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Thread: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

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    Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Gotta love the incisive breakdown of the ripple effect on the Reds' pen -- Burton becoming an 11th/12th guy, Todd Coffey coming off a "terrific 2007."

    Wow. Such an expert has rarely been seen -- except on ESPN.com, of course.

    I don't get Insider, so I didn't see how he reconciled calling it a good signing and a bad signing all at once. (Good now, bad later.) My sense is that the guy is constitutionally incapable of praising certain franchises, and the Reds are one of them.
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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    I must have been watching a different Todd Coffey than he was...I didn't see anything "terrific"

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    perhaps he meant terrible-ific.
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    it says "tateriffic" as in, I believe, he gave up a lot of homeruns
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Keith Law hates the Reds like I hate the Cubs fans.

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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    The bit that could be had without Insider said

    Given how awful Cincinnati's bullpen was in 2007, going after relief pitching in the free-agent market was a sensible strategy; the Reds handed 270 innings over to 10 pitchers, none of whom could muster an ERA below 5.00 and six of whom posted ERAs over 6.00. And signing Francisco Cordero -- the best relief pitcher on the market -- also makes sense. Behind Cordero, there was a significant dropoff in quality among available relievers. But the size of Cordero's contract and especially its length doesn't make any sense at all.

    Cordero is easily the best reliever on the Reds' staff now, and he pushes David Weathers back into a setup role. Jon Coutlangus and Jared Burton can be 11th/12th men on a staff, and Todd Coffey's taterrific 2007 season was really out of character for him (12 homers allowed in 51 innings, after he allowed 12 homers total in 136 innings before '07), so there's some hope he can contribute in the middle.

    The Reds now don't have a good bullpen, but it's less dependent on guys like Kirk Saarloos and Mike Stanton and Gary Majewski to soak up innings, particularly if the Reds get a little creative and break 21-year-old right-hander Johnny Cueto in with some relief work. Adding Cordero should be worth about two wins to the Reds in 2008, maybe three if he ends up working in a lot of leveraged situations.
    He seems to be unaware that Saarloos was let go.
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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Here it is:

    Reds better with Cordero ... for nowposted: Monday, November 26, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry

    Given how awful Cincinnati's bullpen was in 2007, going after relief pitching in the free-agent market was a sensible strategy; the Reds handed 270 innings over to 10 pitchers, none of whom could muster an ERA below 5.00 and six of whom posted ERAs over 6.00. And signing Francisco Cordero -- the best relief pitcher on the market -- also makes sense. Behind Cordero, there was a significant dropoff in quality among available relievers. But the size of Cordero's contract and especially its length doesn't make any sense at all.

    Cordero is easily the best reliever on the Reds' staff now, and he pushes David Weathers back into a setup role. Jon Coutlangus and Jared Burton can be 11th/12th men on a staff, and Todd Coffey's taterrific 2007 season was really out of character for him (12 homers allowed in 51 innings, after he allowed 12 homers total in 136 innings before '07), so there's some hope he can contribute in the middle.

    The Reds now don't have a good bullpen, but it's less dependent on guys like Kirk Saarloos and Mike Stanton and Gary Majewski to soak up innings, particularly if the Reds get a little creative and break 21-year-old right-hander Johnny Cueto in with some relief work. Adding Cordero should be worth about two wins to the Reds in 2008, maybe three if he ends up working in a lot of leveraged situations.

    The question now is whether the Reds are getting what they think they're getting. Cordero lost the closer's job in Texas in early 2006, precipitating his inclusion in the Carlos Lee trade two months later. In 2007, he posted career-best walk and strikeout rates, but his stuff wasn't any better than it was in previous years, and while it's not unheard of for a pitcher to suddenly become a star at age 32, it's not common, either. He's also a flyball pitcher with a fairly straight fastball who's moving to a better home run park than the one in which he spent 2007.

    It's worth noting, too, that Cordero is now the second highest-paid reliever in baseball, making more in average annual salary on his new deal than the combined salaries of the four LCS closers in 2007. In fact, of the eight playoff teams in 2007, only two, the Indians and the Cubs, employed closers developed outside their organizations, and in Cleveland's case, that closer (Joe Borowski) was a castoff on a one-year, $4 million deal.

    The biggest problem with Cordero's contract is, of course, its ridiculous length. As I wrote in the article on the White Sox's signing of Scott Linebrink, of the 11 deals of three years or longer given to free agent relievers in the last two offseasons, three have already been busts and that number will reach five or six by the time those contracts are all through. Reliever performance is too volatile and their injury risk is too high for clubs to hand them three, four, or five years. It is irresponsible for any GM to give a reliever a four-year deal, but it's even more so when the deal soaks up over 10 percent of the signing team's payroll and the GM is only under contract for the first of those four years. There's way too much chance of this deal going south before it's over or even half over, even if it clearly does make the Reds better in 2008.
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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    The bit that could be had without Insider said



    He seems to be unaware that Saarloos was let go.
    Keith Law is unaware of a lot of things.

    Honestly, I think the guy would have a hard time counting his fingers and his toes.
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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    The bit that could be had without Insider said



    He seems to be unaware that Saarloos was let go.
    To me the context seems to suggest he was referring to guys with Saarloos' skillset rather than specifically to Saarloos himself (i.e. Saarloos' role of last year will be taken by someone better).
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    There's way too much chance of this deal going south before it's over or even half over, even if it clearly does make the Reds better in 2008.
    So, it's "ridiculous" for the team to get clearly better in 08 and 09 because there's too much of a chance that Cordero will bust by 2010.

    Better for the team to skulk back to the rear of the division, apparently. Notice no commentary whatsoever concerning the move's impact on the NL Central.
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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    it says "tateriffic" as in, I believe, he gave up a lot of homeruns
    Well, then that's different.....and accurate


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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    He's also a flyball pitcher with a fairly straight fastball who's moving to a better home run park than the one in which he spent 2007.
    A quick look at Cordero's profile on ESPN reveals that Law is lazy and uninformed.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...?playerId=4139

    Cordero is virtually the definition of a GB/FB neutral pitcher. His career ratio is 1.08. Aside from a slight FB tendency in his first brief stint in Milwaukee in 2006, he hasn't posted a flyball-leaning season since 2001.
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Gotta love the incisive breakdown of the ripple effect on the Reds' pen -- Burton becoming an 11th/12th guy, Todd Coffey coming off a "terrific 2007."

    Wow. Such an expert has rarely been seen -- except on ESPN.com, of course.

    I don't get Insider, so I didn't see how he reconciled calling it a good signing and a bad signing all at once. (Good now, bad later.) My sense is that the guy is constitutionally incapable of praising certain franchises, and the Reds are one of them.
    I think he is being a little more conservative than some on here when it comes to Burton. Maybe he isn't "11/12th man" material, but from the outside looking in it is a little tough to think this guy is a lock for a late inning job out of ST.

  15. #14
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    I wish I could get a nice paycheck to write stupid stuff.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Keith Law on the Cordero signing

    Keith Law ranked Cordero as the #4 Free Agent of the 2007-2008 offseason, behind A-Rod, Bonds, and Petite.

    So we go out and sign the best FA who was an option for us, filling a position of obvious need, and he rails us for it. If he's not going to be effective for more than 1 year, then why in God's name was he #4 on the Free Agent list? Ignore his low 2007 walk rate and have him return to his 2002-2006 level and he's still a very good reliever.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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