I agree...it shouldn't, but it will. The only way it won't is if Hamilton is moved in the offseason.
Jay Bruce NEEDS to spend some more time in Triple-A though.
He's played a total of 66 games in AA and AAA with a 23/68 BB/K rate in 253 at-bats. For his minor-league career, it's 113/294 in 1,157 at-bats.
The kid is talented, I won't debate that. But I would be cautious about giving him a starting job right away and anointing him as a sure thing based on some of those numbers.
corkedbat: very thoughtful post. I agree with just about all of it. I think we can use your list as a guide to some of the best pitching that could possibly be available.
FWIW, I really expect fireworks from the Reds this off-season. I think the days of trades for left over guys is over. I saw Castellini on one of the interviews during the latter part of the season and he seemed upset and really unhappy with the state of things.
Not saying the deals will be one-sided for the Reds. My guess is that a couple of very good young players/prospects will go. But I'd be surprised if there isn't another major move or two.
"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."
Let's say they move Hamilton for pitching or they decide that they are not going to re-sign Dunn after 08 and they get a good deal for AD.
That leaves you with Dunn/Hamilton, Bruce and Griffey and it's very likely Junior won't be back in 09. If you could add CF like Coco Crisp (just using his name as an example) without including one of our top prospects, I think you should do it. (I also think you should move Junior for something instead of waiting until decision time on his huge option after next year too).
Yes, Hamilton and Bruce can give you an adequate performance in CF, but both could also give you a very strong defender in either corner too. An OF of Bruce-Crisp-Hamilton (or Hamilton-Crisp-Bruce) would give you a defensive OF as strong as any in baseball if you deicde to move Dunn and not too shabby on offense either. If Hamilton is dealt and Dunn stays in left it lends even more value to having a ballhawk like Crisp in Center. It also makes any pitching you add even stronger by upgrading the defense.
I believe that the main value of a good GM is looking at a roster dynamically, not just how the roster looks now or even how it might look if I trade this player for that player, but how it might look three or four moves down the line.
Maybe it's a reliever and a couple of propsects for Coco Crisp, maybe its Griffey for a young CF with leadoff portential or maybe even Junior for a young SS and then Gonzalez (+) for a young CF.
My point is, that WK might be able to add a league-average #4 pitcher for Freel, Hatteburg and Coffee and be done with it (and I think you could make a convincing arguemnt for doing just that).
I think you can make just as convincing an argument for making a series of 3 to 5 deals to strengthen this team even further.
A CF might not be a huge need now, but with the right series of moves, a top defensive CF might fit in quite nicely.
It may not happen, but discussing all the options is what the Hot Stove League is all about isn't it?
Last edited by corkedbat; 12-01-2007 at 07:00 PM.
This is particularly true if they plan to sign Dunn long-term as the left fielder. With Dunn in left, the team could decide that they need a centerfielder who covers lots of ground. If the Reds replace Dunn with a better fielder, the need in center may be reduced.
Guys like Hamilton and, I have read, Bruce are viewed as excellent right fielders who can slide over and play center adequately. I think the Reds may want more defensively in center. Drew Stubbs could eventually move in there, if his bat is adequate.
If Hammy goes for pitching, the Reds don't have to find a centerfielder immediately. They could go with a Hopper/Dickerson or Hopper/Freel combo out there for a year. Hopper as a table setter is ok with me for awhile -- if the team dramatically improves pitching by trading a current outfielder.
Last edited by Kc61; 12-02-2007 at 07:40 AM.
I also believe that Krivsky, at this point, won't be rushed in to making a trade unless it benefits us. Which is why we didn't see Dunn moved last year. In my opinion, I think he knows he has a number of plums and expects top dollar if we trade any of them.
I don't believe there will be any harm in Bruce starting out in Louisville. It will not stunt his development and if it ultimately allows for a better trade since we won't have to rush in to something, then I think there's no harm in it.
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For some reason, I found C. Trent's latest update to be hilarious ...
NASHVILLE -- Yep, I'm in Nashville and about to file my story and then go pick up Lancaster at the airport.
I know you guys are excited and expecting a lot from the Winter Meetings, but I hate to break it to you, it's the most boring event around. More important than my computer for this trip is a good, comfortable pair of shoes. Seriously. We stand around a lot and talk to other writers. Then once a day, we go upstairs to Krivsky's room and he tells us nothing for a half-hour.
Hopefully there will be something to announce, but we'll see. I expect the Reds to add a starter before Christmas, but not so sure if it'll be (announced) this week.
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Trent's talking to all these other reporters to see if there's a job out there for him when the Post ceases publication within the next few weeks.
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