Between Bailey and Cueto, the three best pitches (in no specific order) are: Cueto's fastball, Cueto's slider and Cueto's changeup.
And I'll take Cueto's clean, consistent, unforced mechanics every day of the week too.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Add to that Cueto's control with a more confident attitude and he's easily ahead of Bailey right now.
There's no reason though that Homer shouldn't dominate AAA this year and still be a high potential SP for the Reds. It's easy to forget that Bailey's 2006 was even better than Cueto's 2007. If he keeps the walks down and learns pitching, he'll be fine.
In Dougs defense, I don't think he's saying Bailey is the better pitcher at the moment. What he is saying is, that Baileys fastball is better 'stuff wise', he just can't locate it as well as Cueto is doing with his right now.
I agree with DD that I like Bailey to pass Cueto at some point down the line, but my goodness how good is Cueto right now?
Right now Baileys a thrower with a lot of special sauce on his throws, he just has to learn to be the pitcher Cueto appears to be in LIMITED action we've seen of him lately.
Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13, 15
University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98
“Everything that happens before Death is what counts.”
― Ray Bradbury, Something Wicked This Way Comes
Really, I like Bailey's potential almost as much as Dougdirt (no one likes him AS much) - someday I think his curve would top M2's list, and maybe his fastball, too but baseball is about what are you doing for me today? And right now I agree with M2, Cueto's ahead in every phase of his game.
I think few things on this planet are as overrated as Bailey's curve. I don't think it's ever going to be all that good a pitch. It's got nice bend, but, IMO, it lacks bite and hitters will learn how to time it if he ever spends much time in a given league. Long term, I don't think it's a pitch he's going to want to leave in the strike zone.
I'm not sure where his fastball's headed. It's not as good as it was in 2006 and I'm hoping he's not one of those phenoms whose heater peaked at a young age. He's lost movement on it and the total body effort he puts into each one is, IMO, unsustainable for a starting pitcher. I'm hoping this is just a case of growing pains with him and he rediscovers that exploding fastball with the easy stroke, but right now he's working harder to get less and I really do wonder if he's pitching with an injured arm.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
It's not just that Bailey "doesn't always have" Cueto's control. He'd have to cut his BB rate in half to get there. It's an ocean of difference, and as good as Bailey's stuff might be, it's unlikely he will ever have the control of Cueto.
So the other stuff you said may very well be correct, but control is one supremely important area where Cueto will probably always hold a significant edge over Bailey. If Bailey holds an edge in stuff, I don't think it's a big enough edge to make up that control difference.
I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?
Not really. Walk rates don't equal control. The difference between the two control wise is about 7 or 8 pitches a game at most. Bailey threw strikes 61% of the time last year. Cueto at best is going to throw strikes 68% of the time.
I don't know if Bailey will put together a game like that, but I think his overall numbers could be better than what Cueto can put up in a full season. Cueto's cieling isn't to have games like that consistently, as thats just an expectation that no one could ever reach. Odds are that Cueto won't ever have a game like that again in his entire career.I guess I don't get the idea that Bailey's ceiling is higher. We saw Cueto's ceiling this week. Fastball consistently sitting mid-90s, very good secondary pitches, pinpoint control. 7 IP, 10 K, 0 BB. That is about as good as you can get. Cueto might not do that every time out but his "ceiling" is to consistently have games like the one he just had. It's not a knock on Bailey to say Cueto's ceiling is higher. Honestly, what are the odds that Homer Bailey, in his entire MLB career, ever has a game with 10 K and 0 BB?
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Walk rates might not be a perfect measure of control, but I think it's better than percentage of strikes thrown. Pitchers aren't trying to throw a strike with every pitch. Pitchers with better control, i.e. ones that get ahead in the count more often, figure to throw more intentional balls than pitchers with poor control. They are, however, trying not to walk just about every batter they face.
Just wondering, what % chance would you say it is that Bailey ever matches Cueto's command? Not asking for anything precise obviously, just curious what you think about that.
School's out. What did you expect?
While I have always been a Bailey doubter, Doug is right that it's way too early to conclude anything.
For a long time, it looked like the Twins were cheap and idiotic to take Joe Mauer over Mark Prior.
Stick to your guns.
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |