The answer is easy - Bailey. If Cueto was ready, he would have been brought up to the Reds. Its not like the Reds were loaded with effective starters at the end of last year, remember?
Cueto has better control than Bailey but he throws a lot of high strikes. He has to work on that weakness or he will get shelled in the majors. Bailey's control at the majors was substandard, but he keeps the ball down. He made a lot of improvement with his curveball and he developed a cutter in 2007 but his changeup is poor and that is his weakness.
I hope they both commit to off-season work and show up equally ready to make the majors in spring training.
What stats are you comparing, Bailey was totally dominant 2 years ago in AA ball. He has awesome stuff and is only 21. It is really hard to say who is best but BB America had Bailey rated right at the top last year. I hope we are having this discussion about who is the best for years to come!
Code:IP ERA H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WHIP Bailey 68.0 1.59 6.62 10.19 3.71 0.13 1.15 Cueto 61.0 3.10 7.67 11.36 1.62 0.89 1.03
Bailey's BB/9 went up to 4.28 in Louisville (Cueto's down to 0.82 in AAA) and all the way to 5.56 for the Reds. He'll absolutely have to lower those numbers if he wants to be a successful major league SP. He's only 21, so there's still time left. For another comparison, Aaron Harang has ranged between 2.17 through 2.02 since 2005. TRF summed in up really well in the first post, Cueto has definitely shown he's almost there. Good thing for the Reds is they both have more raw talent than any SP on the roster save Harang.
Lets also note that Bailey in AA was 20 and Cueto in AA was 21.
Let's Compare 2007... Cueto vs. Bailey
In A+ ` ERA 3.33 WHIP 1.19 / 10.13 2.50
In AAA ` ERA 2.05 WHIP 1.09 / 3.07 1.20
Same age, same levels, and guess who's better?
Lets look at what Bailey did pre MLB call up in AAA this year.
58.1 innings, 38 hits, 3 HR, 24 walks, 51 strikeouts, 2.31 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Cueto went 22 innings, 22 hits, 2 HR, 2 walks, 21 strikeouts, 2.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Bailey allowed a ton fewer hits (5.86 per 9 innings compared to 9 per 9 innings for Cueto), a ton fewer HR (0.46/9 compared to 0.81/9) and had a lower WHIP. Cueto ran with the much better walk rate and a slightly better strikeout rate.
Personally the biggest things each guy has over the other is Baileys ridiculously lower hit rate and Cuetos much better walk rate. I like the guy allowing more than 3 fewer hits per game myself.....
either way I make sure both Pitch at some time in the bigs next year!
2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing
Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.
That isn't a ton fewer HR's. Bailey allowed .51 HR/9 in his minor league career. Cueto has allowed .62 HR/9. Source is baseball cube. Bailey allowed a TON more walks, twice as many per 9 innings. And that is a very telling stat illustrating the difference between the two pitchers at this stage of their development. Also note that Cueto has managed more minor league innings despite his first year starting in the short season GCL. This doesn't include winter ball. Cueto has steadily been able to increase his workload without sacrificing command. Bailey has not been able to harness anything resembling command yet.
Bailey has the advantage of 45 innings with the Reds, but Cueto has had the better overall minor league numbers. He just might be the better prospect.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
Its nice to have both isn't it. I just hope when Cueto comes up to the bigs and struggles a little people don't jump off his bandwagon like they did Bailey's.
Hey, I'm still on the Tyler Pelland bandwagon. I was never 100% on Homer's though.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
Cueto and it's probably not even close. His command is significantly better and frankly he probably could be a high leverage arm for the Reds bullpen in '08.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner