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Thread: Haren Vs Santana

  1. #16
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Haren Vs Santana

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I agree, but maybe it's enough for the Athletics to accept. Juan Francisco may become a star, but with his pathetic plate discipline, I think he's unlikely to make an impact at the big league level. Ty Pelland has good stuff, but his control isn't good enough for him to be consistently good, in my opinion. I think Sam Lecure is a back of the rotation starter at best. Drew Anderson may become a Major League utility player, but he'll probably end up being a AAAA player. Travis Wood, who has had problems with injuries, is the only player I might regret giving up, but if Haren provides the Reds with 50 starts over two years at an ERA of less than 4.00, I think it would be worth it.
    Concerning Harden, I'm not sure how many innings 50 starts would translate into but let's assume he gave the Reds 300 IP over two seasons at an ERA of 4.00 (the math is easiest to use round numbers). That translates into 133 runs allowed. A replacement level pitcher (think someone you'd see on the Louisville shuttle who could post an ERA= 5.60) would be expected to give up 187 runs. So in this scenario, Harden would be worth about 2.5 wins over replacement per season.

    Here's the important question-while another 2.5 wins next season would be an obvious tangible improvement, does it effect the Reds playoff chances significantly enough to be worth a package of Juan Francisco, Travis Wood, Ty Pelland, Sam Lecure, and Drew Anderson? I think collectively Votto, Cueto, & Maloney probably are worth at least 2.5 wins next season and certainly Votto and Cueto project to be worth more than 5 wins while they are under the Reds control. Bruce and Phillips would be the names which we do not speak in this scenario. Obviously Harden could give the Reds 400 IP at an ERA of 3.20. But he could also given them less than 100....

    If the Reds do talk to Beane about one of his starters, it should be Haren/Blanton. When considering park and league effects etc, Haren would be expected to get something like a .5 run bump in his ERA if he were to switch leagues and pitch for the Reds. His career ERA is 3.82 so assuming an ERA of 3.30 in '08 over 200 IP, Haren would be a 5 win (51 runs) over replacement pitcher for the Reds in this hypothetical and the Reds would control him at significantly below market value for several years. I doubt Beane will trade Haren but if he does, it'll be for a ton. If the Reds target him, I'd have to believe that any conversation would start with Bruce+. Blanton should be somewhat cheaper but who knows in this pitching crazy environment.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #17
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Haren Vs Santana

    How much would it take to get Blanton? I like him as an inning eater, and down the road, he might be an easy sign to keep in town, considering he is from the area.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  4. #18
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Haren Vs Santana

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    How much would it take to get Blanton? I like him as an inning eater, and down the road, he might be an easy sign to keep in town, considering he is from the area.
    If 4+ hours away is "from the area."
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton


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