Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.
And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.
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I'm witchcrafting everybody.
There's no reason though that Homer shouldn't dominate AAA this year and still be a high potential SP for the Reds. It's easy to forget that Bailey's 2006 was even better than Cueto's 2007. If he keeps the walks down and learns pitching, he'll be fine.
In Dougs defense, I don't think he's saying Bailey is the better pitcher at the moment. What he is saying is, that Baileys fastball is better 'stuff wise', he just can't locate it as well as Cueto is doing with his right now.
I agree with DD that I like Bailey to pass Cueto at some point down the line, but my goodness how good is Cueto right now?
Right now Baileys a thrower with a lot of special sauce on his throws, he just has to learn to be the pitcher Cueto appears to be in LIMITED action we've seen of him lately.
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Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
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I'm not sure where his fastball's headed. It's not as good as it was in 2006 and I'm hoping he's not one of those phenoms whose heater peaked at a young age. He's lost movement on it and the total body effort he puts into each one is, IMO, unsustainable for a starting pitcher. I'm hoping this is just a case of growing pains with him and he rediscovers that exploding fastball with the easy stroke, but right now he's working harder to get less and I really do wonder if he's pitching with an injured arm.
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
So the other stuff you said may very well be correct, but control is one supremely important area where Cueto will probably always hold a significant edge over Bailey. If Bailey holds an edge in stuff, I don't think it's a big enough edge to make up that control difference.
I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?
I don't know if Bailey will put together a game like that, but I think his overall numbers could be better than what Cueto can put up in a full season. Cueto's cieling isn't to have games like that consistently, as thats just an expectation that no one could ever reach. Odds are that Cueto won't ever have a game like that again in his entire career.I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?
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Just wondering, what % chance would you say it is that Bailey ever matches Cueto's command? Not asking for anything precise obviously, just curious what you think about that.
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While I have always been a Bailey doubter, Doug is right that it's way too early to conclude anything.
For a long time, it looked like the Twins were cheap and idiotic to take Joe Mauer over Mark Prior.
". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008