Rule 5 Draft Discussion

[Danny Serafini]

Here are Apodaca's numbers:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-Apodaca.shtml

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

RHP Sergio Valenzuela -- HT: 6'0" WT: 175 DOB: 11/15/84
2003 DSL1 6-2, 0.96 ERA, 65.2 IP, 34 H, 12 BB, 56 SO
Named pitcher of the year for DSL1 in 2003.
He was good at one time, maybe there was an injury of some sort and he is on his way back?

[redsmetz]

Here are Apodaca's numbers:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-Apodaca.shtml

MIght not be a bad pickup. We are so thin at the catching position in our system. I'm guessing he helps down there.

[lollipopcurve]

It's the Rule V, folks. These players are long. long, longshots. The Hamilton/Burton bonanza last year was absolutely unprecedented -- don't expect anything like that to happen again. And, shouldn't last year's success earn the guys doing the drafting the benefit of the doubt with this selection?

The kid is young. Despite recent poor performance, the Braves did have him up in high A for awhile last year, which constituted a level jump, I think. He pitched pretty well in the Mexican league this winter, where most of the players are older, with a couple of very nice starts. No home runs allowed in 30+ innings. Splits versus lefties look good.

I have to think the selection is based on scouting him this winter. Clearly the Braves thought enough of him to be using him primarily as a starter, and that's how he was being used in Mazatlan this winter, too. We'll see what Krivsky says about him....

[BRM]

From Rotoworld:

Marlins selected RHP Carlos Guevara from the Reds with the fifth pick in the Rule 5 draft.

It's about time someone gambled on Guevara, as the Reds had absolutely no interest in using the screwball specialist. There's good reason to doubt his ability to pitch in the majors, but the Reds wouldn't even give him a chance to pitch in Triple-A. He had a 2.32 ERA and an 87/23 K/BB ratio in 62 innings at Double-A Chattanooga last season.

[AmarilloRed]

There is probably so much negative reaction because we have lost both Guevara and Cantu to acquire Valenzeula. He is a longshot, but if he doesn't make the 25 roster this looks like a
very bad move by Krivsky.

[mbgrayson]

From C. Trent:

The early line on Valenzuela -- three pitches, plus fastball, plus change and a slider.

"Winter ball pretty much finalized it for me," "J" Harrison said. "He caught my attention with some of the things he did with his delivery and his strength. He just looked like a guy who was underdeveloped and with some room for growth."

Harrison said he's seen Valenzuela listed at 6-0, 175 -- but said he's a solid 6-3 1/2 and 200 pounds.

[mbgrayson]

There is probably so much negative reaction because we have lost both Guevara and Cantu to acquire Valenzeula. He is a longshot, but if he doesn't make the 25 roster this looks like a
very bad move by Krivsky.

You can't really say we lost BOTH of these two. We only had room to keep one or the other on the 40 man....not both.

[AmarilloRed]

Reds acquire Valenzuela in Rule 5 Draft
Club plucks 23-year-old righty from Braves organization
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

Sergio Valenzuela was 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in 32 games in 2007. (Joy R. Absalon/MiLB.com)

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Despite all of the scouting and time evaluating players, selecting someone in the Rule 5 Draft is often a crapshoot.

The Reds were fortunate to score two productive players last year in Josh Hamilton and Jared Burton; both had nice 2007 seasons. In this year's Rule 5 selection, they're hoping for a similar outcome in right-handed pitcher Sergio Valenzuela.

By taking Valenzuela from the Braves organization on Thursday, the Reds had to look past the 23-year-old's numbers, because they weren't very good. He was 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in 32 games, including five starts, at high Class A Rome and Double-A Myrtle Beach.

"Winter ball pretty much finalized it for me," said J. Harrison, the Reds' director of pro scouting. "One of our good scouts out west got a chance to see him. I saw him in a trip over to Mexico as well. It was a bullpen-type deal and he caught my attention on some of the things he did with his delivery and his strength. He looked like a guy that was underdeveloped that had some room for growth."

Harrison later dispatched scout Rex De La Nuez to track Valenzuela as a starter in Mexican Winter League games. The Reds liked the pitcher's mid-90s fastball and above average changeup and think he has an average slider.

"We got a chance to do some homework on him," Harrison said. "He's still got some development left. He's a guy we think can compete, contribute and eventually evolve into a starter-type for us. That's an area we need to continue, to stockpile as many starters as we can."

The Reds paid $50,000 to select Valenzuela. He must remain on the club's 25-man roster all season or be offered back to the Braves for $25,000. If he makes Cincinnati's roster out of Spring Training, he'd likely slot into the bullpen as a long or middle reliever. But he is projected long-term as a starter.

Valenzuela is not related to Fernando Valenzuela, although he did grow up in the same region of Mexico as the former Dodgers pitcher.

"We saw a little bit cleaner delivery, but we hope he has the same type of makeup," Harrison said. "Some kids come along late, and we hope this is an example of that. We've heard nothing but good things. We like to treat it like stocks sometimes and hope you can catch them good when they're down in terms of his numbers."

Cincinnati also lost a player to the Rule 5 Draft in pitcher Carlos Guevara. The right-hander was picked by the Marlins and then traded to the Padres. Guevara was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 51 relief appearances last season with Double-A Chattanooga.

In the Triple-A phase, the Reds took catcher Juan Apodaca from the Dodgers and traded him to the Red Sox for cash considerations. The Reds also lost right-handed pitcher Jose Rojas to the A's organization. Rojas pitched at Class A Dayton and Sarasota last season.

Mark Sheldon is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

[AmarilloRed]

You can't really say we lost BOTH of these two. We only had room to keep one or the other on the 40 man....not both.

We could have released another player on the 40 man roster instead of Cantu. There were future considerations at stake, however, so I imagine that is the reason why Cantu was released. We could have protected Guevara, but the decision was made to protect other players instead.

[redsmetz]

The Reds also lost Jose Rojas in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 draft - was with Sarasota last year. He was 2-4 in his career over two years at Dayton and Sarasota, with a 3.97 ERA.

[mlbfan30]

I don't get what "future considerations" have to do with anything.
The deal included "future considerations", but why does dumping him suddenly negate that.
I also really don't get why the Reds would rather have Castro and Valenzuela over Cantu and Guevara.
And dumping the catcher after picking him up made little sense right? He just needed to be on the AAA roster?

[dougdirt]

I don't get what "future considerations" have to do with anything.
The deal included "future considerations", but why does dumping him suddenly negate that.
I also really don't get why the Reds would rather have Castro and Valenzuela over Cantu and Guevara.
And dumping the catcher after picking him up made little sense right? He just needed to be on the AAA roster?

Maybe the future considerations were 'if he is on the roster in 2008, you owe us another play from this list'? We don't know what those considerations were.

[redsmetz]

I don't get what "future considerations" have to do with anything.
The deal included "future considerations", but why does dumping him suddenly negate that.
I also really don't get why the Reds would rather have Castro and Valenzuela over Cantu and Guevara.
And dumping the catcher after picking him up made little sense right? He just needed to be on the AAA roster?

I think the "future considerations" with Cantu means he was going to be arbitration eligible and we didn't care to assume what we could have to pay to him in that process.

With regards to the catcher going to Boston - my guess is that Boston wanted him, we weren't planning on taking anyone ourselves and they asked us to get this guy for a prearranged amount in a trade. It's really no different than what we did with Hamilton last year. We reached agreement with the Cubs that they would take a player for us and agreed to a price. They didn't know at the time that it would be Hamilton. Probably the same thing happened here.

[corkedbat]

I predict that Senor Valenzuela falls victim to a mysterious chronic hangnail-related malady that periodically subsides enough to allow Louisville rehab stints and ironically, just enough games on the 25-man roster to meet Rule V requirements.