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Thread: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

  1. #46
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Lockdwn11 View Post
    Like I said I value your opinion on this board but we will have to disagree on this one. I have thought for sometime that Cueto was the better of the two.
    Well that is why we all have different brains.... either way, I am still pretty excited that we have both guys in our system.

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  3. #47
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

    And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

    And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.
    Add to that Cueto's control with a more confident attitude and he's easily ahead of Bailey right now.

    There's no reason though that Homer shouldn't dominate AAA this year and still be a high potential SP for the Reds. It's easy to forget that Bailey's 2006 was even better than Cueto's 2007. If he keeps the walks down and learns pitching, he'll be fine.

  5. #49
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    In Dougs defense, I don't think he's saying Bailey is the better pitcher at the moment. What he is saying is, that Baileys fastball is better 'stuff wise', he just can't locate it as well as Cueto is doing with his right now.

    I agree with DD that I like Bailey to pass Cueto at some point down the line, but my goodness how good is Cueto right now?

    Right now Baileys a thrower with a lot of special sauce on his throws, he just has to learn to be the pitcher Cueto appears to be in LIMITED action we've seen of him lately.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

    And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.
    Really, I like Bailey's potential almost as much as Dougdirt (no one likes him AS much) - someday I think his curve would top M2's list, and maybe his fastball, too but baseball is about what are you doing for me today? And right now I agree with M2, Cueto's ahead in every phase of his game.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Really, I like Bailey's potential almost as much as Dougdirt (no one likes him AS much) - someday I think his curve would top M2's list, and maybe his fastball, too but baseball is about what are you doing for me today? And right now I agree with M2, Cueto's ahead in every phase of his game.
    I think few things on this planet are as overrated as Bailey's curve. I don't think it's ever going to be all that good a pitch. It's got nice bend, but, IMO, it lacks bite and hitters will learn how to time it if he ever spends much time in a given league. Long term, I don't think it's a pitch he's going to want to leave in the strike zone.

    I'm not sure where his fastball's headed. It's not as good as it was in 2006 and I'm hoping he's not one of those phenoms whose heater peaked at a young age. He's lost movement on it and the total body effort he puts into each one is, IMO, unsustainable for a starting pitcher. I'm hoping this is just a case of growing pains with him and he rediscovers that exploding fastball with the easy stroke, but right now he's working harder to get less and I really do wonder if he's pitching with an injured arm.
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.

    And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.
    Don't forget Cueto's mental make-up.

  9. #53
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Now Cueto has that special thing in his control that Bailey doesn't always have. That is what makes him the better pitcher of the two now and likely for the next two years. However I think Bailey will eventually catch up and pass Cueto up.
    It's not just that Bailey "doesn't always have" Cueto's control. He'd have to cut his BB rate in half to get there. It's an ocean of difference, and as good as Bailey's stuff might be, it's unlikely he will ever have the control of Cueto.

    So the other stuff you said may very well be correct, but control is one supremely important area where Cueto will probably always hold a significant edge over Bailey. If Bailey holds an edge in stuff, I don't think it's a big enough edge to make up that control difference.

    I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?

  10. #54
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    It's not just that Bailey "doesn't always have" Cueto's control. He'd have to cut his BB rate in half to get there. It's an ocean of difference, and as good as Bailey's stuff might be, it's unlikely he will ever have the control of Cueto.
    Not really. Walk rates don't equal control. The difference between the two control wise is about 7 or 8 pitches a game at most. Bailey threw strikes 61% of the time last year. Cueto at best is going to throw strikes 68% of the time.

    I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?
    I don't know if Bailey will put together a game like that, but I think his overall numbers could be better than what Cueto can put up in a full season. Cueto's cieling isn't to have games like that consistently, as thats just an expectation that no one could ever reach. Odds are that Cueto won't ever have a game like that again in his entire career.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not really. Walk rates don't equal control. The difference between the two control wise is about 7 or 8 pitches a game at most. Bailey threw strikes 61% of the time last year. Cueto at best is going to throw strikes 68% of the time.

    I don't know if Bailey will put together a game like that, but I think his overall numbers could be better than what Cueto can put up in a full season. Cueto's cieling isn't to have games like that consistently, as thats just an expectation that no one could ever reach. Odds are that Cueto won't ever have a game like that again in his entire career.
    just curious why you love Homer so much ? are you in fact Homer Bailey ??

  12. #56
    part of BBN jmac's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaFan View Post
    just curious why you love Homer so much ? are you in fact Homer Bailey ??
    I just hope Homer ends up being half the pitcher DD thinks.
    Cueto has the stuff to be an exceptional big league pitcher. If Bailey ends up bettering that, then that will just make the reds that much better.

  13. #57
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.
    It's pretty tough to criticize Cueto's delivery.

    IMHO, the secret to Cueto is his command-specifically his ability to locate all of his pitches.
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  14. #58
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not really. Walk rates don't equal control. The difference between the two control wise is about 7 or 8 pitches a game at most. Bailey threw strikes 61% of the time last year. Cueto at best is going to throw strikes 68% of the time.
    Walk rates might not be a perfect measure of control, but I think it's better than percentage of strikes thrown. Pitchers aren't trying to throw a strike with every pitch. Pitchers with better control, i.e. ones that get ahead in the count more often, figure to throw more intentional balls than pitchers with poor control. They are, however, trying not to walk just about every batter they face.

    Just wondering, what % chance would you say it is that Bailey ever matches Cueto's command? Not asking for anything precise obviously, just curious what you think about that.

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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's pretty tough to criticize Cueto's delivery.

    IMHO, the secret to Cueto is his command-specifically his ability to locate all of his pitches.
    It's the knowing where to throw it next and the setting up sequences that really impress me with Cueto. Yes he has great stuff, but he also really knows how to use it in a way that belies his years.
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    Re: John Sickels - Cincinnati Reds Top 20

    While I have always been a Bailey doubter, Doug is right that it's way too early to conclude anything.

    For a long time, it looked like the Twins were cheap and idiotic to take Joe Mauer over Mark Prior.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008


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