John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

[mlbfan30]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

1. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A (I'm not worried about the strikeouts given his age and performance)
2. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
5. Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
6. Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B (I have always liked him, has component marks of a power pitcher not a finesse guy even though he doesn't throw hard)
7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
9. Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B- (a long way off but a good intuitive feeling)
11. Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B- (major sleeper)
12. Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
13. Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
14. Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+ (sleeper!)
15. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+ (health??)
16. Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+
17. Scott Carroll, RHP, Grade C+
18. Chris Valaika, INF, Grade C+
19. Adam Rosales, 1B, Grade C+
20. Sean Watson, RHP, Grade C+
21. Brandon Waring, 3B, Grade C+ (the strikeouts scare me)

There are six other guys I rate as Grade C+, and 11 other guys I rate at Grade C. A very rich farm system with a lot of depth.



Bailey a B+??? That's crazy

[AdamDunn]

It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.

[cjtenn28]

No mention of Daryl Thompson???

[mlbfan30]

Well Lotzkar is a guy who was just picked and hasn't pitched much. He easily warrants the B- grade. I think the intuitive feeling means he thinks Lotzkar might become a major top tier prospect. Lotzkar is very young (17 last year) but also has several years before reaching the majors and is extremely promising.

[New Fever]

No Juan Francisco either, he did say there were six other c-plus prospects in his rankings though. The Reds depth is crazy. One bad season for anyone in the 7-21 range next year and they won't come close to making this list next year. Would a guy like Justin Reed be in the top 20-30 range in every other system in baseball? How about a second round pick like Zach Cozart (who was ranked 59th in BA's Top 200 before the draft) would he be in every other teams top 30?

[Doc. Scott]

Daryl Thompson is probably one of the six other C+ guys, along with Justin Reed, Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Justin Turner, and Sam Lecure.

C guys? Some combination of Bartles, Valiquette, Bowman, both Joneses, Long, Cozart, R. Gonzalez, J. Smith, Webb, T. Young, Chiu, Szymanski, Tatum, Perez, Ondrusek, Jukich, R. Ramirez, Griffin, Lutz, Smit, Anderson, Janish, Hanigan, Fisher, Avery, or Cumberland.

I wouldn't be surprised to see John list Carlos Guevara at some point, too.

[mlbfan30]

I don't think Franzisco should be in the top 20. His BB/K rate is just too bad, and usually the hacker type doesn't amount to anything. His OBP was .301. 161 Ks and 23 BB in 534 AB.
He struck out 30% of the time. His BB/K rate would have put him 3rd to last in all of MLB for qualified hitters.

[Lockdwn11]

It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.

Just a question, but why is it so crazy to have Cueto and Votto ahead of Bailey?

[cincinnati chili]

Just a question, but why is it so crazy to have Cueto and Votto ahead of Bailey?

It's not. Bailey is far from a sure thing.

[AmarilloRed]

Some further comments by John Sickels:

I expect the Bailey rating of "only" a B+ will be controversial. However, this will still get him into the top 20 and possibly the top 10 pitching prospects given the thinning out of talent this year. I like him, but I am worried about his command and I guess I don't like him as much as some people do.

Drew Stubbs Book Excerpt
By John Sickels
Posted on Fri Dec 07, 2007 at 01:36:49 PM CDT

Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-5 WT: 190 DOB: October 4, 1984

(stats are in the book)
A star at the University of Texas, Stubbs was drafted in the first round in '06, seventh overall. He has excellent tools: speed, power, overall athleticism. Right now his best skills are defensive: he is a tremendous defensive outfielder. But his bat is surprisingly unrefined for a college player. He works the count, but his swing gets long, and he strikes out so much that some scouts doubt he'll be an adequate hitter at higher levels. He posted a +13 percent OPS in the Midwest League, and his SEC of +37 percent shows a potentially broad base of skills. Stubbs has the physical ability to be a Seven Skill player, but he needs to show he can make contact against better pitching, and he needs to improve his basestealing efficiency. He could be really good, he could be merely mediocre, or he could flame out when he reaches Double-A, a definite high-risk/high-reward prospect. Grade B-.

[GoReds33]

I feel like an idiot. I am voting for Waring on every prospect vote we have. This guy has him 20th??? Maybe he knows something I don't.

[HokieRed]

One thing I like about Sickels' comment is his emphasis on the system's depth. Maybe it will help lay to rest the oft heard complaint that the system lacks depth.

[dougdirt]

I feel like an idiot. I am voting for Waring on every prospect vote we have. This guy has him 20th??? Maybe he knows something I don't.

That he has some big holes in his swing? The numbers look really good, but even Waring has mentioned that he just sits back and swings for the fences sometimes.

[redsmetz]

One thing I like about Sickels' comment is his emphasis on the system's depth. Maybe it will help lay to rest the oft heard complaint that the system lacks depth.

This comment jumped out at me while perusing his article

Good Lord.

This system is loaded. You have the top quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, but even beyond them there is a good combination of performance guys and projection guys. My initial run through came up with 49 names worth writing about. I have narrowed that down to 39, which is the most I can put into the book. Even that, some of the guys I cut I wish I could put in.

Take heart, Reds fans. You have a lot to look forward to.

[mbgrayson]

Why is Jared Burton still on this type of list? He clearly lost his rookie status because he was on the roster more than 45 days prior to September. (Bailey I guess pitched few enough innings to retain his status, and with his injury, was off the 25 man roster.)

I LIKE Jared, but he no longer a prospect. Here is the MLB rule on rookie status:

Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).