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Thread: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

  1. #16
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    Why is Jared Burton still on this type of list? He clearly lost his rookie status because he was on the roster more than 45 days prior to September. (Bailey I guess pitched few enough innings to retain his status, and with his injury, was off the 25 man roster.)

    I LIKE Jared, but he no longer a prospect. Here is the MLB rule on rookie status:
    I think its just a mistake where the service time rule didn't get noticed since Burton didn't pitch the 50 innings.
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  3. #17
    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    If John paid attention to every guy's service time he'd never get his book done.
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Sickels' list is very interesting. Not so much for the actual ranking, but moreso for the implications.

    It's a great sign that Sickels gave the Reds 11 "A" or "B" prospects. By comparison, Sickels gave the Reds these many A or B prospects in recent years:

    2000: 7
    2001: 12
    2002: 5
    2005: 5

    Although the 2001 collection of prospects was impressive, it was notably different than the 2007 edition. In 2001, the Reds acquired five B prospects via the Neagle and Bichette trades. The 2008 list represents an improvement that is truly organic, one that bodes well for the minor league system and for the future of the organization.

    So it is quite impressive that Sickels recognizes the Reds system depth. It might be a top five system, in terms of depth. (Although the depth is largely evident in the lower minors, and those guys generally have question marks, long roads ahead of them, or both.)

    Moreover, with three "A" prospects, the Reds have three of the top 15 or 25 prospects. And with five B+ or higher prospects, that gives the Reds roughly five of the Top 50 or so. That's huge.

  5. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    I have the top 5 in the same order as Sickels. I also like that he doesn't have Francisco in the top 20. He could be the perfect toolsy prospect (power + arm) to kick into a deal for a pitcher this winter.
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  6. #20
    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    It's amazing what a difference a year makes...last year Sickels criticized our system for having a few top-flight guys but little depth.

    It feels darn good to have a nice farm system....I hope this continues to be the case.
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  7. #21
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    I am sure we all could haggle over Sickles views on the Reds Prospects, but there is no denying its depth and what its value will be when it comes to determining the Reds next 8 years as a Ball club.

    I like Sickles site and find it very informative and his giving a thumbs up so to speak, makes me even more secure in how I and a few members who have openly stated on the minor league board. The Reds future as a whole has to be homegrown if there ever to be a long term contender. I also would like to add no more cheap dollar drafting for slot $$$ best talent has to be the way to go.

    Throwing away $$$$ on the Castro's and Stanton's of this world has to end and I rather they flush it into promising kids even if that fails it is by far the better investment.
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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    Why is Jared Burton still on this type of list? He clearly lost his rookie status because he was on the roster more than 45 days prior to September. (Bailey I guess pitched few enough innings to retain his status, and with his injury, was off the 25 man roster.)

    I LIKE Jared, but he no longer a prospect. Here is the MLB rule on rookie status:
    Probably because the list is from a prospect viewpoint and not an official status. I still think of Burton, Votto and Bailey as "prospects plus" meaning they've seen a bit of ML action, which helps in gradingtheir talents but not enough to really make a definitive statement.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 12-15-2007 at 09:13 PM.

  9. #23
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Based on our Community Prospect Voting after 16 prospects, this is how we see it.

    Prospect 1 - Jay Bruce
    Prospect 2 - Homer Bailey
    Prospect 3 - Johnny Cueto
    Prospect 4 - Joey Votto
    Prospect 5 - Todd Frazier
    Prospect 6 - Drew Stubbs
    Prospect 7 - Matt Maloney
    Prospect 8 - Josh Roenicke
    Prospect 9 - Travis Wood
    Prospect 10 - Devin Mesoraco
    Prospect 11 - Kyle Lotzkar
    Prospect 12 - Danny Dorn
    Prospect 13 - Sean Watson
    Prospect 14 - Carlos Fisher
    Prospect 15 - Juan Francisco
    Prospect 16 - Neftali Soto


    And this is how Sickels sees it.

    1. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A
    2. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
    3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
    4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
    5. Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
    6. Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B
    7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
    8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
    9. Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
    10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-
    11. Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B-
    12. Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
    13. Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
    14. Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+
    15. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+
    16. Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+
    Apparently we liked Roenicke way better than Sickels. 8 for us, 16 for JS.
    Conversely, he likes Soto way better than we did. 16 for us, 9 for JS.
    He has Pelland at 13, and Pelland hasn't gotten a lot of love from us through 16 prospects.
    Sickels liked Mesoraco better than we did. 10 for us, 7 for JS.
    Fisher didn't crack his top 21, we had Fisher 14.
    Similar for Watson. We had Watson 13, JS had him 20.

    Draw your own conclusions from our rankings vs. Sickels.

    IMO, he got the top 6 right, and you could almost swap Cueto and Votto, but I can go with JS on that one. Bailey at 4 is on the money, IMO.

    What say you, RedsZone?

  10. #24
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    I think Sickels has Roenicke too low. We have him at eight and Baseball America has him at nine. This is a guy that throws in the mid-to-upper 90's with a nasty cutter and a slider. Between Sarasota and Chattanooga this year, he allowed only 35 hits, one homerun, and struckout 56 batters in 47 innings. With numbers like that and his proximity to the majors, he is definitely a top 10 prospect in my book.

  11. #25
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I think Sickels has Roenicke too low. We have him at eight and Baseball America has him at nine. This is a guy that throws in the mid-to-upper 90's with a nasty cutter and a slider. Between Sarasota and Chattanooga this year, he allowed only 35 hits, one homerun, and struckout 56 batters in 47 innings. With numbers like that and his proximity to the majors, he is definitely a top 10 prospect in my book.
    I'm with you here. But I think in JS's defense, he almost never grades out a reliever as part of an organization's top class of prospect. He sees Roenicke as just a useful bullpen spare part, whereas around here our GM is willing to give a starting SS and RF for a couple useful bullpen spare parts - whether they're actually useful or not.

  12. #26
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    I'm with you here. But I think in JS's defense, he almost never grades out a reliever as part of an organization's top class of prospect. He sees Roenicke as just a useful bullpen spare part, whereas around here our GM is willing to give a starting SS and RF for a couple useful bullpen spare parts - whether they're actually useful or not.
    Yet he has Pelland at 13. Which I guess is close to where I would have him.
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  13. #27
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Yet he has Pelland at 13. Which I guess is close to where I would have him.
    Yeah, as a C+ grade. That's usually as high as he goes with relievers. Heck, as good as Burton was last year Sickels still has him as a C+.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    I just saw on Sickel's site where he said he rethought things and dropped Todd Frazier from a B+ to a B. Didn't really give a reason other than he said he may have graded Frazier a notch too high.
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    If you are a professional talent evaluator shouldn't categorizing a guy as a sleeper make you less credible? To me its an admission of not being able to make a judgement call on a certain type of player, its that safe zone in the middle where its easy to hide.
    Last edited by Orenda; 12-19-2007 at 09:52 AM.

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by summerplight View Post
    If you are a professional talent evaluator shouldn't categorizing a guy as a sleeper make you less credible? To me its an admission of not being able to make a judgement call on a certain type of player, its that safe zone in the middle where its easy to hide.
    I don't know.... he lists Viola and Dorn as sleepers. Over on another site I asked people about Danny Dorn and they had no clue who he was. Then they looked at the numbers and were like whoa, where did this guy come from? He is listed as a sleeper because a lot of people have no clue who he is becuase he isn't young exactly (not that he is old, but he wasn't an 18 year old 32nd round pick who burst onto the scene) and he wasn't some high draft pick, so no one really paid attention to him. He would be a Top 10 prospect in probably 25 other systems in baseball. Viola likewise has burst onto the scene as a first year player in America as a 24 year old reliever. Prior to this year I doubt even 10% of the guys who hang out on the minor league board knew who he was.... much less people who don't follow the Reds. Sleeper is more of a term, at least to me, as someone you may not have heard of before, but you better pay attention to or you are going to miss the boat.


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