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Thread: Who is more ready?

  1. #16
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    The B in Bailey stands for Ball 4.
    He needs some glasses and a new haircut.


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  3. #17
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    The answer is easy - Bailey. If Cueto was ready, he would have been brought up to the Reds. Its not like the Reds were loaded with effective starters at the end of last year, remember?
    Cueto has better control than Bailey but he throws a lot of high strikes. He has to work on that weakness or he will get shelled in the majors. Bailey's control at the majors was substandard, but he keeps the ball down. He made a lot of improvement with his curveball and he developed a cutter in 2007 but his changeup is poor and that is his weakness.
    I hope they both commit to off-season work and show up equally ready to make the majors in spring training.

  4. #18
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I got the idea for this reading the "How untouchable is Jay Bruce" thread.

    Bailey or Cueto? Which is the better prospect? If you go by the numbers, IMO, it HAS to be Cueto. Bailey has the hype, Cueto the results.

    The one thing Cueto really has over Bailey is control. Sick ridiculous control based on the numbers. His BB/9 improves at every level it seems. His H/9 and his K/9 are just a tick, the merest of ticks below Baileys, but his BB/9 is half of what baileys is (Cueto 2.12, Bailey 4.23 in the minors)

    Cueto also pitched a lot more innings than Bailey did this year. Including winter ball, Cueto ended up with over 180 IP. Bailey due to injury ended up with just over 120 IP, with 45 of those with the Reds.

    They are three months apart in age. Both will be 22 in 2008, Cueto in Feb., Bailey in May.

    Based on last years numbers and development, who is more ready? to pitch for the Reds in 2008. Assume for the sake of argument that one of them HAS to be in the rotation. Do not think like you are a member of the Reds coaching staff. Think like an outside consultant.

    What stats are you comparing, Bailey was totally dominant 2 years ago in AA ball. He has awesome stuff and is only 21. It is really hard to say who is best but BB America had Bailey rated right at the top last year. I hope we are having this discussion about who is the best for years to come!

  5. #19
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigredfan#1 View Post
    What stats are you comparing, Bailey was totally dominant 2 years ago in AA ball. He has awesome stuff and is only 21. It is really hard to say who is best but BB America had Bailey rated right at the top last year. I hope we are having this discussion about who is the best for years to come!
    Pure stuff will only get you so far. You have to throw strikes. Let's compare Bailey's 2006 AA campaign vs. Cueto's in 2007:

    Code:
               IP        ERA      H/9      K/9      BB/9      HR/9      WHIP
    Bailey    68.0      1.59      6.62     10.19    3.71      0.13      1.15
    Cueto     61.0      3.10      7.67     11.36    1.62      0.89      1.03

    Bailey's BB/9 went up to 4.28 in Louisville (Cueto's down to 0.82 in AAA) and all the way to 5.56 for the Reds. He'll absolutely have to lower those numbers if he wants to be a successful major league SP. He's only 21, so there's still time left. For another comparison, Aaron Harang has ranged between 2.17 through 2.02 since 2005. TRF summed in up really well in the first post, Cueto has definitely shown he's almost there. Good thing for the Reds is they both have more raw talent than any SP on the roster save Harang.

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Lets also note that Bailey in AA was 20 and Cueto in AA was 21.

  7. #21
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Let's Compare 2007... Cueto vs. Bailey

    In A+ ` ERA 3.33 WHIP 1.19 / 10.13 2.50
    In AAA ` ERA 2.05 WHIP 1.09 / 3.07 1.20

    Same age, same levels, and guess who's better?

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by mlbfan30 View Post
    Let's Compare 2007... Cueto vs. Bailey

    In A+ ` ERA 3.33 WHIP 1.19 / 10.13 2.50
    In AAA ` ERA 2.05 WHIP 1.09 / 3.07 1.20

    Same age, same levels, and guess who's better?
    Yes, lets use Baileys what, 8 inning REHAB numbers in A+ this year.... Lets also use Homers injured innings in AAA too.

    Lets look at what Bailey did pre MLB call up in AAA this year.
    58.1 innings, 38 hits, 3 HR, 24 walks, 51 strikeouts, 2.31 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

    Cueto went 22 innings, 22 hits, 2 HR, 2 walks, 21 strikeouts, 2.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

    Bailey allowed a ton fewer hits (5.86 per 9 innings compared to 9 per 9 innings for Cueto), a ton fewer HR (0.46/9 compared to 0.81/9) and had a lower WHIP. Cueto ran with the much better walk rate and a slightly better strikeout rate.

    Personally the biggest things each guy has over the other is Baileys ridiculously lower hit rate and Cuetos much better walk rate. I like the guy allowing more than 3 fewer hits per game myself.....

  9. #23
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    either way I make sure both Pitch at some time in the bigs next year!
    2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing

    Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

  10. #24
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes, lets use Baileys what, 8 inning REHAB numbers in A+ this year.... Lets also use Homers injured innings in AAA too.

    Lets look at what Bailey did pre MLB call up in AAA this year.
    58.1 innings, 38 hits, 3 HR, 24 walks, 51 strikeouts, 2.31 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

    Cueto went 22 innings, 22 hits, 2 HR, 2 walks, 21 strikeouts, 2.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

    Bailey allowed a ton fewer hits (5.86 per 9 innings compared to 9 per 9 innings for Cueto), a ton fewer HR (0.46/9 compared to 0.81/9) and had a lower WHIP. Cueto ran with the much better walk rate and a slightly better strikeout rate.

    Personally the biggest things each guy has over the other is Baileys ridiculously lower hit rate and Cuetos much better walk rate. I like the guy allowing more than 3 fewer hits per game myself.....
    I prefer the guys that won't walk the two guys in front of Pujols myself.

    That isn't a ton fewer HR's. Bailey allowed .51 HR/9 in his minor league career. Cueto has allowed .62 HR/9. Source is baseball cube. Bailey allowed a TON more walks, twice as many per 9 innings. And that is a very telling stat illustrating the difference between the two pitchers at this stage of their development. Also note that Cueto has managed more minor league innings despite his first year starting in the short season GCL. This doesn't include winter ball. Cueto has steadily been able to increase his workload without sacrificing command. Bailey has not been able to harness anything resembling command yet.

    Bailey has the advantage of 45 innings with the Reds, but Cueto has had the better overall minor league numbers. He just might be the better prospect.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #25
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Its nice to have both isn't it. I just hope when Cueto comes up to the bigs and struggles a little people don't jump off his bandwagon like they did Bailey's.

  12. #26
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Hey, I'm still on the Tyler Pelland bandwagon. I was never 100% on Homer's though.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #27
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I prefer the guys that won't walk the two guys in front of Pujols myself.

    That isn't a ton fewer HR's. Bailey allowed .51 HR/9 in his minor league career. Cueto has allowed .62 HR/9. Source is baseball cube. Bailey allowed a TON more walks, twice as many per 9 innings. And that is a very telling stat illustrating the difference between the two pitchers at this stage of their development. Also note that Cueto has managed more minor league innings despite his first year starting in the short season GCL. This doesn't include winter ball. Cueto has steadily been able to increase his workload without sacrificing command. Bailey has not been able to harness anything resembling command yet.

    Bailey has the advantage of 45 innings with the Reds, but Cueto has had the better overall minor league numbers. He just might be the better prospect.
    Its all a matter of what you like I guess. I just feel that Homer's command is going to improve and given his hit rates all the way up the ladder, when that happens he is going to be very, very good. Don't get me wrong, I love Cueto, but I just don't see him having batters struggle as much with his stuff. As far as the numbers in the minor leagues go, it is a little more difficult to compare them in the sense that Homer had different things to deal with than Cueto. He had the piggy back pitching system while he was in Dayton. Then he was also a year younger along the way than Cueto for every comparison and that makes it a little different when comparing numbers as well.

  14. #28
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Cueto and it's probably not even close. His command is significantly better and frankly he probably could be a high leverage arm for the Reds bullpen in '08.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #29
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes, lets use Baileys what, 8 inning REHAB numbers in A+ this year.... Lets also use Homers injured innings in AAA too.

    Lets look at what Bailey did pre MLB call up in AAA this year.
    58.1 innings, 38 hits, 3 HR, 24 walks, 51 strikeouts, 2.31 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

    Cueto went 22 innings, 22 hits, 2 HR, 2 walks, 21 strikeouts, 2.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

    Bailey allowed a ton fewer hits (5.86 per 9 innings compared to 9 per 9 innings for Cueto), a ton fewer HR (0.46/9 compared to 0.81/9) and had a lower WHIP. Cueto ran with the much better walk rate and a slightly better strikeout rate.

    Personally the biggest things each guy has over the other is Baileys ridiculously lower hit rate and Cuetos much better walk rate. I like the guy allowing more than 3 fewer hits per game myself.....
    I know the innings made them impossible to compare them fairly, but still in A+ and AAA, Cueto was better

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by mlbfan30 View Post
    I know the innings made them impossible to compare them fairly, but still in A+ and AAA, Cueto was better
    A+ this year? Because if you are going to use it, then we need to stop having this conversation. Bailey pitched 8 innings of REHAB in Sarasota this year. To use those numbers in a cmoparison is beyond silly.


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