Who is more ready?

[kentjett]

I've watched Cueto pitch while at Dayton and his curve doesn't have near as much break as Bailey's and his fastball is 3-4 mph off. Cueto is a lot better pitcher when it comes to placement and knowing the game but if you judge them by stuff alone, Cueto isn't in Homers league. Cueto could eventually be a #1 but I think he is more like a #2 or #3 starter. I just don't see him being that player to build a team around but a nice piece to add to the puzzle. I do believe that if they are both healthy that they are both better right now than anybody on the reds not named Harang or Arroyo.

[OnBaseMachine]

Cueto doesn't throw a curveball. He throws a fastball, slider, and changeup. His slider is described as being quite nasty.

[Superdude]

His fastball was back up to mid to high 90's when he returned and his #'s were better.

When was his fastball ever high 90's? 95-96 tops when I saw him.

[kentjett]

I read numerous reports of his fastball touching 98 mph and consistently reaching 94-95 mph. I just think Homers potential exceeds Cueto, Cueto is a safer bet but I don't think he is a power pitcher like Homer. When I watched Homer, he was around 92-95 on a regular basis and Cueto was throwing between 88-92.

[OnBaseMachine]

Cueto changes speeds a lot. According to BA, he regularly hits 93-94 and can dial it up to 96 or 97 when he needs to.

[dougdirt]

When was his fastball ever high 90's? 95-96 tops when I saw him.

Bailey hit 95 MPH or higher 40 times out of 172 fastballs.

[dougdirt]

Cueto changes speeds a lot. According to BA, he regularly hits 93-94 and can dial it up to 96 or 97 when he needs to.

Cueto sits 89-94 but can dial it up when he really needs to from what I have seen and heard about him. He tends to stay low the first time through the line ups, then dials it up the second go around.

[SteelSD]

Bailey hit 95 MPH or higher 40 times out of 172 fastballs.

Homer Bailey threw 815 MLB pitches in 2007. If the data you're using shows that only 172 of those were fastballs, then said data is completely worthless.

[dougdirt]

Homer Bailey threw 815 MLB pitches in 2007. If the data you're using shows that only 172 of those were fastballs, then said data is completely worthless.

No, I guess I should have stated he threw 40 FB's that hard out of 172 FB's thrown while pitching in parks with the pitch f/x system set up. That works out to about half of his starts.

[jojo]

Homer Bailey threw 815 MLB pitches in 2007. If the data you're using shows that only 172 of those were fastballs, then said data is completely worthless.

The f/x data for Homer is only a sample of his entire season (356 pitches) but it suggests homer threw his fastball about 70% of the time. Out of the 246 fastballs he threw in f/x parks, 95 were called balls and 10 resulted in hits suggesting 57% of them were either strikes (called/swinging/foul tip) or put into play for outs (40; 16%).

Obviously the results could be effected by sample size/park but I think the 70% fastball tendency agrees with my eyes.

[dougdirt]

The f/x data for Homer is only a sample of his entire season but it suggests homer threw his fastball about 70% of the time. Out of the 246 fastballs he threw in f/x parks, 95 were called balls and 10 resulted in hits suggesting 57% of them were either strikes (called/swinging/foul tip) or put into play for outs (40; 16%).

Obviously the results could be effected by sample size/park but I think the 70% fastball tendency agrees with my eyes.

Bailey needs to have a little more control of his fastball for sure. From what I recall though I think he threw his fastball 67% of the time last year according to the data. That is a lot, but not out of line for power pitcher types (Lincecum was at 70%, Beckett was at 66% for example).

[SteelSD]

There aren't that many power pitchers with sub 3.00 walk rates.... You are picking out two of the better controled pitchers in all of baseball to make a comparison.

Carlos Zambrano walked 101 in 216 last year..... would you put him in AAA too?

Of the 18 MLB pitchers who posted at least 150 IP with a K/9 rate above 8.00, ten (56%) posted BB/9 rates less than 3.00. Only one of those pitchers posted a BB/9 rate higher than 4.00. Had Carlos Zambrano's K/9 rate qualifiied, that would make it two. It's not Caveat who's positioning the outliers here.

While it's possible that Bailey could produce a combination of an 8.00+ K/9 rate and a < 4.00 BB rate, he didn't do it at any level last season. Projecting such at the MLB level in 2008 is pretty aggressive. If he doesn't produce those rates and ends up tossing 17 to 18 pitches per Inning, we need to remember that he doesn't have the kind of workload history that would project well.

[SteelSD]

The f/x data for Homer is only a sample of his entire season (356 pitches) but it suggests homer threw his fastball about 70% of the time. Out of the 246 fastballs he threw in f/x parks, 95 were called balls and 10 resulted in hits suggesting 57% of them were either strikes (called/swinging/foul tip) or put into play for outs (40; 16%).

Obviously the results could be effected by sample size/park but I think the 70% fastball tendency agrees with my eyes.

While I appreciate the info, if the data doesn't track all pitches thrown then I have no interest in it.

[dougdirt]

While I appreciate the info, if the data doesn't track all pitches thrown then I have no interest in it.

So you think every players pitch f/x data from this year is basically useless?

[jojo]

While I appreciate the info, if the data doesn't track all pitches thrown then I have no interest in it.

Next year every park should be f/x equipped.