I have voted Dorn the last couple of polls, as I think he had a solid season last year. There is a considerable amount of doubt, however, as to whether he can be a starting outfielder when he reaches the major leagues.
Chris Dickerson
Danny Dorn
Carlos Fisher
Juan Francisco
Carlos Guevara
Sam Lecure
Kyle Lotzkar
Tyler Pelland
Adam Rosales
Neftali Soto
Daryl Thompson
Justin Turner
Chris Valaika
Pedro Viola
Brandon Waring
Sean Watson
Other (please specify)
I have voted Dorn the last couple of polls, as I think he had a solid season last year. There is a considerable amount of doubt, however, as to whether he can be a starting outfielder when he reaches the major leagues.
I voted Rosales. Guy has played everywhere in the infield and has hit well except in 2006, when he was hurt all year.
"In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra
I voted again for Waring. In my personal top 10, I had him at 8. I love the pop in his bat. I think of him as the next Ryan Braun.
-LTlabnerIf you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
What gives you the impression that he can be the next Ryan Braun?Originally Posted by GoReds33
I guess I'm being kind of optimistic. I just think that he sounds like a Ryan Braun type player. From what I heard he doesn't play good defense. I believe I have heard his hands refered to as rocks. That sounds to me like Braun. His numbers are kind of similar to Braun's. He has terrific power, and a good average.
Braun: Waring:
games: 113 69
averages .324 .313
homeruns 34 20
rbi 97 63
ops 1.004 .987
Those look pretty similar to me.
-LTlabnerIf you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
I love Lotzkar's stuff. But I have doubts about him, for one he's still extremely young. The other doubt I have is that I remember reading a scouting report on Lotzkar that stated he was a big injury risk because of his mechanics. He has a chicken wing motion, similar to B.J. Ryan's, that could make him very prone to elbow problems.
If he turns into BJ Ryan (a top closer) then that is actually a very good thing.
Lotzkar is 5 years younger than BJ Ryan when they made their Pro Debuts.
In fact his 1st year is better than Bailey's first year, and he is a year younger
Of course the big difference in those numbers is one was done in rookie ball and one was done in the major leagues. Braun was a top 10 pick in all of baseball while Waring dropped to the 7th round despite finishing second in the country in HR in college. I would love to see Waring turn into a Braun type of hitter, I just don't see it happening.
I just think that both Francisco and Lotzkar are higher ceiling types than is Dorn. So, in some order, Lotzkar/Francisco should be 11-12. At that point, I see nobody who should stand in the way of Dorn, who I would have at 13. Not bad for a late round draft choice, very respectable.
What we see often is that as guys move up, reality sets in. We are less and less able to wishcast their flaws away. We focus on what they can't do and minimize what they can. The exact opposite happens with that guy who hasn't done much of anything yet. He's still a blank slate for our imaginations.
Don't get me wrong; I don't think Dorn is a future all-star. I do think that guys who move 3 levels in a year and hit .300/.400/.500 along the way tend to become major leaguers. It's one thing to take a top 20 pick who performed well in his first season in rookie ball and put him in the top 10 prospects. It's another to take the 53rd overall pick who has 29 decent professional innings and put him ahead of a guy who excelled in AA at an appropriate age.
I'm excited about Lotzkar. But at what point do you start giving credit for actual performance? At what point do you stop brushing away their problems as fixable. If Dorn goes .300/.400/.500 split between AA and AAA next year, and Lotzkar goes 140 IP with a 3.50 ERA, 9 H/9, 3 BB/9, and 9 K/9 in Dayton, where will they stand? I get the feeling that because he wasn't a high draft pick, Dorn will be considered a virtual non-prospect until he's a major leaguers.
And if Dorn is going to be railed for his problems with lefties, than Fransisco shouldn't even be on the radar until he learns the strikezone. That's one skill that is quite projectable and a big strike against him. He's got a ton of power, but how is that going to translate up the the line when his contact issues are exploited even more?
Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-02-2007 at 11:09 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I voted Lotzkar; will vote Dorn next. It's just a close call on potential upside, value of a starter vs. corner outfielder (plus problem of whether Dorn will ever actually get a chance in Cinti with the abundance of outfielders.)
Nice post. It's nice to here a pessimistic view of our prospects to get a better feel of what kind of player they are, rather than the typical build-up...
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