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Last Week: 11-5
Season: 100-60
Record Picking Redskins Games: 7-3
Against the Spread: 19-19-2
Lock of the Week: 7-3

Last Week’s Pats: Texans over Saints was a decent selection, and I think I had a very nice read on the Broncos-Titans game.

Last Week’s Apologies: Early in the season, I picked against Baltimore and they generally won. Now, I keep picking them, and they are generally losing. I thought Cleveland would be on an emotional low after their loss in Pittsburgh, but the Browns did a nice job of bouncing back against the Ravens. And apologies to my Redskins, who gave Dallas a MUCH better game than I expected.

This Week’s Picks:

Green Bay at Detroit: Everything I know about football is pulling me towards picking Detroit in this game. It is a very important game for the Lions, while Green Bay is certainly “due” for a loss- especially considering a short travel week and the likelihood that they may be looking ahead to Dallas. However, I am going to go against all I know about football and say the Packers gut one out.

Packers 22, Lions 20

New York Jets at Dallas: Dallas got a little bit of a scare last week, but their dynamic offense was able to pull them through. They won’t struggle nearly as much this week.

Cowboys 34, Jets 17

Indianapolis at Atlanta: Two weeks ago, I said I could see Indy suffering some “post Patriot” letdown. After losing in San Diego and barely escaping the Chiefs last week, it looks like I may have been on to something. Luckily for the beat up Colts, the Falcons are a Turkey Day remedy.

Colts 31, Falcons 14

Buffalo at Jacksonville: The Jags are becoming more consistent, but I still don’t trust them fully to dispose of teams that they should beat. I see them winning this week, but not without a struggle.

Jaguars 19, Bills 15

Houston at Cleveland: The Texans are a different team with a healthy Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Look for a big upset in Cleveland this week.

Texans 27, Browns 24

Oakland at Kansas City: Somehow, at 4-6 , the Chiefs are managing to stay alive in the AFC West race. This should motivate them enough to beat the lagging Raiders in Arrowhead.

Chiefs 23, Raiders 20

Seattle at St. Louis: It looks like the Rams found a few cures for their various ailments during their bye week. Rolling the dice here that they pull off an upset.

Rams 26, Seahawks 21

Minnesota at New York Giants: The Vikings were able to simply run all over Oakland last week; they never had to put the pressure on their quarterback to makes plays. The same won’t hold true in the Meadowlands, where I see the Giants swarming the Vikings offense.

Giants 29, Vikings 10

Washington at Tampa Bay: Either the Redskins come out renewed and energized following their impressive effort in Dallas, or they fall flat on their faces, having nothing left in the tank. The trends favor Washington in this game despite the fact that Tampa is favored.

Redskins 21, Bucs 17

New Orleans at Carolina: The winner of this game will find themselves right in the race for the wildcard and possibly still alive for the division. The losers might as well start cleaning out their lockers. The Panthers have been miserable at home this year, and they enter the game with key injuries all over the field.

Saints 24, Panthers 20

Tennessee at Cincinnati: The Bengals are probably close to quitting, if they haven’t already. But I have a strange feeling that the Titans come out flat this week.

Bengals 27, Titans 17

San Francisco at Arizona: The 49ers have completely regressed following their encouraging 2006 season. They look to be back at square one. Simply an awful football team.

Cardinals 30, 49ers 14

Baltimore at San Diego: The Ravens defense just isn’t very good anymore. They certainly aren’t striking fear into quarterbacks as they once did. San Diego has officially been infected with “Norvitis,” but Baltimore will not be able to take advantage.

Chargers 24, Ravens 13

Denver at Chicago: Denver seems like the kind of team that will derail themselves as soon as you think they have things on track. Despite their struggles this year, I still think Chicago is a tough place to play this time of year.

Bears 17, Broncos 13

Philadelphia at New England: Next.

Patriots 45, Eagles 17

Miami at Pittsburgh: I think the Dolphins are about to pay for the Steelers loss in New York last week.

Steelers 35, Dolphins 16

4 To Score

1. Texans (+3.5) against the Browns. Really liking this line right now. I’m 7-3 on my locks of the week and feel pretty good about this one.
2. Redskins (+3) against the Bucs. Not a homer pick—only the second time I’ve included the Redskins on my spread picks this year.
3. Giants (-7) against the Vikings. Not buying the Vikings offensive “outburst” last week.
4. Eagles (+22) against the Patriots: Yeah, I know I picked NE to cover in my picks, but just on general principle—a 22 point spread in the NFL? Wow.