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Thread: How about Hamilton for Hill?

  1. #46
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    ESPN is silly. You have to hit the ball a mile to get it out in LA.

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  3. #47
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Historically for sure. These days, not so much. Even Aaron Harang only averaged 6.2 innings a start this past year.
    Harang averaged just shy of 7--6.88, I believe? That's a massive gulf over a season.

  4. #48
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Maybe. 6 innings a start is still pretty pedestrian, in my opinion.

    He's 28 next season, too.

    I'd obviously take him, but I have a sneaking suspicion he'd implode in GABP, with this defense.

    For the record, Wrigley used to be an offensive park when NL parks overall were bigger. But nowadays it plays as a neutral park; it has for many seasons, using park factor calculations much more nuanced than ESPN's--and taking many years' data into consideration, not just this year's. Wrigley is neutral. That's all but an established fact. GABP is a HR nightmare; though not altogether an *offensive* nightmare. Trouble is, Hill's Achilles' heel is the gopher ball. For what it's worth, the ESPN park factor thingy says Dodger Stadium is a hitter's park and The Ballpark at Arlington is a pitcher's park. Beware small samples and poor metrics.
    In the pitching trifecta (command, make 'em miss, batted ball tendencies), FB tendencies aren't fatal if a pitcher excels at the two more important attributes. Hill already has above-average command and Krates for a starter and both are likely to improve a little more as he develops. While it's true that FB pitchers aren't the ideal fit in the homer-prone environment of GABP, the post-injury Milton shouldn't be the final say in whether a fly ball pitcher can be successful pitching half of his games at GAPB...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #49
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    In the pitching trifecta (command, make 'em miss, batted ball tendencies), FB tendencies aren't fatal if a pitcher excels at the two more important attributes. Hill already has above-average command and Krates for a starter and both are likely to improve a little more as he develops. While it's true that FB pitchers aren't the ideal fit in the homer-prone environment of GABP, the post-injury Milton shouldn't be the final say in whether a fly ball pitcher can be successful pitching half of his games at GAPB...
    As I said, HIll turns 28 this March; if I'm betting, I'd say we're looking at the "fully developed" Hill. He might plateau from here, but I doubt he's going to jump up over a 3:1 K:B ratio. If anything, he's more likely to regress.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 11-29-2007 at 09:01 PM.

  6. #50
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    As I said, HIll turns 28 this March; if I'm betting, I'd say we're looking at the "fully developed" Hill. He might plateau from here, but I doubt he's to going jump up over a 3:1 K:B ratio. If anything, he's more likely to regress.
    I'm not so sure about that. I mean, I can see him falling a bit off his 2007 numbers, but he looks like a fairly solid pitcher.

    One thing that seems to be happening these days is you've got a class of pitchers who are maturing later, or at least taking extra time to settle in as major leaguers. My guess is it's a symptom of smaller parks and better hitters, which narrows the margin for error on the mound. Look at Harang and Arroyo. They were both 27 when they broke through, same as Hill.
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  7. #51
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Perhaps I'm off quite a bit, but I'm still reeling from a 2007 season that saw Josh Hamilton OPS at a .922 clip after 5 years of not playing the game. To patrol the outfield adequately without having the benefit of experiencing major league parks or hitters from a defensive vantage point. To have a howitzer for a throwing arm...and a great knack for baserunning.

    The reward for a healthy Josh Hamilton with a year or two is an MVP candidate.

    The reward for a healthy Rich Hill is?

    I don't like the injuries of last year....or even the risk of a fall from his recovery. But my goodness....380K for a player of his potential...and there's thoughts of moving him for nothing special at all?

    I can not wait for 2007 to open w/ Josh in the mix.
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  8. #52
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    The reward for a healthy Rich Hill is?
    A pitching rotation that might actually be good enough to get the team to the playoffs.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #53
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm not so sure about that. I mean, I can see him falling a bit off his 2007 numbers, but he looks like a fairly solid pitcher.

    One thing that seems to be happening these days is you've got a class of pitchers who are maturing later, or at least taking extra time to settle in as major leaguers. My guess is it's a symptom of smaller parks and better hitters, which narrows the margin for error on the mound. Look at Harang and Arroyo. They were both 27 when they broke through, same as Hill.
    Again, as I said, he can and certainly might plateau--but I doubt he's going to improve much. I think he's developed, arrived, whatever. I think you're looking at the pitcher you can hope he'll be for a few more seasons. Provided he doesn't get hurt, or change to a HR ballpark.

    He's a good arm who would be less good moving into GABP. I'd certainly take him, but I'd be targeting a guy like Snell much sooner.

  10. #54
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Hill can help M2...but for Hamilton?


    I'd say pull the trigger yesterday for your Griff recommendation. But Hamilton? I just don't see any wisdom in trading down like that.
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  11. #55
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    Hill can help M2...but for Hamilton?

    I'd say pull the trigger yesterday for your Griff recommendation. But Hamilton? I just don't see any wisdom in trading down like that.
    How is that trading down? The team needs a pitcher. If you think Hill can be a good one, then it strikes me as arguing with the premise.

    The Reds would need to suss out whether they've got an OF who could make the deal in the first place. In a happy world, it's yes and Jr.'s the guy to go, but if Hamilton's the key to that door I say the Reds have to give it some serious thought. I'd probably wait through the winter meetings to see what else materializes. Yet if Hill's the best pitcher you can get at that point, then you've got to sit down and ask yourself whether it's more important to have 4 OFs or 3 quality starters.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  12. #56
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    How is that trading down? The team needs a pitcher. If you think Hill can be a good one, then it strikes me as arguing with the premise.

    The Reds would need to suss out whether they've got an OF who could make the deal in the first place. In a happy world, it's yes and Jr.'s the guy to go, but if Hamilton's the key to that door I say the Reds have to give it some serious thought. I'd probably wait through the winter meetings to see what else materializes. Yet if Hill's the best pitcher you can get at that point, then you've got to sit down and ask yourself whether it's more important to have 4 OFs or 3 quality starters.
    I'd be okay with trading Hamilton for Hill, provided there was a subsequent deal in place for a genuine CF. While Hamilton or Bruce would work there in a pinch, neither is the longterm answer (or frankly, when you consider the rest of this team's defense, much of a shortterm answer, either).

  13. #57
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    How about Dunn for Hill?
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  14. #58
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    How about Dunn for Hill?
    Then all of a sudden you've blown a massive hole in the hull of the offense.

  15. #59
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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Then all of a sudden you've blown a massive hole in the hull of the offense.
    But you've got your three quality starters and freed up 14 mil, right?

    I'm just not for giving up young, cheap, ridiculously talented players for #3 anythings.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Re: How about Hamilton for Hill?

    nm


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