to know what team can get what player cause every team's salary structure is different. Fay said that you don't really know what payroll's going to be until Opening Day or close to it but we do know Eric Milton's money is going to be gone. They increased ticket prices and got more money from radio so it should be higher than last year's payroll. It may be $75-$80M which could get a relief pitcher or two. Steve said if payroll is $80M, it will be almost double what it was 4 years ago but it still has the Reds at the lower end of the middle of the pack as far as team payrolls go. Fay said that Brandon Phillips is going to get a big raise and so are Harang and Arroyo and that will eat up all of Milton's money.

    The first caller asked if Pete Mackanin would be the bench coach and if they were surprised the Reds picked up Dunn's option. Fay said that Pete won't be the bench coach but will probably be coaching in the minors or majors or managing in the minors. Fay said he wasn't surprised that Dunn's option was picked up and there were some that wanted to let him go and get draft picks but Dunn has been about the best draft pick of the Reds in the past 10 years. Fay said that there really isn't anyone on the free agent market who he'd spend $13M on. (Sounds like someone has grown a brain). Steve agreed and said it's hard to replace his production. Fay wouldn't be surprised to see him sign long term within the next few months. Fay said last year was a big improvement on the year before for Dunn. Steve said there's a glut in the OF. Fay said that it kind of depends on Freel and if he's healthy, they can move someone like Hamilton or Hopper. Freel has a fairly large salary for a utility guy so he could be hard to trade. Steve asked about trading Jr. Fay said teams will be a little skeptical because of his injury history and perhaps his days here are coming to an end especially if Jay Bruce is the real deal.

    After commercials they talked about the Reds moving out of Sarasota and they both wanted to see them stay. The second caller asked about Josh and if the Reds would re-sign him for next year. Steve and Fay said he's under the Reds control for the next 5 years. Steve brought up the fact that if he struggles, the Reds can now option him to the minors. Fay said that he's a good deal for the Reds since he will come cheap the next couple of years. Steve asked Fay if there was any concern about Josh now that Johnny Narron won't be back. Fay said that at some point you have to do that and it didn't sit well with some players that Josh had his own personal coach but he thinks Josh will be fine.

    The next caller asked about Norris Hopper and thought the Reds were playing well when him and Keppinger hit in the first couple of spots in the order. Fay said that Hopper proved a lot and he has He knows his limitations as a hitter and doesn't try to knock everything out of the park. Fay thinks the Reds see him as a extra OFer and he could get more time if there are injuries. Fay said that the one bad thing about Hopper in the leadoff spot is that he doesn't walk a lot but he did reach base pretty consistently when he was playing. (Are we sure this is Fay and not C. Trent?)

    After commercial, the next caller said that Fay has said that the Reds had problems scoring runs without Jr. and Dunn during the last couple of weeks of the season and he doesn't think that's entirely true. He sad if they both were gone, Bruce and Josh would be able to fill in along with Hopper and Keppinger. He thinks the Reds can score runs without Dunn and Jr. but they have to have major league quality players to play instead of the scrubs that played last year. Fay said he made a good point but Josh and Freel have had injury prone. He said they would be a different club without Jr. and Dunn and they would have to rely less on power. He thinks some fans feel like that would be better. The caller said it would be much more enjoyable to watch. Fay said that the Reds want to win and it hasn't worked the way it has been going. The caller thinks Dunn could be traded for pitching and Jay Bruce could take his place. Steve said Dunn has a no trade clause until about the middle of the season. The caller said that Dunn would have to sign off on a trade. Fay said that they tried to move Dunn last year and they didn't have much success but he had a great second half and that may have increased his value but he's a free agent so that may be a wash. Fay said that Bob and Dunn had that lunch last year he thought the Reds looked at Dunn differently after that. The caller said that scares him and hopes Wayne makes those decisions and not Bob. Fay said that on the big contracts, Bob has a say since it's his money. The caller said that Dunn is a luxury that only a team that brings in a lot of money can afford cause he can't hit in the 3rd or 4th spot. The caller said he drives in 100 runs but they aren't 100 crucial runs. (Hey, it's Bad Fundamentals!) He said that someone with Dunn's power should be driving in 125 runs a year and you can't have one of your most expensive players not be one of your most productive players (Nuh, uh. Eric Milton was expensive and he wasn't productive) He thinks Brandon Phillips is a more productive player and there are 3 or 4 players on the Reds that would drive home a runner on 2nd more often than Dunn would. Fay said that has been the knock on him hitting with RISP. Fay said he improved from the season before and even Brandon isn't that great with RISP. Fay said one of the better hitters with RISP is Encarnacion. Steve said that when a guy is under your control for more than a year it's easier to trade him.

    After commercials, the next caller asked if the Reds were 1 or 2 starting pitchers away from a good starting rotation. Fay said it depends on who those pitchers are. He thinks they are pretty close Harang's a given and Arroyo had a lot of bad luck and Homer could improve. The caller said there doesn't appear to be much pitching on the free agent market and he was surprised the Reds didn't go aggressively after free agent pitching last year. He thinks Homer was hurt last year and when he was brought up he wasn't 100%. He said the bullpen needs a couple of good pitchers and Brandon is a great second baseman. Steve said everyone is looking for pitching. Fay said the market is lean and a guy like Lohse may make $9 a year for 4 years and Carlos Silva has a 4 ERA and is going to make a lot of money. He thinks the Reds will try to improve the bullpen and hope the kids can improve and maybe trade for a pitcher. Steve asked where Fay thinks Maloney and Cueto will start the year. Fay thinks they will be in LOU.

    The next caller asked how different the dynamic for the Reds would be if they could sign Cordero and trade for Santana. Steve said that Santana's a risk since he's going to be a free agent after this year and he'll be wanting around $20M a year. Plus you will have to give up a bunch of talent like Bruce, Cueto and.or Bailey.

    After commercials, Steve asked Fay how soon we may see Jay Bruce in Cincinnati. Fay said there's a chance he makes the club out of ST if an outfielder is traded and he could be up here for good by the All Star break. He said he doesn't really have anything to prove in AAA. Steve wished John Allen the best. Fay said he brought back RedsFest and did a lot of other good things and he'll be missed.

    Thus endeth the Reds Hot Stove League show report for 11-14-07. So let it be written. So let it be done.

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  3. #2
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    So BF is still a Reds fan

    Thanks Chip
    Go Gators!

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Fay thinks the Reds see him as a extra OFer and he could get more time if there are injuries. Fay said that the one bad thing about Hopper in the leadoff spot is that he doesn't walk a lot but he did reach base pretty consistently when he was playing.
    That is brilliant. Thanks Chip.

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    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Fay also has this on his blog. Ever try to squeeze blood from a turnip?

    I talked to Wayne Krivsky this afternoon about free agency. Let's just say I didn't spent a lot of time transcribing quotes.

    Weve had lots of conversations with a lot of agents, Krivsky said. But Im not going to get into specifics.

    Is the depth pretty good as far as relievers?

    There always good players, he said. Its up to us find a match.

    I mentioned that the Reds got of out the gate quickly last year, signing Alex Gonzalez on Nov. 20. So have the Reds targeted anyone this offseason not naming names, of course?

    Im not going to say. Well see, he said.

    I'm doing the Hot Stove League with the Steve "The Bad Boy" Stewart tonight from 6 to 7. I'll be able to share all that Krivsky told me with the vast listening audience.
    There you have it.

    My educated guess is the Reds are targeting relief pitchers. I think they'll at least find out where the bidding starts on Francisco Cordero. But, as you might guess, Krivsky wouldn't say whether they'd be in the market for a free agent closer.

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    I would hope the Reds would be able to compete with a $80 Mil payroll, but based on the talent that's "earning" that supposedly $80 Mil, it's not exactly money well spent.

    Obviously I'm talking about the Stantons and the Castros of the world. Unfortunately, Freel almost gets lumped into that group due to the fact he's making some good coin while being a 4th OF/Util guy.

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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    Fay also has this on his blog. Ever try to squeeze blood from a turnip?
    You know I have never really had a problem with WK being mum about his prospective moves, but this is pretty much over the top.

    What's wrong with saying..."Yeah, we are looking at a few relievers. Building a good bullpen should be every teams goal every year. We would like some arms to help us get to the 9th inning."

    When I'm GM, that's what I'll say.

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    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Thanks for the report, Chip. Well done, as always.

    This might be a question that Matt700WLW will have to answer. Is Steve still a Reds employee at this point or was he working for WLW when he hosted the show? I thought it had been posted that Steve's contract ran out this year at the end of ST.
    /r/reds

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post

    When I'm GM, that's what I'll say.
    And you'll hire me to your staff because I'm likable

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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I would hope the Reds would be able to compete with a $80 Mil payroll, but based on the talent that's "earning" that supposedly $80 Mil, it's not exactly money well spent.

    Obviously I'm talking about the Stantons and the Castros of the world. Unfortunately, Freel almost gets lumped into that group due to the fact he's making some good coin while being a 4th OF/Util guy.
    It definitely sucks, but to be honest, those 3 guys (Freel/Castro/Stanton) accounted for less than 7.5% of the total payroll in 2007. Could the money have been spent better? Yeah, but nearly every team has some player (or a few players) that they'd rather be off the hook for. Many teams have players making a LOT more money than that that have been busts.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    You know I have never really had a problem with WK being mum about his prospective moves, but this is pretty much over the top.

    What's wrong with saying..."Yeah, we are looking at a few relievers. Building a good bullpen should be every teams goal every year. We would like some arms to help us get to the 9th inning."

    When I'm GM, that's what I'll say.
    I don't think I have evidence to back this up, but it would seem to me that yacking up what you're looking for (and particularly who you're looking at - and I don't think you're saying you have a problem with being mum on that end) would tend to drive up your price.

    FA's need competition for their services. Whether a GM talks or not, there is some of that anyway. But several teams saying they're aiming for this player or that, I think, fuels that competition. Maybe I'm wrong (and I understand the frustration about WK being mum), but I think we're better served with the cards close to the vest.

    I think it's very possible that ARod's meetings with the Yankees without Boras is a ploy to grease the pump. His price stays down without the Yankees negotiating. Boras was pleading with them to enter the fray. Even with a Yankees discount (reported $270M, 10 years), that moves the price up now for teams that also have interest in him. The price stays down without the Yankees being players.
    Last edited by redsmetz; 11-15-2007 at 05:52 AM.
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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    I'm stoked! The Reds seem to be planning to finally open the coffers! First priority-spending lots of money over-paying guys to fill a job that is one of the easiest in baseball to cross off of the list. WOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Rumor has it that Chris Reitsma is available and willing to come back to Cincy... I hope the Reds move on him early to avoid a bidding war.

    :dancingco
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    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Quote Originally Posted by Unassisted View Post
    Thanks for the report, Chip. Well done, as always.

    This might be a question that Matt700WLW will have to answer. Is Steve still a Reds employee at this point or was he working for WLW when he hosted the show? I thought it had been posted that Steve's contract ran out this year at the end of ST.
    Steve is employed by the Reds as the Director of the Speakers Bureau.

    As usual, WTG Chipster!
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  14. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    You know I have never really had a problem with WK being mum about his prospective moves, but this is pretty much over the top.

    What's wrong with saying..."Yeah, we are looking at a few relievers. Building a good bullpen should be every teams goal every year. We would like some arms to help us get to the 9th inning."

    When I'm GM, that's what I'll say.
    Pretty soon, Wayne will go from being viewed as "being secretive" or "playing it close to the vest" to using a lot of gibberish in order to hide the fact that he has zero plan and is in over his head.

    Those quotes are ridiculous.

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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    thanks Chip -- voluminous!
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  16. #15
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Stove League show report

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm stoked! The Reds seem to be planning to finally open the coffers! First priority-spending lots of money over-paying guys to fill a job that is one of the easiest in baseball to cross off of the list. WOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Rumor has it that Chris Reitsma is available and willing to come back to Cincy... I hope the Reds move on him early to avoid a bidding war.

    :dancingco
    Jojo, this is an honest question. I don't think anyone is recommending the Reds overspend on anything, but of our various needs - pitching is the greatest. If everyone is correct that the free agent market for starters is weak, do we really want them buying in this particular market? I would think that the trade front would be the best place to address that need, but a reasonably priced #3 to #5 guy would be helpful if there is one on the market.

    That said, I think we've got an intriguing collection of relievers. Some are just starting out and if they can show some improvement, we may be in better condition than some believe. I think there's room for improvement and if there are some free agent relievers that can be signed to help, then lets do it. I'm not saying "break the bank", but lets get effective pitchers this offseason.

    This offseason will be very interesting. It's fraught with possibilities and the Reds could go innumerable ways, moving this piece or that. We'll see what April brings.
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