Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 61

Thread: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    My point EXACTLY
    I fail to see your point. Prospects are rated on potential one day, not ability today.... at least by most people. What someone does today has little to do with what they might do 5 years from now. Especially in terms of guys under the age of 24.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,782

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I fail to see your point. Prospects are rated on potential one day, not ability today.... at least by most people. What someone does today has little to do with what they might do 5 years from now. Especially in terms of guys under the age of 24.
    Well then maybe I just have a problem with rating someone who is 5 or more years away from the big leauges as a top prospect due to washout rate. I guess anyone can formulate any kind of "prospect" ranking based off any criteria they want. However when I look at these things, I want to not only base my evaluations off of a player's upside, but off of their likelihood to reach that ceiling. Maybe its a matter of a difference of opinion, but I don't think it is fair or realistic to ever rank someone who is more than a leap year away from contributing in the top 5 of anything. It's like creating a college recruiting magazine that profiles middle school athletes.

    I've seen way too many Justin Gillmans, John Olivers, Chris Grulers and Ty Howingtons over the years to start projecting 18 year olds' contributions to the Reds with any high degree of confidence.
    Last edited by Benihana; 11-21-2007 at 12:28 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Well then maybe I just have a problem with rating someone who is 5 or more years away from the big leauges as a top prospect due to washout rate. I guess anyone can formulate any kind of "prospect" ranking based off any criteria they want. However when I look at these things, I want to not only base my evaluations off of a player's upside, but off of their likelihood to reach that ceiling. Maybe its a matter of a difference of opinion, but I don't think it is fair or realistic to ever rank someone who is more than a leap year away from contributing in the top 5 of anything. It's like creating a college recruiting magazine that profiles middle school athletes.
    Well in hindsight I don't think anyone was projecting Szymanski to get to the big leagues at age 26 either. He washed out, but all prospects wash out. Not all of them, but all types. Pitchers, hitters, high schoolers, college kids, international kids, international free agents....

  5. #19
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,782

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well in hindsight I don't think anyone was projecting Szymanski to get to the big leagues at age 26 either. He washed out, but all prospects wash out. Not all of them, but all types. Pitchers, hitters, high schoolers, college kids, international kids, international free agents....
    Of course they do, but there is a much higher degree of washout with players who have yet to accomplish anything in rookie ball.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting doom and gloom for Mesoraco or anybody else. I'm just saying that until someone has produced consistently at the A ball level or better, they cannot be legitimately considered a top prospect in my eyes, so proceed with caution. Just my opinion.
    Go BLUE!!!

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Of course they do, but there is a much higher degree of washout with players who have yet to accomplish anything in rookie ball.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting doom and gloom for Mesoraco or anybody else. I'm just saying that until someone has produced consistently at the A ball level or better, they cannot be legitimately considered a top prospect in my eyes, so proceed with caution. Just my opinion.
    So David Price wouldn't be a Top 5 prospect in the Reds system if we had drafted him?

  7. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,782

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So David Price wouldn't be a Top 5 prospect in the Reds system if we had drafted him?
    I believe David Price will be starting in AA or AAA this year, and is expected to be with the big club at some point this season. That's a little different than rookie ball.

    A player who dominates at the major college level is often considered to be comparable to success at the high A level. Yet another reason why Drew Stubbs is such a disappointment.
    Go BLUE!!!

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I believe David Price will be starting in AA or AAA this year, and is expected to be with the big club at some point this season. That's a little different than rookie ball.

    A player who dominates at the major college level is often considered to be comparable to success at the high A level. Yet another reason why Drew Stubbs is such a disappointment.
    But he hasn't thrown a single pitch as a professional.

  9. #23
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,782

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    But he hasn't thrown a single pitch as a professional.
    If you want to nitpick, that's fine. I would hope you get the general idea here.

    If you want me to spell it out for you, I have no problem declaring that I have more confidence in a 6'7" pitcher who dominates at the major college level than a high school kid from the middle of nowhere that had little to no success once he made his professional debut in rookie ball.

    Could the high school kid eventually succeed? Sure. But I would err on the side of caution before I declare him a top prospect.
    Go BLUE!!!

  10. #24
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    If you want to nitpick, that's fine. I would hope you get the general idea here.

    If you want me to spell it out for you, I have no problem declaring that I have more confidence in a 6'7" pitcher who dominates at the major college level than a high school kid from the middle of nowhere that had little to no success once he made his professional debut in rookie ball.

    Could the high school kid eventually succeed? Sure. But I would err on the side of caution before I declare him a top prospect.
    I thought we were talking about Szymanski. A college kid. In the end though, its all irrelevent and moot. No one ever gets these things right.

  11. #25
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,782

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I thought we were talking about Szymanski. A college kid. In the end though, its all irrelevent and moot. No one ever gets these things right.
    No, we were talking about Mesoraco, who comes in at #6 on this BA ranking despite having little to no success in rookie ball. That's fine though, I'm still rooting for the kid. The other reason I'm skeptical regarding these BA rankings is the fact that D-Mes ranked ahead of Lotzkar, despite the latter's sparkling debut. You could argue sample size, and you could also argue (and I would agree) that neither has any business in the Top 10. But if I had to put one of them up there, I would put Lotzkar ahead of Mesoraco because of their performance at the professional level, which given both of their pedigrees, I think has more bearing than the round they were drafted.

    As far as Szymanski goes, he hardly played at what could be described as a major college program. With all due respect to Princeton (the college) and princeton (the poster), doing well in the Ivy League is a far cry from dominating at the College World Series. Could you do the latter and still wash out? Of course. But I'd bet on the kid dominating the CWS before the high school kid from nowhere that failed to impress in rookie ball.
    Last edited by Benihana; 11-21-2007 at 01:06 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #26
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    What a high schooler did in rookie ball while playing with two hurt thumbs hardly gives me any worries about him. I didn't rank Mesoraco that high on my list, but I can certainly understand where it comes from given the scouting reports.

  13. #27
    The Future GoReds33's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    2,463

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    I can't believe the lack of love for Roenicke. He made a huge step forward, and he means more to the Reds right now than a couple of the guys above him.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

  14. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds33 View Post
    I can't believe the lack of love for Roenicke. He made a huge step forward, and he means more to the Reds right now than a couple of the guys above him.
    Relief pitchers value is very little. I have noticed that in Cincinnat they tend to be overvalued simply becuase the Reds have a horrible bullpen. Relief pitchers are of some value, but nowhere near the value of a solid every day player who isn't even of the all star level.

  15. #29
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,782

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Any word on the chat?
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,092

    Re: BA Reds Top 10 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Any word on the chat?
    still going on Im sure. They usually last about an hour.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25