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Thread: Here we go...Haren/D'backs get Haren

  1. #106
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The trouble is, you're making that deal without any knowledge of the percentages -- just a guess. It might be a 75% chance at a $50 or it might be a 5% chance.

    If you want to deal in certainties, the certanties are this:

    Haren has performed at the level of a top-flight major league pitcher.

    Neither Bailey nor Cueto has ever performed at the level of a top-flight major league pitcher.

    Anything else you want to speculate about is total guesswork.
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    The trade value of in terms of WARP for pitchers ranked as 11-25 prospects over their 6 year pre-FA period is ~19 WARP. Trading two of these prospects would equal ~38 WARP.

    The WARP trade value of Dan Haren given his current contract status is around 25 WARP.

    I'm not going to defend this framework because it isn't mine. However, it's the only quantitative approach I've seen and it has the support of people I trust.

    Certainly just a guide and there other other factors involved. But it illustrates my basic assertion that you are trading away the potential of more value with less certainty attached for the realization of less value with a greater degree of certainty. When somebody has gone through the calculation, the numbers favor keeping the prospects.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #107
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Doug, I don't think this accurately reflects the concept in making the trade. Two slightly worse pitchers over 6 years may or may not tell you if the trade succeeded.

    We are talking about a team going for the playoffs. If a Haren will help the Reds -- once or possibly twice -- get into the playoffs or, better, deep in the playoffs, the deal is worthwhile. Bailey and Cueto being "slightly worse" provides nothing for me if the team is losing.

    One advantage of a proven vet is that he is more likely, in the short term, to stand up well in the stretch run and post-season. And a "slightly worse" performance in a big game could turn the whole season around.

    So, it's a more complicated equation. Of course, it could turn out opposite-- a Bailey or Cueto could turn out to be post-season heroes. But the concept of the trade is that a vet is more likely to hold up in those situations.
    And what of the possibility of Dan Haren helping the Reds to a series of 2nd and 3rd place, non-playoff finishes? This possibility seems to be routinely ignored in these conversations.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #108
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Big money contenders would be the likely targets. The fly in that ointment though is if the Reds are in the hunt (and they may be), then Dunn isn't going anywhere no matter who's on that list.

    Moving him this winter will probably prove difficult because teams seem resolutely unwilling to help themselves. A power LH bat is a need on a whole host of clubs and there's pretty much nothing on that front on the free agent market (unless you want to count Geoff Jenkins). It's the new collusion, not designed to suppress wages, but to anesthitize the bottom third of the league. Prospects rule, players are to be viewed with deep suspicion. .900 OPS potential trumps .900 OPS reality.

    There's a number of clubs who'd benefit from having Jr. around too and I get the feeling he might be easier to move because someone will fall in love with his box office potential. It also makes more sense to move Jr. because you might want to keep Dunn around past 2008.

    I would LOVE to trade Jr. before anyone else on this team. But I just can't see him waiving his no-trade for one of the teams we'd be talking to (Oakland, Tampa, Baltimore). I would even trade Jr. to Milwaukee for Capuano, but I doubt Wayne would due to the potential fan backlash.

    My guess is he'd waive his no-trade to go to Boston, Atlanta, or either NY team. The problem is there's not really a match there.

    Given that, I would approach him to see if he'd be interested in moving to 1B, particularly if the Reds trade Votto in the deal for a pitcher. If so, I'd offer to sign him to a 3-year, $20 MM extension beginning in 2009. He would get the stability of a three year contract (four if you include this year), and he would get to retire a Red. The Reds would get to keep their hometown hero, and hopefully solve the 1B problem for the next couple years. Meanwhile, having Jr. here might make it more attractive for Dunn to re-sign, and he'd man the OF with Bruce and Hamilton for the next decade. I love the thought of that.

    If he really objects to moving to 1B, he may be more willing to waive his no-trade. In other words, suggest to him that if he's going to remain here, he's going to have to break in a first baseman's mitt. If he waives his no trade in order to remain in the OF, you can work him into a deal.
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    There's a number of clubs who'd benefit from having Jr. around too and I get the feeling he might be easier to move because someone will fall in love with his box office potential. It also makes more sense to move Jr. because you might want to keep Dunn around past 2008.
    don't tease me

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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And what of the possibility of Dan Haren helping the Reds to a series of 2nd and 3rd place, non-playoff finishes? This possibility seems to be routinely ignored in these conversations.
    Any trade can fail, nobody knows the future performances. The point is simply that it's not a mere question of who may do better over 6 years. The idea of the trade is to get someone who can hold up in a pennant race, which usually favors the veteran pitcher.

    The Reds traded John Franco for Randy Myers. The Mets got a pitcher who performed better for a longer time.

    But the Reds got a closer for a world champion team.

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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post

    But the Reds got a closer for a world champion team.
    Reds win that WS with Franco, IMO

  8. #112
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The idea of the trade is to get someone who can hold up in a pennant race, which usually favors the veteran pitcher.
    Until I see evidence otherwise, I consider this is an unproven assertion, with minimal anecdotal supporting evidence (and comparable evidence to the contrary). Brett Myers pitched quite well down the stretch while Billy Wagner fell apart. In fact, you could make the argument that Billy Wagner cost the Mets a playoff appearance. The anecdotal evidence is hardly consistent, let alone compelling.

    I think good pitchers tend to "hold up" and bad pitchers don't. Outside of that, I don't think veteran experience has much sway at all over pennant race performance and certainly wouldn't make a trade based on that general premise.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-12-2007 at 01:48 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #113
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    This gets a little tricky too, though. If the "slightly worse" pitcher happens to get good over his pre-free agency years, then the team will likely have to trade him prior to the end of the fifth season or just after the fifth season to avoid having to pay him as a FA.
    Still, lets say even at that point we get 5 years of 180 innings and 4.25 ERA average out of both of them. That is infinitly more valuable than what Haren will bring us for 3 years.

  10. #114
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    don't tease me
    I've been wondering if they might try to move Jr. out and bring a CF like Cameron. Supposedly they've talked with Cameron and it's hard to imagine he'd fit unless a monied OF was leaving.
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  11. #115
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    This is my theory. And my concern. Bailey and Votto have more cachet in the Reds' eyes than in the eyes of other GMs, particularly a guy like Beane, who knows what real talent is.
    could you be any more negative towards the Reds, their players, and their front office? It's getting really old. I guess you are saying that Baseball America, John Sickels, and a host of others are not as smart as you? Homer Bailey and Joey Votto are not "real" talent? .........c'mon.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  12. #116
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I've been wondering if they might try to move Jr. out and bring a CF like Cameron. Supposedly they've talked with Cameron and it's hard to imagine he'd fit unless a monied OF was leaving.
    Mods, I'd like to report M2 for Junior teasing

  13. #117
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Still, lets say even at that point we get 5 years of 180 innings and 4.25 ERA average out of both of them. That is infinitly more valuable than what Haren will bring us for 3 years.
    Most pitching prospects never have five solid years, so let's not assume it. Meanwhile 220 IP of 3.75 ERA baseball is a groovy thing to have and Haren's a very good bet to deliver it over the next three seasons.

    Mind you, I'd be looking to keep one of the kid pitchers.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And what of the possibility of Dan Haren helping the Reds to a series of 2nd and 3rd place, non-playoff finishes? This possibility seems to be routinely ignored in these conversations.
    And what of the possibility that Bailey tears his labrum next June and ends up throwing 88 the rest of his career, while Cueto ends up as a middle reliever?

    There are always gambles and possibilities. They could be aces, they could be complete busts. They could strike out 250 guys each or they could end up side by side on the operating table. You don't know.

    The ONLY thing that's for sure is that Dan Haren is an ace starter who would help this team immensely.

  15. #119
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Doug, I don't think this accurately reflects the concept in making the trade. Two slightly worse pitchers over 6 years may or may not tell you if the trade succeeded.

    We are talking about a team going for the playoffs. If a Haren will help the Reds -- once or possibly twice -- get into the playoffs or, better, deep in the playoffs, the deal is worthwhile. Bailey and Cueto being "slightly worse" provides nothing for me if the team is losing.
    You are working under the assumption that the Reds can't make the playoffs with both Bailey and Cueto in the rotation this season.

    One advantage of a proven vet is that he is more likely, in the short term, to stand up well in the stretch run and post-season. And a "slightly worse" performance in a big game could turn the whole season around.
    I don't think thats true though. Pitchers are all one pitch away from being out a year and never being the same. While I do think that a veteran may hold up better in the playoffs than say Bailey would, who has a limited number of innings on his arm, Bailey could also be moved into the bullpen (ala Dontrelle Willis in 2003) to sure things up on that end and go with a 4 man rotation. As far as a 'slightly worse' performance in a big game changing the tune of things, in a 1 game scenario the difference between a 3.85 ERA and a 4.26 ERA is 2 outs of 3 run baseball over 6.1 and 7 innings.

    So, it's a more complicated equation. Of course, it could turn out opposite-- a Bailey or Cueto could turn out to be post-season heroes. But the concept of the trade is that a vet is more likely to hold up in those situations.
    While he may hold up better, would he help get there better than two slightly lesser versions? Probably not.

  16. #120
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by johngalt View Post
    And what of the possibility that Bailey tears his labrum next June and ends up throwing 88 the rest of his career, while Cueto ends up as a middle reliever?

    There are always gambles and possibilities. They could be aces, they could be complete busts. They could strike out 250 guys each or they could end up side by side on the operating table. You don't know.

    The ONLY thing that's for sure is that Dan Haren is an ace starter who would help this team immensely.
    Whats the possibility that Haren does the exact same thing? Its ridiculous to use injuries as a reason to trade someone when that player has never had any type of arm related issues.


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