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Thread: Here we go...Haren/D'backs get Haren

  1. #76
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Maybe so but they don't have to trade them before this season, they will continue to be very valuable commodities for at least another year ... whereas the Reds really must do something before April 2008.

    The Reds are operating on a compressed timeline, the O's and A's are not under that restriction, they can both afford to wait if they have to.
    That's a double-edged sword though. Right now they can get a prime package of players for their guy for a prime package of players that can really accelerate a re-building prospect - probably much as you'll get later - most likely more - two years of Bedard beats one or one and a half.

    And if you're gonna deal why wait? An injury or disappointing start to the season and you could miss out on the prized prospect that you might want most.

    They also have to factor in that these teams are wanting to set their rotations for opening day, not sometime in June. If you don't deal there's a good chance that some suitors move on to plan B or C or D.

    I would agree that sellers have the most leverage, but there is a downside for being too cute for your own good too.

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  3. #77
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    And if you're gonna deal why wait?
    ... to get what you want. They have ZERO reasons to make a trade until they get a deal they are happy with.
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  4. #78
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    As I said in the other Haren thread -- Beane likes to keep his farm stocked with lots of players that can provide a ready talent stream. I think you can appeal to his pragmatic side with quantity and well as quality.

    He's a guy who'd be just as happy to land some high-upside, low level guys like Drew Stubbs as he would a "just add water" major leaguer like Joey Votto.

    As such, I think you can backload a deal with Beane and get away with a lower output of top talent. Of the GMs involved, I think he's the best candidate to get a deal done without Jay Bruce's name constantly coming up.
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  5. #79
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Princeton,
    On the other thread you advocated keeping Hamilton and Bruce. If you were the GM, who would you be dangling? And who would you target?
    Reds can't win with both Jr and Dunn in the OF. optimally, I'd be trying to do something creative involving Dunn, one of the available pitchers like Haren, and a third team. But it'd probably turn out to be a big waste of time.

    by dangling Hamilton, Krivsky is sailing a more direct course. But it leaves the same OF problem. We'll certainly miss Hamilton.

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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    I really like Votto and his potential (he exactly the type of hitter I like) but he could easily be dealt. Move Dunn to first, have BOTH Bruce and Hamilton in the OF (with the Griff in LF) and you improve both the D and the O. I know that wouldn't happen, but that is what I would do.

    I think that Votto is very much a Bean type player (high OBP and decent power) and could be instrumental in landing Haren. Couple him along with the afformentioned prospects and deal.

  7. #81
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I'd love to see a stud pitcher come out of our farm system, but I'd play the odds and keep Votto
    before Ceuto. Votto is ready now, and we need "now" help for 2008.

    That's an interesting take on things. The Reds haven't developed a decent starting pitcher for the Reds or any other team since Tom Browning. I know there's been a change in management and possibly in philosophy and personnel but the odds are greater that Bailey and Cueto will be busts than it would be for the position players simply because they are from the Reds farm system.
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  8. #82
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    I'd be trying to do something creative involving Dunn
    Dunn has a no-trade clause and absolutely no reason to waive it. He is going to hit a big payday next off-season, he has no incentive to accept a sign and trade deal. Whatever money he could get in that kind of a deal, he could get even more as free agent.
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  9. #83
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    ... to get what you want. They have ZERO reasons to make a trade until they get a deal they are happy with.
    I think thst's the reason they're waiting now, but I think there is a point of critical mass this offseason (a Santana deal?) where the dam breaks and several deals for pitching occur.

    Some may not happen at all (Kazmir), but I have a feeling some will. I think in the end there are too many teams looking for pitching and several of them have a surplus of young talent that can help a troubled franchise get better.

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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I think thst's the reason they're waiting now, but I think there is a point of critical mass this offseason (a Santana deal?) where the dam breaks and several deals for pitching occur.

    Some may not happen at all (Kazmir), but I have a feeling some will. I think in the end there are too many teams looking for pitching and several of them have a surplus of young talent that can help a troubled franchise get better.
    the trade deadlines have come and gone the last few years with no major deals because teams have not been able to come to agreement, even though numerous teams have paid a price for not addressing shortcomings. Who is undervaluing or overvaluing is irrelevant, the point is that even with compelling reasons we have seen a trade market in recent years where the tendency is for deals not to be made.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  11. #85
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Dunn has a no-trade clause and absolutely no reason to waive it. He is going to hit a big payday next off-season, he has no incentive to accept a sign and trade deal. Whatever money he could get in that kind of a deal, he could get even more as free agent.
    my understanding is that he's got a no-trade for a couple more baseball months, which certainly he'd put up for sale. He wants a LTC.

    And there's no reason for players like Johan Santana (or Jr, way back in the day) to sign immediately instead of waiting a year, except for the fact that sometimes they do because the money's outstanding or they like the team to which they are dealt, and they might get injured before they get their big deal. Even Dunn, who barely moves, could be injured. People on other teams actually throw the ball hard, plus he's on a team with Ryan Freel, who does move.

  12. #86
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    my understanding is that he's got a no-trade for a couple more baseball months
    then he has a limited no-trade(supposedly he can name 10 teams he will accept a trade to). A smart agent will put in a list of 10 teams up that have no interest in Dunn ... which will essentailly allow him to keep his no-trade clause.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  13. #87
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    then he has a limited no-trade(supposedly he can name 10 teams he will accept a trade to). A smart agent will put in a list of 10 teams up that have no interest in Dunn ... which will essentailly allow him to keep his no-trade clause.
    I disagree. A smart agent would put the top ten teams that his client would want to play for on the list.
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Those of you who are willing to give both Bailey and Cueto for Haren: What would you do for a fifth starter? And how will you deal with the inevitable injuries?

    I just think that if we go that way, by June we'll be trotting Tom Shearn and Jim Brower out there for 40% of our starts...
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

  15. #89
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    A smart agent would put the top ten teams that his client would want to play for on the list.
    I have no doubt that the agent will put teams possessing a lot of money on the list.

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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by chicoruiz View Post
    Those of you who are willing to give both Bailey and Cueto for Haren: What would you do for a fifth starter? And how will you deal with the inevitable injuries?

    I just think that if we go that way, by June we'll be trotting Tom Shearn and Jim Brower out there for 40% of our starts...
    Lieber

    (I don't want to trade both of them, but I would like Lieber for depth anyways-keep them both in AAA)


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