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Thread: Bill James projections

  1. #1
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    Bill James projections

    This may have been done already and i can't do it justice....but did anyone see the Bill James projections for 2008?

    Some Reds of note were Joey Votto with a .375 obp and a .586 slugging percentage.

    Hamilton's numbers were good --somewhere in the range of a .960-.980 OPS....39 homers.

    Eddy E. had 16 win shares- B. Phillips had 17....that surprised me until i looked into the numbers.

    I forgot to look up Bruce's projection.

    Dunn has a 7% chance at 700 hr's.


    As always -good stuff when he writes. Hopefully,i have remembered correctly.

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    If Votto posts a .961 OPS and Hamilton hits 40 homers, I honestly don't see how this team would miss the playoffs.

    The lineup would be ungodly good. Think of it.

    1. Hamilton (40 homers)
    2. Phillips (arounnd 30 homers and 30 stolen bases)
    3. Dunn (40+ homers, 100 RBIs)
    4. Griffey (around 30 homers, even if he gets hurt Bruce steps in)
    5. Edwin (around .300, alot of doubles, probably around 90 RBIs)
    6. Votto (.961 OPS)

    Then just put whoever as the bottom 3. Good luck stopping that.

  4. #3
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    If Votto posts a .961 OPS and Hamilton hits 40 homers, I honestly don't see how this team would miss the playoffs.

    The lineup would be ungodly good. Think of it.

    1. Hamilton (40 homers)
    2. Phillips (arounnd 30 homers and 30 stolen bases)
    3. Dunn (40+ homers, 100 RBIs)
    4. Griffey (around 30 homers, even if he gets hurt Bruce steps in)
    5. Edwin (around .300, alot of doubles, probably around 90 RBIs)
    6. Votto (.961 OPS)

    Then just put whoever as the bottom 3. Good luck stopping that.
    Pitching wins championships.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

  5. #4
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by StillFunkyB View Post
    Pitching wins championships.
    Hitting can get you into the playoffs though. Look at the Yankees.

  6. #5
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    I'll trade some hitting for some pitching and some banners and rings
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Bill James projections

    the park factor plays into things in a big way....iirc,itwas 104 over the last 3 years ...that puts it 2ndor 3rd in the nl.

    the homerun park factor came in around 128 for both right handers and lefties.....that's way up there.

    gabp is coors lite east.

  8. #7
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Hitting can get you into the playoffs though. Look at the Yankees.
    I think the Phillies are the ones you want to look at.

    The Yanks were in the middle of the pack in team ERA (4.48), and were barely half a run worse than the league best Red Sox (3.87).

    In other words, they had decent pitching (not decent FOR THE MONEY, but decent) and the best offense in the major leagues by far.

    By contrast, the Reds had an average offense and the league's worst pitching/defense combo.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  9. #8
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by StillFunkyB View Post
    Pitching wins championships.
    The Big Red Machine of 1975-76 says hi.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  10. #9
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    the park factor plays into things in a big way....iirc,itwas 104 over the last 3 years ...that puts it 2ndor 3rd in the nl.

    the homerun park factor came in around 128 for both right handers and lefties.....that's way up there.

    gabp is coors lite east.
    Maybe the Reds need a dehumidor.

  11. #10
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    The Big Red Machine of 1975-76 says hi.
    1976 BRM was 2nd in the NL in pitching.....
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  12. #11
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    This may have been done already and i can't do it justice....but did anyone see the Bill James projections for 2008?

    Some Reds of note were Joey Votto with a .375 obp and a .586 slugging percentage.

    Hamilton's numbers were good --somewhere in the range of a .960-.980 OPS....39 homers.

    Eddy E. had 16 win shares- B. Phillips had 17....that surprised me until i looked into the numbers.

    I forgot to look up Bruce's projection.

    Dunn has a 7% chance at 700 hr's.


    As always -good stuff when he writes. Hopefully,i have remembered correctly.
    If he hits 700 HR's this coming season, he needs to bat 4th.
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  13. #12
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Bill James 2008 Reds predictions: (The positions are my guess, not Bill James')

    Catcher:
    David Ross: 110 games, 330 ABs, .230/.310/.464 20 HRs
    Javier Valentin: 104, 290, .266/.326/.407 8 HRs

    1B
    Joey Votto: 135, 460, .307/.388/.526 23 HRs
    Scott Hatteburg: 55, 180 .272/.370/.394 4 HRs

    2B
    Brandon Phillips: 155, 630 .270/.318/.440 23 HRs
    Jorge Cantu: 75, 180, .272/.328/.456 6 HRs

    SS
    Alex Gonzales: 120, 425, .254/.308/.416 13 HRs
    Jeff Keppinger: 80, 255, .322/.382/.420 3 HRs

    3B
    Edwin Encarnacion: 137, 494, .296/.366/.490 20 HRs
    Ryan Freel: 114, 381, .265/.347/.367 5 HRs

    RF
    Ken Griffey Jr.: 125, 495, .263/.353/.487 29 HRs
    Jay Bruce: 143, 535 .308/.363/.602 36 HRs

    CF
    Josh Hamilton: 115, 410 .305/.382/.598 31 HRs
    Norris Hopper: 90, 220, .318/.362/.364 0 HRs

    LF
    Adam Dunn: 158, 566, .251/.386/.537 43 HRs


    Name: Games, ABs, .avg/.obp/.slg HRs

    These are all from the 2008 Bill James Handbook, published 11/07
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 11-24-2007 at 10:06 PM.
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  14. #13
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    Re: Bill James projections

    I hope Jay Bruce plays that much, but I just don't see him on the big club this year unless Jr. is traded.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  15. #14
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James projections

    I didn't know Bill James was still smoking. Pass some of that over here.

    Seriously, if Jay Bruce hits 36 HRs for the Reds this year, Skyline Chili is on me for everyone here. I would love to have to pay up on that bet. Cheese coneys, 3-ways, 4-ways, whatever your pleasure (save the Ellen jokes).

  16. #15
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    Re: Bill James projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I didn't know Bill James was still smoking. Pass some of that over here.

    Seriously, if Jay Bruce hits 36 HRs for the Reds this year, Skyline Chili is on me for everyone here. I would love to have to pay up on that bet. Cheese coneys, 3-ways, 4-ways, whatever your pleasure (save the Ellen jokes).
    Do you think he's not going to play enough or he simply isn't good enough to hit 36 HRs?


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