I obviously trade Jr. (and whatever else) for Hill in a second. I'd trade Hamilton for Hill in two.
This team needs another starter, period. Or you can watch the 2008 version of JimBo's paradise.
Of course, his HR allowed numbers would probably go up a smidge in GAB, but I think to the tune of a 50% increase is as much a dart throw as making a prediction that Belisle will match Hill's numbers this year.
And, I am no great fan of Rich Hill, really haven't followed him much, but at a glance, he appears to have good basic numbers, and no one has pulled out the DIPS ERA "stay away" warning yet, so I'm assuming there is nothing hidden in his first two full years that causes bells and whistles to go off, other than a HR warning, which I simply think you are greatly exaggerating.
Last edited by traderumor; 11-29-2007 at 10:43 PM.
If he isn't ready, I'd let Hopper, Freel, and Dickerson battle it out. Ideal? No, but I'd rather worry about centerfield defense than pitching.
Or you could always take a flier on Corey Patterson. He's a FA I believe, and I wouldn't be strongly opposed to that.
"I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton
I think the $25M influx of cash (mentioned in another thread makes re-signing Adam much more plausible and if it's gonna get done it needs to be done no later than 1/1 (preferrably sooner).
If you can re-up him then Hamilton or Votto become more expendable in a deal for a top starter. If it is apparent that he is definitely going on the market, Hamilton, Votto and Bruce go no where.
If you can't (or if WK chooses not to) re-sign Dunn, then I see if I can't work with AD & his agent to find a way around the no-trade clause and get a list of teams he would accept a trade to. I'd ask them for what it might take for another team to keep him off the market so I could give the other team an idea in case of a 72-hr. wndow situation and I would make it clear that I wouldn't be crying "Tampering!" if they discreetly had some backdoor contacts to guage what's out there from his favored team(s).
Then I would work my best deal for him sooner than later.
If he stays and Votto were to go I would talk to him about moving to first down the road.
In addition, if somebody offers me anything of value for Junior I take it and I try to add a solid defensive CF (prefferably one who could hit leadoff). I would also try to make an offer of 2 or 3 secondary prospects (Rosales, Stubbs, Francisco, Janish, LeCure, Wood, Thompson, Watson, Pelland - maybe even Roenicke or Viola) and maybe a reliever (Salmon, McBeth, Majewski, Coutlangus) to th BoSox for Coco Crisp,
I wouldn't include a prime chip for Crisp though unless Lester or Bucholz were in the return, so that probably dooms a deal.
Last edited by corkedbat; 11-29-2007 at 11:34 PM.
But, I contend that exchanging Hamilton, providing he's healthy for a full season for Hopper or a rookie puts serious strain on Hill or a pitching staff that is just recovering from years of neglect and inept moves. I'm assuming that Hamilton, used correctly, will drive in 100+ runs (and that's a big assumption I know). Stand that with Hopper's 30 or Bruce's maybe 65 (and that's a stretch sincehe may be the next Brandon Larson). Would Rich Hill pitch well enough over a season to gain 40-65 runs? I doubt it.
Jay Bruce is so NOT Brandon Larson.
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
no way I would trade Josh Hamilton for Rich Hill. VR, I am right with you.
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
I wish I had $1 for every "can't miss" prospect who came to the majors. If that's the case, bring him up now and to Hades with whatever else we have. Trade Hamilton, who has proven himself, get rid of that albatross of a contract Griffey has, and get rid of lazy Adam Dunn and just let Jay shine. Sort of the anti-Denorfia who will surely be a triple crown winner in the AL at Oakland.
A wise old man once said a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. i'll take my chances with Hamilton over a kid who hasn't proved anything at the MLB level.
Since 1990, here is the list of Baseball America's #1 hitting prospect.
Joe Mauer (twice)
Andruw Jones (twice)
Chipper Jones (twice)
Andujar Cedeno (really, what were they thinking? He hit .303/.341/.452 that year in AAA at age 21. Young, but the best hitting prospect in baseball? Klesko, Mo Vaughn and Pudge Rodriguez also made the top 10 that year)
So yeah, I guess Cedeno was a huge miss, but really the rest of the guys were pretty good. Still pretty early on Young and Gordon....I don't think Bruce follows in Cedeno's footsteps though, considering what he did in AAA this year at age 20.
It's time to lock Dunn up and if it can't be done move him. Signing or coming to the realization that Dunn be moved is priority number 1. That decision goes a long way toward determining how many and which of the young bats can be moved. If Dunn goes for the rotation help needed, the others should all stay IMO.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS