John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

[Orenda]

I don't know.... he lists Viola and Dorn as sleepers. Over on another site I asked people about Danny Dorn and they had no clue who he was. Then they looked at the numbers and were like whoa, where did this guy come from? He is listed as a sleeper because a lot of people have no clue who he is becuase he isn't young exactly (not that he is old, but he wasn't an 18 year old 32nd round pick who burst onto the scene) and he wasn't some high draft pick, so no one really paid attention to him. He would be a Top 10 prospect in probably 25 other systems in baseball. Viola likewise has burst onto the scene as a first year player in America as a 24 year old reliever. Prior to this year I doubt even 10% of the guys who hang out on the minor league board knew who he was.... much less people who don't follow the Reds. Sleeper is more of a term, at least to me, as someone you may not have heard of before, but you better pay attention to or you are going to miss the boat.

I scrolled down the list and saw that he termed them sleepers and took it to mean that he thinks they have a chance of being better players then what he had them originally rated as or guys who could rise to the top of the system in the future. My point was why not just go out on the limb and make that judgement call and rate them as higher prospects. Although what you suggests probably makes more sense, as these were guys who were sleepers but now are known commodities.

[RedsManRick]

Sleeper is more of a term, at least to me, as someone you may not have heard of before, but you better pay attention to or you are going to miss the boat.

But wouldn't the same thing be accomplished simply by giving them ratings higher than others have? I mean, if he's evaluating the player's solely on his evaluation of their merit, than buzz and others' expectation shouldn't come in to the picture at all.

To me, a sleeper is somebody who hasn't yet merited a high ranking, but who you suspect is ready to take the next step. Dorn and Viola have accomplished things, they just haven't gotten much accolade for it.

[dougdirt]

But wouldn't the same thing be accomplished simply by giving them ratings higher than others have? I mean, if he's evaluating the player's solely on his evaluation of their merit, than buzz and others' expectation shouldn't come in to the picture at all.

To me, a sleeper is somebody who hasn't yet merited a high ranking, but who you suspect is ready to take the next step. Dorn and Viola have accomplished things, they just haven't gotten much accolade for it.

That would be like giving say, Kyle Loztkar a Top 20 ranking in baseball right now because someone really likes him and thinks he could develop into a legit #1 starter one day. Although it does seem that some people are willing to do that more and more these days because similar players have gone on to do things, they get pushed up the charts faster than the previous guy did based off of what the previous guy did (see Snider, Travis for example because he has been compared to Jay Bruce, despite that he plays a not so good corner outfield position mind you).

[Lockdwn11]

It's a joke, I swear. What does one have to do to get an A+? apparently being the best prospect in baseball doesn't cut it. Votto and Cueto ahead of Bailey. yeah right.

I hate it when he does that "intuitive feeling" or "I have a good feeling about this guy" thing. I'm not quite sure feelings should be used to rate prospects.

Hey, I was wondering if you still feel that it's a joke to rate Cueto ahead of Bailey.

[dougdirt]

Hey, I was wondering if you still feel that it's a joke to rate Cueto ahead of Bailey.

Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.

[Lockdwn11]

Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.

Doug I value your opinion so I would like to know why you feel this way because at this point I see Cueto improving and Bailey well not so much I have seen them both pitch and I have to tell you that Cueto's stuff look better to me then Baileys. I welcome your thoughts.

[Benihana]

Joke, no.... I think its incorrect still though. Cueto will be better for a year or two, but after that I think Bailey vaults ahead of him.

Not me.

[dougdirt]

Doug I value your opinion so I would like to know why you feel this way because at this point I see Cueto improving and Bailey well not so much I have seen them both pitch and I have to tell you that Cueto's stuff look better to me then Baileys. I welcome your thoughts.

Bailey has a better body and cleaner mechanics.

Bailey has a better fastball both because of speed and because of the plane it comes in on. Given that Baileys taller, his release point is going to be closer to the plate, so even if they are both throwing a 92 MPH fastball (just an example), Bailey's is going to get to the plate faster and its also going to be moving faster when it does reach the plate.

Bailey's curveball is a better offspeed pitch than Cueto's changeup or slider. All of the pitches are very good pitches though.

Bailey's change up which has been a lacking pitch in the past flashed some true promise this spring. With some repititions I think it could become an above average pitch.

Now Cueto has that special thing in his control that Bailey doesn't always have. That is what makes him the better pitcher of the two now and likely for the next two years. However I think Bailey will eventually catch up and pass Cueto up.

[OnBaseMachine]

There's no way I'd go as far as calling Homer Bailey's curveball better than Johnny Cueto's slider or changeup. Right now Johnny Cueto has three plus pitches, which is very hard to do. Homer Bailey has two plus pitches, though the curve is still inconsistent and a changeup that, at best case scenario, turns into a plus pitch but more likely an above average pitch.

[Lockdwn11]

Bailey has a better body and cleaner mechanics.

Bailey has a better fastball both because of speed and because of the plane it comes in on. Given that Baileys taller, his release point is going to be closer to the plate, so even if they are both throwing a 92 MPH fastball (just an example), Bailey's is going to get to the plate faster and its also going to be moving faster when it does reach the plate.

Bailey's curveball is a better offspeed pitch than Cueto's changeup or slider. All of the pitches are very good pitches though.

Bailey's change up which has been a lacking pitch in the past flashed some true promise this spring. With some repititions I think it could become an above average pitch.

Now Cueto has that special thing in his control that Bailey doesn't always have. That is what makes him the better pitcher of the two now and likely for the next two years. However I think Bailey will eventually catch up and pass Cueto up.

I would agree that Bailey looks more the part but and it just my opinion Cueto's off speed stuff looks better to me that slider is just plan nasty and his change isn't far behind !! I also see Cueto pitching at 94-96 I haven't seen Bailey do that in sometime.

[dougdirt]

I would agree that Bailey looks more the part but and it just my opinion Cueto's off speed stuff looks better to me that slider is just plan nasty and his change isn't far behind !! I also see Cueto pitching at 94-96 I haven't seen Bailey do that in sometime.

I saw Bailey do it last September. Cueto has the advantage that he pitched during the Winter and is a lot closer to 'midseason' form than almost everyone else. It certainly has given him an advantage at this time against MLB hitters. I am more worried about what Homer Bailey is doing in June and July than what he does in March and April because of all the things going on with him (trying to shorten his stride some, working on control, working on a slider and a cut fastball).

[Ga_Red]

doug,
it's NOT April 1,
it can't be hyperbole,
is this and *un* day?
if not , I give up,,,,

I know you aren't serious
because you're wrong in
every single tenet you
propose, except that
HB is taller.

I have serious reservations about
Homer even making it to the bigs!!!

[Lockdwn11]

I saw Bailey do it last September. Cueto has the advantage that he pitched during the Winter and is a lot closer to 'midseason' form than almost everyone else. It certainly has given him an advantage at this time against MLB hitters. I am more worried about what Homer Bailey is doing in June and July than what he does in March and April because of all the things going on with him (trying to shorten his stride some, working on control, working on a slider and a cut fastball).

Like I said I value your opinion on this board but we will have to disagree on this one. I have thought for sometime that Cueto was the better of the two.

[dougdirt]

doug,
it's NOT April 1,
it can't be hyperbole,
is this and *un* day?
if not , I give up,,,,

I know you aren't serious
because you're wrong in
every single tenet you
propose, except that
HB is taller.

I have serious reservations about
Homer even making it to the bigs!!!

I don't even know what you just typed honestly.

Bailey does have a better fastball. Its heavy and comes in on a much better downward plane. They have similar speeds, but Baileys is moving faster the entire way because his release point is closer.

Bailey's curveball, while its just my opinion (although shared by some scouts as well), rates out higher than Cueto's offspeed stuff.

The changeup's aren't really a debate, Cueto's is better.

What did I miss?

[TRF]

I saw Bailey do it last September. Cueto has the advantage that he pitched during the Winter and is a lot closer to 'midseason' form than almost everyone else. It certainly has given him an advantage at this time against MLB hitters. I am more worried about what Homer Bailey is doing in June and July than what he does in March and April because of all the things going on with him (trying to shorten his stride some, working on control, working on a slider and a cut fastball).

So Cueto has the advantage of being in midseason form after pitching 22 innings in winter ball.

4 months ago.

please.

Bailey's first start was ho hum at best. He had the advantage of being in midseason form, pitching against guys that had never seen him outside of a little video, and of course he has all those tools that Cueto lacks like height, and a curveball that is otherworldy.

Bailey all but had a rotation spot handed to him, and he couldn't harness his gifts. But Cueto's 22 (I think it was 22) innings in winterball gave him an advantage over Bailey? Not the fact that he's a pitcher and Bailey is more of a thrower, at least at this stage of his career.

I really look forward to the day when Bailey does harness his gifts. He hasn't so far, and there have been plenty of conflicting reports about his makeup and coachability during ST.