Turn Off Ads?

View Poll Results: Who is the Reds #10 Prospect?

Voters
91. You may not vote on this poll
  • Chris Dickerson

    3 3.30%
  • Danny Dorn

    14 15.38%
  • Carlos Fisher

    8 8.79%
  • Juan Francisco

    1 1.10%
  • Carlos Guevara

    2 2.20%
  • Sam Lecure

    1 1.10%
  • Kyle Lotzkar

    10 10.99%
  • Devin Mesoraco

    27 29.67%
  • Tyler Pelland

    6 6.59%
  • Adam Rosales

    5 5.49%
  • Neftali Soto

    0 0%
  • Daryl Thompson

    3 3.30%
  • Justin Turner

    1 1.10%
  • Chris Valaika

    0 0%
  • Pedro Viola

    3 3.30%
  • Brandon Waring

    4 4.40%
  • Sean Watson

    3 3.30%
  • Other (specify in thread)

    0 0%
Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 66

Thread: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,581

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm all for taking his 200 ABs with a grain of salt. Heck, gimme a bucket of salt.

    As for his tools, what I've read leads me to believe he's the typicle "toolsy" catcher, which is code for catch-and-throw skills. Would he be a toolsy OF? Would we be talking about his power, speed and ability to hit for average at that position. I highly doubt it.
    Well there is a large difference between being a toolsy outfielder and being a toolsy catcher. What you take out of a scouting report isn't what I take out of it. I know that you know there is a large difference between the hitting expectations of a catcher and the hitting expectations of an outfielder, so trying to use it as an example to downgrade him is being a little silly in my mind.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,271

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    M2, you sound like you are really offended that someone thinks Mesoraco is deserving of a Top 10 ranking. Is it really all that concerning that someone likes his package of tools and defensive abilities and is willing to not put a ton of stock into 138 at bats compared to someones scouting report? And yeah, you are going to be hard pressed to find any prospect fresh out of high school that is a 'complete prospect'.
    I'm unimpressed, not offended.

    Plus, I've lost count of how many times I've been told a catcher with no outstanding offensive talents has great tools. We'll see if Mesoraco ever amounts to more than Terry McGriff. If he doesn't have a big bat, then he's not a complete prospect, which is what you should be shopping for in the middle of the first round.

    He had a chance to backup the hype this summer and didn't. Until he does, I'd suggest a healthy dose of skepticism.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,581

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm unimpressed, not offended.

    Plus, I've lost count of how many times I've been told a catcher with no outstanding offensive talents has great tools. We'll see if Mesoraco ever amounts to more than Terry McGriff. If he doesn't have a big bat, then he's not a complete prospect, which is what you should be shopping for in the middle of the first round.

    He had a chance to backup the hype this summer and didn't. Until he does, I'd suggest a healthy dose of skepticism.
    Had Mesoraco not played an ounce because he signed late, I think you would have a different opinion of him. Instead he had all of 138 at bats in which he was swinging with 2 injured thumbs and you are unimpressed. I am unworried by 138 at bats. You obviously are very worried by them.

  5. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,271

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well there is a large difference between being a toolsy outfielder and being a toolsy catcher.
    There shouldn't be. It's a major industry blind spot and one of the chief reasons so much money and hope has been wasted over the years on catchers who never manage to produce at the plate.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    What you take out of a scouting report isn't what I take out of it.
    I definitely don't take them an unassailable statements of fact if that's what you mean. I've certainly seen enough bluster from scouts over the years to be wary.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I know that you know there is a large difference between the hitting expectations of a catcher and the hitting expectations of an outfielder, so trying to use it as an example to downgrade him is being a little silly in my mind.
    And if Mesoraco had been a third or fourth round pick, I wouldn't have to mention this stuff. Then we'd all view him more akin to what he is, a kid with catching tools and perhaps a nascent clue at the plate who'll need to advance with his offense before he merits top 10 consideration.

    I don't expect a catcher to hit like an OF most of the time, unless you're telling me said catcher is a first round talent. Then he'd better have a stick.

    But don't do expect me to fall for the classic catcher "tools" bait and switch. Mesoraco doesn't have big tools on offense. He's not overly strong. He's not that fast. He isn't a dynamic hitter. Maybe he's toolsier than what you'd normally get in a catcher, but tools is tools and it's a false claim to state that Mesoraco possesses them in abundance.
    Last edited by M2; 11-29-2007 at 02:00 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #20
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,271

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Had Mesoraco not played an ounce because he signed late, I think you would have a different opinion of him. Instead he had all of 138 at bats in which he was swinging with 2 injured thumbs and you are unimpressed. I am unworried by 138 at bats. You obviously are very worried by them.
    No, I didn't like him before the draft for the same reasons. What he did after the draft only reinforced what any rational person should have suspected about a HS catcher from central PA whose tools did not include big offensive skills. Don't read that as me saying he can't be good someday, just that he's got a lot farther to go than anyone wanted to admit on draft day.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,581

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    There shouldn't be. It's a major industry blind spot and one of the chief reasons so much money and hope has been wasted over the years on catchers who never manage to produce at the plate.
    I disagree. In the history of baseball the number of catchers who would be able to survive offensively as outfielder is very few. The number of outfielders who could survive as a catcher offensively is probably in the 90% range.

    And if Mesoraco had been a third or fourth round pick, I wouldn't have to mention this stuff. Then we'd all view more akin to what he is, a kid with catching tools and perhaps a nascent clue at the plate who'll need to advance with his offense before he merits top 10 consideration.
    I just put more into scouts across major league baseball who had him as one of the top 20-25 prospects available this year than you do. Thats fine, but that alone is reason enough for me to put him in the Top 10. If the Reds entire system were put into this years draft do you really think someone would draft Carlos Fisher before Mesoraco?

    I don't expect a catcher to hit like an OF most of the time, unless you're telling me said catcher is a first round talent. Then he'd better have a stick.
    Well, that seems to be a major difference. I like his bats potential. You seemingly don't.

    But don't do expect me to fall for the classic catcher "tools" bait and switch. Mesoraco doesn't have big tools on offense. He's not overly strong. He's not that fast. He isn't a dynamic hitter. Maybe he's toolsier than what you'd normally get in a catcher, but tools is tools and it's a false claim to state that Mesoraco possesses them in abundance.
    He has no tools that aren't better than average. He can run decently. He has a great arm, he projects to hit well for both average and for power and he can play defense. What tools am I missing?

  8. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,176

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    As for his tools, what I've read leads me to believe he's the typicle "toolsy" catcher, which is code for catch-and-throw skills.
    I don't think so. Mesoraco shows plus bat speed, decent contact rate, good power, good agility, above average speed for a catcher -- beyond the catch and throw skills. He's just a better "baseball athlete" than most catchers. We also saw that he'll take a walk -- usually a hallowed trait around here. He's got a long way to go, obviously, but for me he remains a good prospect at the thinnest of all positions -- a nice thing to have in your system.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  9. #23
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,176

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    No, I didn't like him before the draft for the same reasons. What he did after the draft only reinforced what any rational person should have suspected about a HS catcher from central PA whose tools did not include big offensive skills.
    So? You loved Matt Dominguez despite well-known suspicions about his long swing, and his performance at the plate seemed to bear out those suspicions. Just rattling your cage here, but I wouldn't go making claims about rationality when evaluating prospects -- we're all working off hunches and biases to a certain extent, and we're all wrong a lot.

    The mitigating factors for Mesoraco were reported to be 2 injured thumbs and adjusting to catching in the brutal midsummer heat in Florida (following a full HS season of catching). I can accept those explanations. And, it's well known the GCL can be tough for HS players -- witness the opening seasons of players like Jeter and Chipper Jones. In my opinion, there's enough information there to leave open the possibility that Mesoraco will show significantly better next year. If he doesn't, then I'd start to get worried, too.

    Anyway, I'm voting Lotzkar, as usual.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #24
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,271

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I disagree. In the history of baseball the number of catchers who would be able to survive offensively as outfielder is very few. The number of outfielders who could survive as a catcher offensively is probably in the 90% range.
    Outfielders also tend to have longer, steadier careers. Shouldn't prospect valuation reflect that? If you're looking at an OF prospect who has real tools and a catcher who's got all right tools for a catcher, it's not the same the thing. You're acknowledging it's not the same thing. That's the point.

    By and large catchers don't have tools and the industry's habit of pretending they do is a massive inefficiency. So, unless your catcher prospect really could make it as an OF, you're probably better off not blowing seven figures on him.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I just put more into scouts across major league baseball who had him as one of the top 20-25 prospects available this year than you do. Thats fine, but that alone is reason enough for me to put him in the Top 10. If the Reds entire system were put into this years draft do you really think someone would draft Carlos Fisher before Mesoraco?
    I don't think someone would draft Carlos Fisher before Devin Mesoraco. I don't think someone would trade Devin Mesoraco for Carlos Fisher. But I do think that the stuff Fisher has demonstrated translates better to actually doing something positive in the majors than Mesoraco. And it doesn't have to be Fisher, the Reds have got a whole pile of guys I'd rank ahead of Mesoraco at this moment. If Mesoraco actually translates those supposed abilities onto the field, then I'd move him up, but I don't give unearned credit.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, that seems to be a major difference. I like his bats potential. You seemingly don't.
    I don't think much of anyone knows what his bat's potential is. Scouts think it looks all right for a catcher. That's damning a guy with faint praise. Apparently I'm making a radical suggestion when I make the case that his bat ought to be required to prove itself.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He has no tools that aren't better than average. He can run decently. He has a great arm, he projects to hit well for both average and for power and he can play defense. What tools am I missing?
    Run decently? What's that? Seriously, what does that mean? This isn't the Special Olympics, either the guy is fast or he's not. I've seen 15 HR power associated with Mesoraco, that's not power. What's his scouting grade on hit for average? I'd be in shock if it was above 55. In fact, I'd be in shock if his speed or power ranked above a 55 too. And if they don't, then don't tell me he's toolsy.

    We know he can throw and that he's got good actions behind the plate. Unfortunately that and a thoroughly pedestrian rest of the resume constantly gets overrated in the game of baseball.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #25
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,271

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So? You loved Matt Dominguez despite well-known suspicions about his long swing, and his performance at the plate seemed to bear out those suspicions. Just rattling your cage here, but I wouldn't go making claims about rationality when evaluating prospects -- we're all working off hunches and biases to a certain extent, and we're all wrong a lot.
    Agreed. Though let's be honest, we're talking about an industry with a well-documented history of catastrophic hunches on catchers.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    The mitigating factors for Mesoraco were reported to be 2 injured thumbs and adjusting to catching in the brutal midsummer heat in Florida (following a full HS season of catching). I can accept those explanations.
    I can accept them too, but we still don't know what he plays like even if we give a mulligan. It only means we're in "Let's see what we've got here" mode.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Anyway, I'm voting Lotzkar, as usual.
    I don't tend to rate pitchers until they get a year in full season ball, but Lotzkar demonstrated a lot more than Mesoraco. Where they were drafted means exactly nothing at this juncture. It's what they do that counts. If you're going to take a super green kids and project him, then I'd say Lotzkar is the right pick.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #26
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,581

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Outfielders also tend to have longer, steadier careers. Shouldn't prospect valuation reflect that? If you're looking at an OF prospect who has real tools and a catcher who's got all right tools for a catcher, it's not the same the thing. You're acknowledging it's not the same thing. That's the point.
    I don't know exactly how to answer that. What is more valuable a 10 year run as an above average catcher or a 15 year run as an average outfielder.... its a tough question to answer here.

    By and large catchers don't have tools and the industry's habit of pretending they do is a massive inefficiency. So, unless your catcher prospect really could make it as an OF, you're probably better off not blowing seven figures on him.
    Im not so much worried about what you feel the industry skews things to be. Could most shortstops make it as outfielders? No, but there is a reason Troy Tulowitski is incredibly valuable despite the fact that if he were an outfielder his bat would be middle of the road. Position matters. The idea of taking a catcher in the first round is generally one I stay away from, because they don't often pan out. That doesn't change the prospect that Mesoraco is.


    I don't think someone would draft Carlos Fisher before Devin Mesoraco. I don't think someone would trade Devin Mesoraco for Carlos Fisher. But I do think that the stuff Fisher has demonstrated translates better to actually doing something positive in the majors than Mesoraco. And it doesn't have to be Fisher, the Reds have got a whole pile of guys I'd rank ahead of Mesoraco at this moment. If Mesoraco actually translates those supposed abilities onto the field, then I'd move him up, but I don't give unearned credit.
    Well again its where we have a difference in how we view prospects.... especially guys with literally 138 at bats under their belt. Scouting reports and tools will trump on field performance every day of the week in that case for me.


    I don't think much of anyone knows what his bat's potential is. Scouts think it looks all right for a catcher. That's damning a guy with faint praise. Apparently I'm making a radical suggestion when I make the case that his bat ought to be required to prove itself.
    Well all his bat has to play for is as a catcher. Until he moves to another position, shouldn't he be evaluated as a catcher? Why should he be evaluated as something else?


    Run decently? What's that? Seriously, what does that mean? This isn't the Special Olympics, either the guy is fast or he's not. I've seen 15 HR power associated with Mesoraco, that's not power. What's his scouting grade on hit for average? I'd be in shock if it was above 55. In fact, I'd be in shock if his speed or power ranked above a 55 too. And if they don't, then don't tell me he's toolsy.
    I have seen anywhere from 15-25 HR associated with him. Again, a 55 for average, especially when talking about a catcher is quite good. Catcher don't hit for average. So a guy who hits .260 or .270 as a catcher is on the right path. As for speed, he is above average, but he isn't a burner. Thats what I was trying to say with 'runs decently'.

    We know he can throw and that he's got good actions behind the plate. Unfortunately that and a thoroughly pedestrian rest of the resume constantly gets overrated in the game of baseball.
    Except we don't know what hes capable of in the rest of his game being that he has 138 injured in both hands at bats on his professional resume.

  13. #27
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,176

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Agreed. Though let's be honest, we're talking about an industry with a well-documented history of catastrophic hunches on catchers.
    This is true. But I think what's happening is that the industry is realizing that the position is alarmingly thin. American kids don't want to catch.

    I can accept them too, but we still don't know what he plays like even if we give a mulligan. It only means we're in "Let's see what we've got here" mode.
    Exactly. I haven't scrawled out my personal top ten, but he may not be on it.

    I don't tend to rate pitchers until they get a year in full season ball, but Lotzkar demonstrated a lot more than Mesoraco. Where they were drafted means exactly nothing at this juncture. It's what they do that counts.
    I know I'm on a limb with Lotzkar. But I value high ceilings, and this kid dominated at times as a true 17 year old. Impressive.


    [/QUOTE]
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #28
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,891

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    No way for Mesoraco here. I'm still deciding between Dorn and Lotzkar
    Go BLUE!!!

  15. #29
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,271

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    most shortstops make it as outfielders? No, but there is a reason Troy Tulowitski is incredibly valuable despite the fact that if he were an outfielder his bat would be middle of the road. Position matters.
    Tulo looks like he's going to be an .850+ OPS SS. That would make him a fine OF, 50 points better than the average RF. Yeah, position matters, but Tulo's giving you a nice representation for the kind of complete package you should be looking for in a top pick at SS, C or 2B.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The idea of taking a catcher in the first round is generally one I stay away from, because they don't often pan out. That doesn't change the prospect that Mesoraco is.
    The first part of what you wrote there ought to lead to the question of wheter Mesoraco really is what he's being hyped to be.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well again its where we have a difference in how we view prospects.... especially guys with literally 138 at bats under their belt. Scouting reports and tools will trump on field performance every day of the week in that case for me.
    I don't think the 138 ABs define him, nor do I think the scouting reports define him. That's the problem. He's undefined.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well all his bat has to play for is as a catcher. Until he moves to another position, shouldn't he be evaluated as a catcher? Why should he be evaluated as something else?
    His offensive skills should be evaluated as offensive skills. That's the bait and switch. People buy into the line that he's got tools, but it's not tools, it's tools for a catcher, which could mean he'll be a .260 hitter, with 10 SB and 15 HR.

    And I'm fine with that kind of production behind the plate, in fact I value it quite highly, but it's not silence-in-the-room-because-I-gotta-pay-full-attention-to-this-guy skills.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I have seen anywhere from 15-25 HR associated with him. Again, a 55 for average, especially when talking about a catcher is quite good. Catcher don't hit for average. So a guy who hits .260 or .270 as a catcher is on the right path. As for speed, he is above average, but he isn't a burner. Thats what I was trying to say with 'runs decently'.
    Exactly. He's not fast and he doesn't have big offensive skills. He rates as a fairly average guy with the bat. No one's accusing him of being Joe Mauer or Russ Martin at this moment, which, I'm guessing, is what a lot of people are imagining for Mesoraco. He doesn't have an abundance of tools, he's just not as tools devoid as your average catcher.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except we don't know what hes capable of in the rest of his game being that he has 138 injured in both hands at bats on his professional resume.
    That's the point - we don't know. I'm saying we might want to hold off of rating him too highly until we do.
    Last edited by M2; 11-29-2007 at 03:21 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,581

    Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Exactly. He's not fast and he doesn't have big offensive skills. He rates as a fairly average guy at with the bat. No one's accusing him of being Joe Mauer or Russ Martin at this moment, which, I'm guessing, is what a lot of people are imagining for Mesoraco. He doesn't have an abundance of tools, he's just not as tools devoid as your average catcher.
    Again, you are trying to compare him to other positions. Why should he have to be compared against other positions when he doesn't play them? Should he have to be as toolsy as Chris Dickerson to be considered toolsy? Surely not. Just like in evluating how good a player someone is, a .300/.360/.460 shortstop is a lot stronger than a .300/.360/.460 corner outfielder..... Fact is, tools wise, he is well ahead of most other catchers, and that is how he should be evaluated.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25