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Thread: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

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    John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/

    Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2008

    All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

    1. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A (I'm not worried about the strikeouts given his age and performance)
    2. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
    3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
    4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
    5. Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
    6. Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B (I have always liked him, has component marks of a power pitcher not a finesse guy even though he doesn't throw hard)
    7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
    8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
    9. Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
    10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B- (a long way off but a good intuitive feeling)
    11. Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B- (major sleeper)
    12. Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
    13. Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
    14. Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+ (sleeper!)
    15. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+ (health??)
    16. Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+
    17. Scott Carroll, RHP, Grade C+
    18. Chris Valaika, INF, Grade C+
    19. Adam Rosales, 1B, Grade C+
    20. Sean Watson, RHP, Grade C+
    21. Brandon Waring, 3B, Grade C+ (the strikeouts scare me)

    There are six other guys I rate as Grade C+, and 11 other guys I rate at Grade C. A very rich farm system with a lot of depth.



    Bailey a B+??? That's crazy

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

    I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

    I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.
    Just a question, but why is it so crazy to have Cueto and Votto ahead of Bailey?

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Lockdwn11 View Post
    Just a question, but why is it so crazy to have Cueto and Votto ahead of Bailey?
    It's not. Bailey is far from a sure thing.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

    I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.

    Hey, I was wondering if you still feel that it's a joke to rate Cueto ahead of Bailey.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Lockdwn11 View Post
    Hey, I was wondering if you still feel that it's a joke to rate Cueto ahead of Bailey.
    Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.
    Doug I value your opinion so I would like to know why you feel this way because at this point I see Cueto improving and Bailey well not so much I have seen them both pitch and I have to tell you that Cueto's stuff look better to me then Baileys. I welcome your thoughts.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Lockdwn11 View Post
    Doug I value your opinion so I would like to know why you feel this way because at this point I see Cueto improving and Bailey well not so much I have seen them both pitch and I have to tell you that Cueto's stuff look better to me then Baileys. I welcome your thoughts.
    Bailey has a better body and cleaner mechanics.

    Bailey has a better fastball both because of speed and because of the plane it comes in on. Given that Baileys taller, his release point is going to be closer to the plate, so even if they are both throwing a 92 MPH fastball (just an example), Bailey's is going to get to the plate faster and its also going to be moving faster when it does reach the plate.

    Bailey's curveball is a better offspeed pitch than Cueto's changeup or slider. All of the pitches are very good pitches though.

    Bailey's change up which has been a lacking pitch in the past flashed some true promise this spring. With some repititions I think it could become an above average pitch.

    Now Cueto has that special thing in his control that Bailey doesn't always have. That is what makes him the better pitcher of the two now and likely for the next two years. However I think Bailey will eventually catch up and pass Cueto up.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.
    Not me.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    No mention of Daryl Thompson???

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Well Lotzkar is a guy who was just picked and hasn't pitched much. He easily warrants the B- grade. I think the intuitive feeling means he thinks Lotzkar might become a major top tier prospect. Lotzkar is very young (17 last year) but also has several years before reaching the majors and is extremely promising.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    No Juan Francisco either, he did say there were six other c-plus prospects in his rankings though. The Reds depth is crazy. One bad season for anyone in the 7-21 range next year and they won't come close to making this list next year. Would a guy like Justin Reed be in the top 20-30 range in every other system in baseball? How about a second round pick like Zach Cozart (who was ranked 59th in BA's Top 200 before the draft) would he be in every other teams top 30?

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Daryl Thompson is probably one of the six other C+ guys, along with Justin Reed, Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Justin Turner, and Sam Lecure.

    C guys? Some combination of Bartles, Valiquette, Bowman, both Joneses, Long, Cozart, R. Gonzalez, J. Smith, Webb, T. Young, Chiu, Szymanski, Tatum, Perez, Ondrusek, Jukich, R. Ramirez, Griffin, Lutz, Smit, Anderson, Janish, Hanigan, Fisher, Avery, or Cumberland.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see John list Carlos Guevara at some point, too.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    I don't think Franzisco should be in the top 20. His BB/K rate is just too bad, and usually the hacker type doesn't amount to anything. His OBP was .301. 161 Ks and 23 BB in 534 AB.
    He struck out 30% of the time. His BB/K rate would have put him 3rd to last in all of MLB for qualified hitters.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Some further comments by John Sickels:

    I expect the Bailey rating of "only" a B+ will be controversial. However, this will still get him into the top 20 and possibly the top 10 pitching prospects given the thinning out of talent this year. I like him, but I am worried about his command and I guess I don't like him as much as some people do.

    Drew Stubbs Book Excerpt
    By John Sickels
    Posted on Fri Dec 07, 2007 at 01:36:49 PM CDT

    Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds
    Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-5 WT: 190 DOB: October 4, 1984

    (stats are in the book)
    A star at the University of Texas, Stubbs was drafted in the first round in '06, seventh overall. He has excellent tools: speed, power, overall athleticism. Right now his best skills are defensive: he is a tremendous defensive outfielder. But his bat is surprisingly unrefined for a college player. He works the count, but his swing gets long, and he strikes out so much that some scouts doubt he'll be an adequate hitter at higher levels. He posted a +13 percent OPS in the Midwest League, and his SEC of +37 percent shows a potentially broad base of skills. Stubbs has the physical ability to be a Seven Skill player, but he needs to show he can make contact against better pitching, and he needs to improve his basestealing efficiency. He could be really good, he could be merely mediocre, or he could flame out when he reaches Double-A, a definite high-risk/high-reward prospect. Grade B-.


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