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Thread: OFFICIAL: Cordero a Red

  1. #151
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    It's getting to the point the you're gonna have to pay $10M + for any top-end FA no matter their position - part of me still can't grasp that Gary Matthews Jr. got $10M+ and Juan Pierre close to $9M last year, but that is where the market has gone.

    There is a definite injury risk component with any contract of this size and it will certainly hurt the payroll if something happens to Cordero. More than a few here are all for extending Dunn for megabucks (myself included) , but the weight he carries and his advancing age may make that a riskier proposition than the Cordero deal.

    The fact is though, the acquisition of talent is going to be expensive in this market(in terms of talent and/or cash) no matter whether it's via FA or a trade.

    This organization decided it was serious about getting better and putting an improved product on the field for its fans, it identified the player on the market that probably makes the most dramatic improvement at a need position and the were agressive in signing him. Yeah, there is the potential for downside and I have been quick to be critical of this FO in the past, but not this time.

    I'm giving them porps for this deal and I'm not gonna turn on them in 8mos. if it somehow goes wrong (I'd have done the deal too. Dusty Baker is a different story though.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 11-24-2007 at 09:38 AM.

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  3. #152
    HS Athletic Director alexad's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    We may be a small market team, but we have an owner that wants to win NOW and has the money to do so. If you build it, they will come...... Spending money will only increase the attendance which results in more money, which results in the players salary. This team could be heading for a $90 million payroll and have the money to do it. Add 200,000 more fans in the seats and you paid for Cordero. I think the Reds could hit 3,000,000 fans this year if they keep adding PLUS players to the roster. One thing is for sure. Winning in Cincinnati brings out all the fans, die heart and bandwagoners.
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  4. #153
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    I'd be curious to see what the board would be saying if another NL Central team made this same deal. Teams all over the league got lambasted for signing guys like Lilly and Meche to similar contracts. While those guys aren't top talents in their respective fields, they do contribute more than 70 innings per year. Last year those contracts were idiotic, now this contract is in line with the market.

    Just curious. Carry on.

  5. #154
    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    Code:
    2) The Reds signed free agent P Francisco Cordero to a 4 year, $46 million contract, with an option for 2012.
    
    YEAR AGE RSAA  ERA     G  GS   IP    SO   SO/9 BR/9   W   L   SV  NW  NL  TEAM
    2005 27    9   3.39   69   0   69     79 10.30 12.39   3   1  37   3   1  Rangers     
    2006 28    8   3.70   77   0   75.1   84 10.04 12.42  10   5  22   8   7  Rangers/Brewers
    2007 29   10   2.98   66   0   63.1   86 12.22 10.09   0   4  44   3   1  Brewers     
    CAREER    87   3.29  470   0  506    528  9.39 12.49  26  27 177  36  17
    LG AVG     0   4.58           506    357  6.35 13.08  28  28
    0 Value Over Replacement Poster


    "Sit over here next to Johnathan (Bench)...sit right here, he's smart."--Sparky Anderson

  6. #155
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    Now is the time for the big deal. A lot of low dollar, high production players are on the cusp (not just the top four but a few guys that can fill other roles for cheap), the top two starters are locked up through 2010 and some money went off the books last year and more will go off next year.

    If the team can unload a few albatross deals (Stanton, Maybe Freel) this really doesn't jump the payroll that much. The revenue is going up as well.

    The Reds have a three or four year window and its time to make a run. The window may stay open longer if Bailey and Cueto can assume the Harang, Arroyo roles down the road and some younger guys can come up to supplement but the only known window of opportunity ends when Harang leaves. The Reds needed to add talent to take advantage of that window, so they spent on what was available to address a major weakness. I agree that the money is pricey for a closer and I'd rather have a starter too, but there simply aren't any. If Cordero does the job, the Reds could have a few cheap relievers with potential to add to the package for the needed starter.
    Last edited by mth123; 11-24-2007 at 10:00 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #156
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    This team could be heading for a $90 million payroll and have the money to do it. Add 200,000 more fans in the seats and you paid for Cordero.

    You think the Reds make $50 per patron? I know I don't spend that much.

    This is a risky move. This is not the small market model. You don't see teams like Minnesota, Oakland and Cleveland signing FA closers for 8 figure contracts. I hope the luck is with us on this one, but make no mistake this is a riverboat gamble...

  8. #157
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    For those who say the Reds cannot afford this move, please read some recent articles about record revenues in the industry, with revenue sharing likely coming the Reds' way. I would say "can't afford" is more a hangover from the Lindner/Allen era than being grounded in considering the current financial situation for both the team and the league in general. There is a lot of money out there and the Reds have finally decided to spend some of theirs. The only downside I see to this deal is the volatility of relievers, but that is inherent risk and is true of any reliever signing.

    Eddabs, comparing this signing to the Meche and Lilly deals is about as bad a comparison as the rotisserie "analyst" comparing Cordero and Weathers by blown saves. Further, many folks in favor of this move can hardly be called homers who approve of everything the Reds do and have no objectivity because its their team. While with any move there is downside, here years and dollars, homerism is the least likely explanation for excitement, especially on this board.
    Last edited by traderumor; 11-24-2007 at 10:07 AM.

  9. #158
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    You think the Reds make $50 per patron? I know I don't spend that much.

    This is a risky move. This is not the small market model. You don't see teams like Minnesota, Oakland and Cleveland signing FA closers for 8 figure contracts. I hope the luck is with us on this one, but make no mistake this is a riverboat gamble...
    If 5000 of those new fans are buying $200 seats then it could work out.

    This move might work out or it might end up being a BJ Ryan/Grahm Lloyd move.
    Go Gators!

  10. #159
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    You think the Reds make $50 per patron? I know I don't spend that much.

    This is a risky move. This is not the small market model. You don't see teams like Minnesota, Oakland and Cleveland signing FA closers for 8 figure contracts. I hope the luck is with us on this one, but make no mistake this is a riverboat gamble...
    The Twins, A's & Indians all have more developed farm systems too. The Reds could've waited another year (or two or three) for an in-house closer to develop, but weren't willing to wait that long to try and contend.

    This move allows them to develop those in-house options at their own speed and hopefully gives them an attractive trading piece (Cordero) a couple of years down the road for no cost in talent.

  11. #160
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    I learned firsthand myself, there's one player who will make the biggest impact in winning and losing titles in modern baseball; the firebreathing monster who comes in the end and shuts the game down. The modern closer has changed the game and he's changed the way I'll always think about building a staff.

    In most games you have 27 outs to score your runs, good closers cut those numbers, good bullpens drop those to 21 outs or even 18 a game.


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  12. #161
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    The Reds can afford it. It probably took up the rest of 2008's budget, but as for 2009 and beyond, they should have at least $10-15M free. If the Reds sign Adam Dunn to an extension, then you can make an argument that they'll be hamstrung by the big contracts, but really, are there much safer bets for that kind of money than Adam Dunn, Francisco Cordero, and Aaron Harang?

  13. #162
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    And another thing...

    Why should the Reds follow the "small market model?" As has been shown many times, the Reds are a sleeping giant with an adequate fan base to spend like the big boys. A suggestion for the "small market" believers. Buy the 1975 WS DVD collection, watch the games, and remind yourself that Cincy was once the center of the baseball universe and has the potential to be once again.
    Last edited by traderumor; 11-24-2007 at 10:15 AM.

  14. #163
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I'd be curious to see what the board would be saying if another NL Central team made this same deal. Teams all over the league got lambasted for signing guys like Lilly and Meche to similar contracts. While those guys aren't top talents in their respective fields, they do contribute more than 70 innings per year. Last year those contracts were idiotic, now this contract is in line with the market.

    Just curious. Carry on.
    Edabbs, you were right last year. I can't speak for anyone else, but I truly thought that the Meche, Zito and Lilly deals among others were bad last year because I expected those guys to get shelled and they pitched better than expected. If I would have believed that they would pitch well, I wouldn't have had any qualms about the $. I feel the same way this year concerning this crop of starters. I wouldn't give this deal to Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse. The difference here is that I expect Cordero to be an above average closer. I don't mind when money is spent to add talent, I just was averse to spending on guys I wasn't real high on from a pitching perspective.

    Another thing about this deal, I know that the conventional wisdom is that a pitcher who only throws 70 Innings can't have enough impact to justify a huge % of the payroll, but I believe that adding a guy like Cordero has an effect on every game even when he doesn't pitch. He makes Weathers available for the 8th when a game is getting out of hand. He allows you to use Burton to come in and get a K in the 6th with men on base. Just looking at his 70 innings doesn't tell the whole story of his effect on the pen. The Bullpen, more than any other area on the roster is discretionary from batter to batter and situation to situation. You can use your low dollar and/or poorer performing filler in spots where they can soak up some meaningless innings and save your better performers for when you need them. But, in the end, you have to have enough better performers to make it work. You can't pitch the good guys every day so you need depth. One way to get that depth is to try and acquire two or three middle level guys who individually don't cost all that much, but we've seen what happens with that approach. You expend talent like Kearns, Lopez and Germano and still spend significant dollars collectively on guys like Cormier, Stanton and Saarloos. I think if your going to commit so much in the way of resources, you may as well go big and get a blue chip guy and acheive your depth by pushing everyone esle down a notch. Looking back, a deal like this would have been much less costly than going the other route.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #164
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement



    WOY, that's a great quote and a position I've come to agree with 100 percent. And Whitey just touches on the tangible part of it. The intangibles of having a bad bullpen are real also. I know a lot of people here aren't big on discussing intangibles, but teams that consistently blow leads eventually have their spirit crushed. Lord knows we saw that look from the Reds last season.

    Anyway, you MUST have a good back end of the bullpen to be good. This is a step toward that. A huge step.

  16. #165
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    Re: Reds, Cordero reach preliminary agreement

    Small market for the Reds means that the team has stunk for a while and the number of people who want to see them is small. Redleg Nation when the team was consistently good, from '61-'81, went from Iowa and Nebraska to South Carolina, and down to Tennessee. The Reds Radio Network broadcast there in those years. That's no small market. The Yankees are "big market," or the biggest spenders today, for one reason--the amount of revenue they generate from television. Steinbrenner once told Lindner that he could not sell a ticket to Yankee Stadium all year and make more than Lindner if the Reds sold out the season because of the TV. Part of that is New York being a media center, but part is having a product people badly want to buy. They also have an extremely savvy business management that came up with and negotiated a model to maximize television profits. The ability to do that came not from the size of the market but from having a consistently good team that people want to watch. If the Yankees stunk they would not have the YES network, and would not have nearly as big a payroll. If the Reds put a good team on the field for five years in a row, they could create their own channel, broadcast it throughout the midwest, and put themselves in the upper tier of spenders.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill


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