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Thread: BA Rule V Preview

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    BA Rule V Preview

    I don't have an account so I suppose this is ok to post. I colored in all Red's related bits and bolded some of the guys I like.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...ws/265252.html

    Early Rule 5 Preview

    By Chris Kline
    November 28, 2007

    E-mail Print

    Buckle your seatbelts. This year's Rule 5 draft will likely be more exciting than 2006, thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

    Included in the new CBA, which went into effect last October, was an alteration to the Rule 5, giving teams an extra year of protection to further aid the development process. Instead of clubs having three years (for players signed at age 19 or older) or four years (for players 18 and younger) to wait before adding players to the major league 40-man roster, they now have four and five years.

    High school players drafted in 2003 and college players drafted in 2004 become eligible for the Rule 5 for the first time this year. International signees and all others signed before age 19 in the year 2003 also require protection.

    While there likely won't be the Josh Hamilton bomb the Reds dropped on the Rule 5 world last season, more clubs will be active among a much deeper pool of players available—more than 800 names are up for grabs in the major league phase of the draft.

    "Even with the new CBA last year there were a few nifty picks," said one front-office executive. "The Royals grabbing Joakim Soria, Reds nabbing Hamilton and Jared Burton . . . The Nationals taking Jesus Flores was creative. San Diego taking Kevin Cameron from the Twins and seeing him pitch late in the game in certain situations at Petco Park . . . The percentage of players sticking in the majors is not very good and the percentage shrinks on teams that are actually in contention. The draft still serves as a good barometer to make clubs correctly assess what they have in their own system and perhaps find another piece.

    "Looking back on 2006, teams felt a little more secure in protecting their own because they had another full year to assess what they had in their own system."

    Machinations Of The Draft

    The Rule 5 draft is split into two segments: In the major league phase, clubs draft eligible players off Triple-A reserve lists. Players selected in the major league phase of the draft cost $50,000 each and must remain on the selecting team's big league roster for all of the 2008 season or be offered back to the player's original team for $25,000.

    The minor league phase is split into two sections—the Triple-A phase and the Double-A phase. In the Triple-A phase, clubs draft players off Double-A reserve lists for $12,000 apiece; in the Double-A phase, clubs draft players off Class A reserve lists for $4,000 each. In neither case do players drafted have to be returned to their original team.

    Roughly 400 players are eligible to be drafted in the minor league phase, and clubs had targeted several players. And just like the major league portion, expect teams to focus on trying to beef up their systems on the mound and behind the plate.

    "It's a cheap and easy way to improve the depth of your farm system," a scout from an American League club said. "It's rare to get a position player (in the minor league phase) who becomes an impact player, but you'll see clubs trying to buy arms in bulk and hoping to find more depth at catcher."

    While it is rare to strike gold in the minor league phase, the most recent success story is Giants infielder Eugenio Velez, who was selected from the Blue Jays in 2005 and has a chance to stick with the big league club in 2008.

    Position players on the minor league side that were garnering interest early this season were catchers Korey Feiner (Twins), Morgan Clendenin (Orioles), Mario Mercedes (Cubs), and utilityman Jesus Soto (Royals).

    But let's focus on the major league phase for now. Here are some players to keep an eye on, in order of their Rule 5 helium:

    Randor Bierd, rhp, Tigers

    Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, Bierd was mediocre for his first two seasons in the States and then needed Tommy John surgery midway through 2005. After pitching at short-season Oneonta in 2006, Bierd took a major step this past season, jumping to Double-A Erie where he finished 3-2, 3.35 with 52 strikeouts in 45 innings. While Bierd has a swing-and-miss 90-93 mph sinking fastball, his solid-average slider also gets a lot of ground balls. And he has the makings of a third pitch with an average changeup.

    Brian Barton, of, Indians

    Ever the enigma, Barton went undrafted in 2004 after clubs were scared off by his aerospace engineering major at Miami. The Indians signed him for $100,000 and an additional $100,000 in college funds after a brief showing in the Cape Cod League and Barton has not looked back. A five-tool player who can play all three outfield spots, Barton has been hampered by a lingering knee injury since his breakout year in 2006 when he hit .322 with 19 homers and swiped 41 bags in 49 attempts. Even with the knee problem, Barton still turned in a .305/.402/.420 season in 2007, finishing the year in Triple-A. Quiet and leading through example through his 2006 season, some scouts expressed concerns about Barton's demeanor. "I loved him that first year in Double-A," one scout from a National League club said. "But this past year, it was almost like he'd earned this elite status and you saw him have this lackadaisical approach to the game that wasn't there before. Where he was playing with chips on both shoulders with something to prove initially, that part of his game was replaced by some sort of false bravado. He's really tough to get a handle on, but the tools are very real."

    Garrett Guzman, of, Twins

    Guzman missed the entire 2005 season after breaking his neck in a car accident just days before leaving for spring training that year. Now 25, the undersized lefthanded hitter profiles as arguably the best fourth outfielder candidate on the Rule 5 eligible list, drawing comparisons to Orlando Palmeiro. While Palmeiro was a bit better runner and defender, Guzman offers more power and offensive upside. Guzman, who batted .312/.359/.453 at Double-A New Britain in 2007, has solid gap power and the ability to play anywhere in the outfield, though he profiles best in left. "He probably doesn't run as well (as Palmeiro) but they're very similar players who can do a lot of things for you," said one National League scout.

    Carlos Guevara, rhp, Reds

    A 2003 seventh-round pick out of St. Mary's (Texas) University, Guevara repeated at Double-A Chattanooga despite an impressive season with 89 in 77 innings in 2006. Guevara was just as good if not better in 2007, averaging 12.63 K/9, and should be an easy Rule 5 decision for a club searching for middle relief. Guevara has one plus pitch, but it's the niche of that pitch being a screwball that helps spike his value, and explain why he's available, as some scouts dismiss him as a trick-pitch artist. The rest of Guevara's stuff is fringe-average, but he could be a solid addition for clubs in need of bullpen arms.

    Samuel Deduno, rhp, Rockies

    The Rockies signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, and he was the Rookie-level Pioneer League pitcher of the year two years later in his U.S. debut. Effectively wild, Deduno doesn't have overpowering stuff, but misses a lot of bats with average command of his 91-92 mph fastball and a 70 curveball, all on the 20-80 scouting scale. After leading the minors with 34 wild pitches in 2006, Deduno lowered that number to 13 this year. He can lose his release point very easily at times. Deduno was shut down in winter ball with elbow soreness, but several clubs were still expressing interest in the 24-year-old. He went 6-9, 5.53 with 8.6 K/9 in 2007.

    The following players were receiving strong consideration for the Rule 5 draft in December:

    Kyle Aselton, lhp, Twins
    Overlooked in Twins system; arm strength with low 90s heat
    Jesus Castillo, rhp, Dodgers
    Fastball command to both sides; up to 94 mph in winter ball
    Jamie D'Antona, 3b/c, Diamondbacks
    Second straight year left unprotected, can play 1b, 3b or c
    Jose de la Cruz, rhp, Mariners
    Six-foot-6 righthander with power sinker and added a split
    Diory Hernandez, ss, Braves
    Plus runner with easy actions; uses the whole field
    Fernando Hernandez, rhp, White Sox
    Matt Guerrier-type righthander with plus moxie
    Dusty Hughes, rhp, Royals
    Strong Arizona Fall League effort boosts short guy's stock
    Steven Jackson, rhp, Yankees
    Strong, physical presence and has yet to reach his ceiling
    Preston Larrison, rhp, Tigers
    Very heavy lower half, but can be effective out of the pen
    Shane Lindsay, rhp, Rockies
    Health is a major issue, but showed power stuff in Hawaii
    Yohan Pino, rhp, Twins
    Great feel to pitch with a four fringe-average pitches
    Tony Richie, c, Cubs
    Solid catch-and-throw guy who hits a little bit
    Kyle Schmidt, rhp, Orioles
    Medical baggage, but bounced back with 145 whiffs in 131 IP
    Leyson Septimo, lhp, Diamondbacks
    Converted outfielder reportedly hit triple-digits this fall
    Brett Smith, rhp, Yankees
    Solid-average stuff, doesn't pitch with his fastball enough
    Von Stertzbach, rhp, Angels
    Profiles as a solid bullpen guy with above-average slider
    Chris Stewart, c, Rangers
    Solid defender with the big leagues already on his resume
    Luis Valbuena, 2b, Mariners
    Outstanding defender with interesting lefty bat
    Marwin Vega, rhp, Mariners
    Three average pitches with a lively 91-93 mph fastball
    Matt Whitney, 1b, Indians
    Blasting 32 homers might be enough to get Whitney noticed
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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  3. #2
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    good work thanks

    Bierd sounds like a great fit for us...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    any pitcher close to triple digits deserves a look, just saying

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    good work thanks

    Bierd sounds like a great fit for us...
    No problem. Yes I agree he's the one I like most, he and Diory the SS.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    any pitcher close to triple digits deserves a look, just saying
    Yeah that's what I thought, especially since he's a LH to boot.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    I'd say 'maybe' to these guys:

    Kyle Aselton
    Brian Barton
    Randor Bierd
    Samuel Deduno
    Jesus De la Cruz
    Diory Hernandez
    Fernando Hernandez
    Dusty Hughes
    Yohan Pino
    Kyle Schmidt
    Leyson Septimo
    Chris Stewart

    . . . but the guy I really like is Jamie D'Antona. I think it'd be nice if the Reds grabbed D'Antona and traded Valentin.

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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    Anyway, A reliable source has informed MLBTR that the Rays are eyeing 25 year-old outfielder Brian Barton from the Indians for the first pick. Barton was once fairly highly regarded, but the Tribe chose not to protect him this year.

    Of course with the Rule 5 the selection has to stay on the Major League roster all year. Barton may be polished enough to do so without causing harm, as he's posted solid numbers in Double A. Barton is a center fielder by trade. Acquiring him makes sense for Tampa Bay given their subtraction of Delmon Young and Jason Pridie.

    Barton may be near MLB-ready but some have questioned his ceiling. Said Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein: "He's always been old for his level and many scouts see him as a mistake hitter and minor league performer as opposed to a player with long-term major league value."

    Brian Barton would seem to be the first choice of the Rays, if this "reliable source" is correct. We will find out soon enough.

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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    When is the Rule V draft?

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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    When is the Rule V draft?
    December 10,2007

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    Member Jay Bruce's Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    I would really like to see Randor Bierd fall to us. His stats last year were very impressive:

    Code:
    Year Team       Lg  Age Org Level  W L ERA  G GS CG SH GF SV IP  H   R ER HR BB SO WP BK  H9   HR9   BB9 K9    WHIP GB% 
    2007 West Mich Midw 23  Det   A    1 1 2.05 15 0 0  0  10  0 22.0 17  8 5  1  6  29 0  0  6.95 0.41 2.45 11.86 1.05 -- 
             Erie  East 23  Det  AA    3 2 3.35 27 3 0  0  8   1 45.2 31 18 17 1  10 52 5  0  6.11 0.20 1.97 10.25 0.90 --
    Basically, he struck people out, kept people off base, and kept the ball in the park. He seems like a perfect fit for the Reds.

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Bruce View Post
    I would really like to see Randor Bierd fall to us. His stats last year were very impressive:

    Code:
    Year Team       Lg  Age Org Level  W L ERA  G GS CG SH GF SV IP  H   R ER HR BB SO WP BK  H9   HR9   BB9 K9    WHIP GB% 
    2007 West Mich Midw 23  Det   A    1 1 2.05 15 0 0  0  10  0 22.0 17  8 5  1  6  29 0  0  6.95 0.41 2.45 11.86 1.05 -- 
             Erie  East 23  Det  AA    3 2 3.35 27 3 0  0  8   1 45.2 31 18 17 1  10 52 5  0  6.11 0.20 1.97 10.25 0.90 --
    Basically, he struck people out, kept people off base, and kept the ball in the park. He seems like a perfect fit for the Reds.
    wow... what does he not do well? Was he old for his level last year? The Tigers look foolish for letting this guy go...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Member Jay Bruce's Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    wow... what does he not do well? Was he old for his level last year? The Tigers look foolish for letting this guy go...
    He was 23 last year, and had success at AA, so he wasn't too old. The Tigers may view him as an injury risk, seeing as he had tommy john surgery in 2005. That said, his peripherals are too impressive too ignore.

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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    On Bierd, somebody in the Tigers organization doesn't think his 2007 is for real. He made a huge improvement from a 6.57 ERA in 2006 in the New York Penn League. I'd bet the organization is thinking nobody will pick him up, that they can expose him without danger. He's not had much sustained success and is probably not a good bet to stick on a 25 man roster.

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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    As far as I understand it, there is not very much downside to taking someone in the Rule V Draft. I he isn't good enough to stick on the 25 man roster you have to send him back, but that means he wasn't any good so we wouldn't want him anyways...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: BA Rule V Preview

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    December 10,2007
    No. Its Thursday. That is Dec 6th.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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