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Thread: Here we go...Haren/D'backs get Haren

  1. #61
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Nah, he's got power and bat speed Casey never had.
    I'd be stunned if Votto SLGs over .500 in a full season. He's not going to be filling out anymore.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Would anyone do Bailey and Cueto straight up for Bedard, Haren, or Kazmir? No frills, two for one?
    Yes. I would. Without hesitation. And have said so on a variety of threads.

  4. #63
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Can the Reds trade Todd Frazier? He was just drafted last year and I thought there is a restriction on trading a guy just drafted. (Of course, he could be a PTBL). He might be someone the other team would want.

    Or if the other team wants guys more ready for prime time, Maloney and Roenicke could be targets.

    My guess is that these names could be raised.
    Yes, I believe they can trade Todd Frazier or any other draftee from last season, but there is one catch, they have to be under contract for 1 full year (or perhaps its just 1 year from the draft). The way around this is to make the trade for a player to be named later, then that player is the recent draftee that the other team wanted.

  5. #64
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    It seems to me the O's and A's have the leverage and the Reds do not.
    I'm not sure they do have much in the way of leverage. Clearly we're talking about two teams congnizant of the fact that they need to rebuild. Not making a deal while you've got hot properties could mean extra years out of the money.

    Also, the market will shrink as the winter wears on. Teams will spend blood and treasure elsewhere. Demand is only going to decrease. In fact, the A's, O's, Twins, Giants and Beelzebubbas might all be in competition with each to get a boatload of prospects in return for a pitcher.
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  6. #65
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd be stunned if Votto SLGs over .500 in a full season. He's not going to be filling out anymore.
    I'd be stunned if he didn't SLG .550 playing for the Reds.

    If Hatteberg can SLG .474 at his age, .550 should be a cinch for Joey.

  7. #66
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd be stunned if Votto SLGs over .500 in a full season. He's not going to be filling out anymore.
    Prepare to be stunned then.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  8. #67
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I'd be stunned if he didn't SLG .550 playing for the Reds.

    If Hatteberg can SLG .474 at his age, .550 should be a cinch for Joey.
    The difference in SLG .474 and .550 is massive. Huge. The higher you go the more difficult it is to reach those numbers. A lot of folks can slug .474 in platoon exposure in GAB; .550 in a full season is another matter entirely.

  9. #68
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm not sure they do have much in the way of leverage. Clearly we're talking about two teams congnizant of the fact that they need to rebuild. Not making a deal while you've got hot properties could mean extra years out of the money.

    Also, the market will shrink as the winter wears on. Teams will spend blood and treasure elsewhere. Demand is only going to decrease. In fact, the A's, O's, Twins, Giants and Beelzebubbas might all be in competition with each to get a boatload of prospects in return for a pitcher.
    I agree. Right now, there are a lot of hungry suitors jockeying for position. In the end though I see a sellers frenzy as a possibility too. I just think that the first dominoe or too must fall first though.

    I think the Reds have enough expendable chips though to get things done. It may not be one of the Big Three though. It could end up being someone seldom mentioned here.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 12-12-2007 at 12:41 PM.

  10. #69
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm not sure they do have much in the way of leverage. Clearly we're talking about two teams congnizant of the fact that they need to rebuild. Not making a deal while you've got hot properties could mean extra years out of the money.

    Also, the market will shrink as the winter wears on. Teams will spend blood and treasure elsewhere. Demand is only going to decrease. In fact, the A's, O's, Twins, Giants and Beelzebubbas might all be in competition with each to get a boatload of prospects in return for a pitcher.
    Agree completely. The Orioles especially are just as desperate to trade Bedard as the Reds are to acquire a pitcher. All you have to do is read their messageboards and see how much they fear Bedard being on their opening day roster. What good is an ace pitcher if the rest of your team stinks? They have to cash him in for prospects. With Kuroda signing with the Dodgers, that's one big contender out of the mix. The Reds and the Mariners are the only two big guns left out there that have a lot to offer.
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #70
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm not sure they do have much in the way of leverage. Clearly we're talking about two teams congnizant of the fact that they need to rebuild. Not making a deal while you've got hot properties could mean extra years out of the money.
    Maybe so but they don't have to trade them before this season, they will continue to be very valuable commodities for at least another year ... whereas the Reds really must do something before April 2008.

    The Reds are operating on a compressed timeline, the O's and A's are not under that restriction, they can both afford to wait if they have to.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #71
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    In terms of slugging, think of this way.

    300's: Mostly singles, few XHB
    400's: Mostly singles and doubles, few HR
    500's: Good mix of hits, with lots of either HR or 2B/3B.
    600's: Lots of homers and doubles/triples

    I think Votto's peak is going to look an awful lot like Sean Casey's with a touch less BA and a touch more power.

    Casey had the following seasons:
    Age 24, 1999: .332/.399/.539 -- 594 AB, 42 2B, 25 HR
    Age 25, 2000: .315/.385/.517 -- 480 AB, 33 2B, 20 HR
    Age 29, 2004: .324/.381/.534 -- 571 AB, 44 2B, 24 HR

    I think a line like .290/.370/.520 is fully reasonable for Votto, if not next year, then soon. You don't have to be a "slugger" to slug .500. 40 2B and 20 HR will put you over the 500 mark.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #72
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Who has the biggest upside? Votto? Bailey? Cueto? All of them?

    Of the three, I go with Votto, but many on here are satisfied with a Hatteburg and Cantu is gone.

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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Who has the biggest upside? Votto? Bailey? Cueto? All of them?

    .
    pitchers always have the biggest upside, and are always more expensive and more difficult to replace. This is especially true for big pitchers like Bailey. if you can keep Bailey, then you do it.

    of course, Bailey also has the biggest downside and highest trade value
    Last edited by princeton; 12-12-2007 at 12:55 PM.

  15. #74
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    pitchers always have the biggest upside, and are always more expensive and more difficult to replace. This is especially true for big pitchers like Bailey. if you can keep Bailey, then you do it.

    of course, Bailey also has the biggest downside and highest trade value
    Princeton,
    On the other thread you advocated keeping Hamilton and Bruce. If you were the GM, who would you be dangling? And who would you target?
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #75
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    My preference would be to keep Bruce and Votto and deal anyone else. Dunn is not going to be a Red after 2008.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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