Originally Posted by
HokieRed
These may not seem important, but I think they are pretty real considerations about "downside" in taking a rule 5 guy. Assuming in the Reds' case we're talking about a reliever, it means in Spring training you've got to give the guy enough innings to determine if he can stick on the 25 man roster. Those come away from other guys you are trying to evaluate and from guys trying to prepare for the season. Consider that on the Reds we are already going to be trying, presumably, to evaluate at least Coffey, Majewski, Bray, Coutlangus, Salmon, McBeth, Pelland, Roenicke, maybe Viola, Stanton, Gardner, maybe EZ, Shearn, and possibly 3 or 4 non-roster invitees plus the starters with a chance to make the roster--Cueto, Maloney. This is just a list of the guys you're trying out. Now you've got to add to that the ones you're trying to get ready. Also there are only so many meaningful innings in spring training ball--innings in which your Rule 5 guy faces a solid 3-6 major league hitters in a row. It doesn't tell you anything if he goes out and blows away some other team's Double A hopefuls. Remember, then, those meaningful innings are precious to your guys who are trying to make their case. What all this means is that it doesn't make a lot of sense to take a rule 5 reliever unless you are either 1. A club on which it doesn't matter much who the 12th pitcher is (hopefully this no longer describes the Reds) or 2. You are pretty sure going in that the guy is better than a lot of what you have and will stick--e.g. Burton last year.