Dodgers, Orioles discussing trade for Eric Bedard

[757690]

Matt Kemp is very good but is not a better prospect than Bruce. Bruce put up better numbers while in the minors and he is a better defender. I will agree with you though, if the price is Bruce + Votto I do not make the trade. Bruce isn't just a good prospect, he's the best prospect in baseball.

Not so sure Bruce's #'s were better than Kemp's. Kemp as the edge to me. Bruce has a bit more power, but Kemp gets on base a lot more and can steal.
You are very correct that Bruce is better in the field. Not sure that makes up the difference.

Kemp's 2006 minor league #'s
G BA OBP SLG OPS R RBI's SB
92 .346 .414 .543 .957 75 70 25

Bruce's 2007 minor league #'s
G BA OBP SLG OPS R RBI's SB
133 .319 .375 .587 .962 87 89 8

However, here is why I think any team would take Kemp over Bruce.

Kemp's 2007 major league #'s
98 .342 .373 .521 .894 47 42 10

Bruce's major league #'s
0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0

You are correct that Bruce is one of the best prospects, if not the best prospect in baseball, but Kemp is one of the best if not the best young major league players. My main point is that he is more advanced than Bruce.
No one know how Bruce will adapt to the big leagues. Many a prospects have had Bruce type numbers and failed. Everyone knows how good Kemp is at the major league level.
I would trade Bruce for Kemp in a heartbeat.

[SMcGavin]

Not so sure Bruce's #'s were better than Kemp's. Kemp as the edge to me. Bruce has a bit more power, but Kemp gets on base a lot more and can steal.
You are very correct that Bruce is better in the field. Not sure that makes up the difference.

Kemp's 2006 minor league #'s
G BA OBP SLG OPS R RBI's SB
92 .346 .414 .543 .957 75 70 25

Bruce's 2007 minor league #'s
G BA OBP SLG OPS R RBI's SB
133 .319 .375 .587 .962 87 89 8

However, here is why I think any team would take Kemp over Bruce.

Kemp's 2007 major league #'s
98 .342 .373 .521 .894 47 42 10

Bruce's major league #'s
0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0

You are correct that Bruce is one of the best prospects, if not the best prospect in baseball, but Kemp is one of the best if not the best young major league players. My main point is that he is more advanced than Bruce.
No one know how Bruce will adapt to the big leagues. Many a prospects have had Bruce type numbers and failed. Everyone knows how good Kemp is at the major league level.
I would trade Bruce for Kemp in a heartbeat.

Well it's true that Bruce has not proven it at the ML level like Kemp has. I do take exception to your statement that many prospects have had Bruce like numbers and failed - there are maybe a handful of prospects who have ever done what he has done at his age. Probably more than any prospect in baseball, Jay Bruce is a sure thing. Matt Kemp is 23 now, Bruce will turn 21 just after opening day. In two years, when Bruce is 23, I'd bet his hitting will be similar as good or better as Kemp's is now, with good defense on top of it. So while there are a lot of players I would trade for Matt Kemp, Bruce is not one of them.

Interestingly we will likely see Bruce on a similar career path as Kemp. Kemp got 154 ABs as a 21 year old, struggling to a .733 OPS (.285 OBP). In 2007, as a 22 year old, he got 291 ABs and improved to a .896 OPS. Bruce will likely get 100-200 ABs this year and then assume a full time role in 2009, so I think those two will be a good comparison in a couple of seasons.