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Thread: Comps for top Reds prospects?

  1. #46
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Am I the only one a little disappointed when Jay Bruce is comped with Larry Walker....I mean Larry Walker was great, but I' hoping Bruce is even better.
    I agree comletely. If, indeed, Bruce is comparable to Larry Walker, I don't see him as "untouchable". However, if he is comparable to Griffey, as the Bats manager noted, I would have to make sure he was in a Reds uni for a long time. Bruce is being called a "once in a generation talent" by some. That seems to me to be a little more than Larry Walker ever was.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by FutureRedsGM View Post
    I agree comletely. If, indeed, Bruce is comparable to Larry Walker, I don't see him as "untouchable". However, if he is comparable to Griffey, as the Bats manager noted, I would have to make sure he was in a Reds uni for a long time. Bruce is being called a "once in a generation talent" by some. That seems to me to be a little more than Larry Walker ever was.
    Player A
    .290AVG .374OBP .553SLG 140OPS+

    Player B
    .313AVG .400OBP .565SLG 140OPS+

    Who is the better hitter?

  4. #48
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by mlbfan30 View Post
    Have you ever looked at Larry Walker's stats. His career .9654 OPS is 20th all-time in baseball. He has an MVP, 7 GG, 5 AS, 3 SS. He averaged 110/31/107 per 162 games. So your saying that the only way to not be disappointed would be for Bruce to not make the HOF, since Walker is a borderline HOF player.
    I may have drank too much Kool-Aid...but I tend to think Walker's stats were puffed up at Coors Field...maybe I am wrong. Regardless...yes, his stats are good...but the fact that the Reds are keeping their #1 bargaining chip completely off the table makes my expectations off the charts for Bruce. It seems the Reds could have Bedard,Haren,probably even Santana (who is en route to a hall of fame career) if they parted with Bruce. So all I am saying is he had better be worth holding on to. And believe me, I am rooting for him with all my heart. But honestly, I do hope he is better than Larry Walker.

  5. #49
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    In 1997 when Walker won the MVP award, his OPS at home was 1.169. His OPS on the road? 1.176. He had a few years with a higher road OPS than a home OPS, but also several the other way as well. Still, on the road during that time was over .900.

    Lets also not forget that Jay Bruce will be playing in Cincinnati, while not Coors in its day, its still a pretty friendly home run park.

  6. #50
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    I actually am struggling to find a site with Walker's career home/road stats. However, check this out.

    http://www.rotochamps.com/mlb-1052-Larry-Walker_5.html

    Go down to the bottom set of stats and click between home and road. Granted this is not during his prime seasons but the difference is remarkable. Also he was in STL a short amount of this time...I do realize. But the difference is dramatic. During the season that he hit over .350, he hit over .400 at home, and less than .300 on the road.

  7. #51
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    In 1997 when Walker won the MVP award, his OPS at home was 1.169. His OPS on the road? 1.176. He had a few years with a higher road OPS than a home OPS, but also several the other way as well. Still, on the road during that time was over .900.

    Lets also not forget that Jay Bruce will be playing in Cincinnati, while not Coors in its day, its still a pretty friendly home run park.
    Ok...I found his home/road splits on baseballreference.com. Now Doug...I love your insight and posts. But you threw that stat up there as if it shows he is an equally good hitter at home and on the road...that season he was. But over his career he has been significantly, and I mean significantly better at home. Let's just be fair here.

    OPS:

    1995 H 1.131
    A .845

    1996 H 1.248 (half season played)
    A .523

    1998 H 1.240
    A .891

    And finally...
    Career 1.068 Home
    .865 Away

  8. #52
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    And yet, with Walker having played in so many hitters parks, his OPS+ is the exactly the same as Griffey.

  9. #53
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Ok...I found his home/road splits on baseballreference.com. Now Doug...I love your insight and posts. But you threw that stat up there as if it shows he is an equally good hitter at home and on the road...that season he was. But over his career he has been significantly, and I mean significantly better at home. Let's just be fair here.

    OPS:

    1995 H 1.131
    A .845

    1996 H 1.248 (half season played)
    A .523

    1998 H 1.240
    A .891

    And finally...
    Career 1.068 Home
    .865 Away
    I can't read.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 12-12-2007 at 04:05 PM. Reason: Because I need glasses apparently

  10. #54
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    I'll take another Larry Walker...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  11. #55
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I'll take another Larry Walker...
    Would you let another Larry Walker hold up a deal for Haren or Santana???

  12. #56
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He didn't play his entire career in Coors. Over the time he was in Coor;s he put up a lot of .900 OPS seasons on the road. Between 1995 and 2003 he had these Road OPS seasons:
    845
    523 (with an absurd .135 BABIP!)
    1176 (higher than home OPS)
    923
    1044
    946 (higher than home OPS)
    1193 (higher than home OPS)
    920
    916 (higher than home OPS)

    In 4 out of his 9 seasons he had a higher road OPS than home OPS, including 7 seasons in a row with a 900 or higher OPS on the road.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...la01&year=2001

    Doug...it appears you messed up and are comparing his ops on lhp vs rhp for some seasons. Please repost and reconsider after viewing the correct stats.

  13. #57
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Would you let another Larry Walker hold up a deal for Haren or Santana???
    No, but thats not how this deal is. We are talking 6 years versus 2 and 3 years. Big Difference.

  14. #58
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, but thats not how this deal is. We are talking 6 years versus 2 and 3 years. Big Difference.
    Like I said above...there are a million scenarios all this trade talk could work out. It's going to be hard for me to be in favor of trading these guys for a 1 or 2 year rental...thats an easy one if you ask me. However...if you give up a prospect with Larry Walkeresque potential for a guy you can and are willing to lock up long term here....it should be considered.

  15. #59
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    I don't think the Reds are in the conversation to pay 20+ million for one player and that is what Santana is going to be getting. As for Haren, I would say he is looking at 15+ million easy once his contract is up given the market so long as he stays healthy.

  16. #60
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    Re: Comps for top Reds prospects?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...la01&year=2001

    Doug...it appears you messed up and are comparing his ops on lhp vs rhp for some seasons. Please repost and reconsider after viewing the correct stats.
    Well then color me blind. My bad.

    That said, I don't think that Jay is going to have those types of splits (home/road) because he has hit everywhere he has been.


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