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Thread: Here we go...Haren/D'backs get Haren

  1. #121
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I've been wondering if they might try to move Jr. out and bring a CF like Cameron. Supposedly they've talked with Cameron and it's hard to imagine he'd fit unless a monied OF was leaving.
    If Hamilton is traded for a pitcher, I'm guessing Cameron will be a Red to play between Griff and Dunn, with Hopper as a backup.

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  3. #122
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Whats the possibility that Haren does the exact same thing? Its ridiculous to use injuries as a reason to trade someone when that player has never had any type of arm related issues.
    Because has already made it past the 22/23/24 age range where a large portion of these arm injuries that wreck careers occur.

    The odds of him suffering an injury that severely limits his effectiveness are much less than the odds that a prospect who has never been pushed to 200 innings in a season will.

    That's not even touching the likelihood that a Bailey or Cueto ever reaches whatever potential they have performance wise.

  4. #123
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by johngalt View Post
    The ONLY thing that's for sure is that Dan Haren is an ace starter who would help this team immensely.
    See, the thing is, that's not a certainty. It's likely that Haren will continue to pitch very well. But it's possible that he gets injured. It's possible that he regresses performance wise. All of the things you listed are possibilities - including Haren's arm falling apart. I don't deny any of them. But asserting that Haren is a 100% lock is just wrong and shortsighted. All I'm asking for is fair treatment for all of the possibilities and not just the grass-is-greener, Haren is complete, absolute, no-doubt sure thing approach.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-12-2007 at 03:07 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #124
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Jay Bruce for Dan Haren.

    I would make that trade if it was 1 for 1.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  6. #125
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    I can't see them picking up Junior's option or extebding him, so I think now is the prefect time to deal Junior if you can. Especially if you can land a top three-type starter and take advantage of the excitement to offset any backlash from the casual fan. I'd hate to wait until the end of 08 and decline his option and possibly see a Barry-esque groundswell of emotion.

    Then I would take any savings realized from moving Junior and apply the bulk to an extension for AD (say AD's current $13M + $4 or 5M from Junior). That's just what I would do if I was Grand Poobah. The Reds? Not so likely.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 12-12-2007 at 03:16 PM.

  7. #126
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If Hamilton is traded for a pitcher, I'm guessing Cameron will be a Red to play between Griff and Dunn, with Hopper as a backup.
    I would be absolutely shocked if the Reds went out and signed Mike Cameron to play CF with Jay Bruce being pushed back to AAA in favor of him.

  8. #127
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by johngalt View Post
    Because has already made it past the 22/23/24 age range where a large portion of these arm injuries that wreck careers occur.

    The odds of him suffering an injury that severely limits his effectiveness are much less than the odds that a prospect who has never been pushed to 200 innings in a season will.

    That's not even touching the likelihood that a Bailey or Cueto ever reaches whatever potential they have performance wise.
    And yet plenty of pitchers over those ages have arm injuries every year. You are also assuming that the Reds throw these guys for 200 innings next year in the majors.

  9. #128
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Would anyone do Bailey and Cueto straight up for Bedard, Haren, or Kazmir? No frills, two for one?

    I would.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #129
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by johngalt View Post
    Because has already made it past the 22/23/24 age range where a large portion of these arm injuries that wreck careers occur.

    The odds of him suffering an injury that severely limits his effectiveness are much less than the odds that a prospect who has never been pushed to 200 innings in a season will.

    That's not even touching the likelihood that a Bailey or Cueto ever reaches whatever potential they have performance wise.
    yes, I think that this is a good argument-- out of 100 pitchers of Bedard's age and 100 pitchers of Cueto's age, you'll get more career-threatening injuries in the Cueto pool. Maybe having two guys in the Cueto pool reduces your risk, but you'll almost certainly get better performance, over a denser set of games in the Bedard pool.

    so if you can make 100 big trades, you'll almost certainly win out with the Bedards. Unfortunately, you only get to do a small number of these things. Good luck, Krivsky

  11. #130
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I would be absolutely shocked if the Reds went out and signed Mike Cameron to play CF with Jay Bruce being pushed back to AAA in favor of him.
    I wouldn't. You do remember who is managing this club, right?

    I think that almost no matter what happens, the Reds have Jay Bruce pegged not to start Opening Day (for better or for worse.) They will bide their time with him in the first month or two, and as soon as one of the starting OF's goes down with an injury, you'll see Bruce get his time to shine.
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #131
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I wouldn't. You do remember who is managing this club, right?

    I think that almost no matter what happens, the Reds have Jay Bruce pegged not to start Opening Day (for better or for worse.) They will bide their time with him in the first month or two, and as soon as one of the starting OF's goes down with an injury, you'll see Bruce get his time to shine.
    I know that the guy running the club thinks so highly of Jay Bruce that he has him off the table in all trade talks.

  13. #132
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/

    The trade value of in terms of WARP for pitchers ranked as 11-25 prospects over their 6 year pre-FA period is ~19 WARP. Trading two of these prospects would equal ~38 WARP.

    The WARP trade value of Dan Haren given his current contract status is around 25 WARP.
    But this isn't a totally apples-to-apples comparison.

    Let's assume WARP is accurate.

    There's definitely cases where a WARP of 25 over 3 years is
    a heck of a lot better than a WARP of 38 over 6 years, by two players.

    One example.. In the playoffs, do you want Haren starting the game, or
    someone "slightly worse".. I want the ace pitching.

    Not to mention that Haren averages 8.3 WARP per year. The other two
    guys average 3.2 WARP per year. That's saying that for the first
    three years, Haren is clearly better that the two players combined,
    assuming WARP is accurate.

    My goal is to make the playoffs in 2008 and 2009. My goal is not to
    spread talent out over 6 years..That's a recipe for consistent 500 seasons.
    Although I agree that if a team is rebuilding, the 38 WARP for 6 years is appealing.

    I'm willing to defer worrying about who pitches in years 4-6 at a later
    time. We can always make other acquisions.

    It seems that the WARP analysis proves Haren is more valuable to a team wanting
    to win now, unless I misunderstood.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #133
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I think that almost no matter what happens, the Reds have Jay Bruce pegged not to start Opening Day (for better or for worse.) They will bide their time with him in the first month or two, and as soon as one of the starting OF's goes down with an injury, you'll see Bruce get his time to shine.
    I don't think that's true at all.

    I think it's pretty obvious that the Reds are planning to trade Hamilton. That means to me they think Jay Bruce will stick on the major league roster.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  15. #134
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Still, lets say even at that point we get 5 years of 180 innings and 4.25 ERA average out of both of them. That is infinitly more valuable than what Haren will bring us for 3 years.
    I think that's a huge stretch.
    My guess is that we might get that out of one of them. The other guy will be a disappointment.
    I have never seen a case where every top prospect for a team pans out to an above average player.

    Remember Greg Jefferies when he was a Mets' prospect? Probably the one of the most hyped prospects in history. In the end, he turned out to be a journeyman..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #135
    You're soaking in it! MartyFan's Avatar
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    Re: Here we go...Haren

    I'm inclined to agree that the Reds see Bruce as a part of this years team. Goodbye Mr. Hamilton, we hardly knew ye.
    "Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."


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