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Thread: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

  1. #31
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    Isn't a high babip a function of bad luck? If Belisle's high ERA was in part based on a high babip then i expect (all things being equal) his ERA this year to drop? Straight fastball or not his babip should average around.300, iirc.

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Isn't a high babip a function of bad luck? If Belisle's high ERA was in part based on a high babip then i expect (all things being equal) his ERA this year to drop? Straight fastball or not his babip should average around.300, iirc.
    Generally, although given the Reds defense, .310 wouldn't be considered 'bad luck'.

  4. #33
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Isn't a high babip a function of bad luck? If Belisle's high ERA was in part based on a high babip then i expect (all things being equal) his ERA this year to drop? Straight fastball or not his babip should average around.300, iirc.
    If every pitcher had the same BABIP then almost every pitcher would be above average. High BABIP does not correlate with automatic bad luck. It should be looked at as a tool if a player has one very odd year and the number is not incredibly high. Some use it as the only tool in suggesting why a pitcher completely bombed. That's using it WAY to broadly. The truly bad pitchers will have BABIP for obvious reasons.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  5. #34
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    If every pitcher had the same BABIP then almost every pitcher would be above average. High BABIP does not correlate with automatic bad luck. It should be looked at as a tool if a player has one very odd year and the number is not incredibly high. Some use it as the only tool in suggesting why a pitcher completely bombed. That's using it WAY to broadly. The truly bad pitchers will have BABIP for obvious reasons.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #35
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Bill James is pretty much is predicting Jay Bruce will be Ted Williams in 1939 minus about .020 in BA.

    That's some serious expectation.
    Good point. The Reds had better trade Bruce ASAP.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  7. #36
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    So when babip high enough that it is signifigant? can i get somekind of figure to work with? can ya tellme when (at what figure) does it count?

  8. #37
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    Good point. The Reds had better trade Bruce ASAP.
    Well..Ted Williams never won a ring
    Go Gators!

  9. #38
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    So when babip high enough that it is signifigant? can i get somekind of figure to work with? can ya tellme when (at what figure) does it count?
    It depends on the history of the player. The truly bad or "hittable" pitchers will have higher BABIP percentages for obvious reasons. Even the creator of BABIP advises using the metric as one of many tools in evaluating a pitchers season.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.


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