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Thread: Who is more ready?

  1. #91
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I guess so.... although they both are going to spend next year at the ripe old age of 22 (although Bailey starts the year at age 21 and theoretically could have 4 or 5 starts under his belt by the time he turns 22).
    It doesn't change the fact that Bailey was legitimately awful last year.

    He's certainly got lots of time to figure it out, but right now he's completely hype and no substance.
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  3. #92
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    It doesn't change the fact that Bailey was legitimately awful last year.

    He's certainly got lots of time to figure it out, but right now he's completely hype and no substance.
    Eh, regardless of what I think about his pitching 'hurt' and how he pitched when 'healthy', he pitched pretty well in specific games last year at the major league level, no? I would say that certainly gives him some semblence of substance wouldn't it? Hype doesn't come off to me that way.

  4. #93
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    It doesn't change the fact that Bailey was legitimately awful last year.

    He's certainly got lots of time to figure it out, but right now he's completely stuff and no command.
    I edited that because I think "the stuff" is substance that gives him significant value at his age (i.e. homer is a legit prospect because there is a tangible skill set there). This of course all changes if he fails to develop command as he ages or if he develops arm problems. He's probably getting close to the put up or shut up age if he's going to continue to be considered an elite prospect but certainly I think it's too early right now to lose patience.

    I guess I view language like "hype" to be pejorative in the sense that it's misleading concerning Homer's current value. He's a consensus elite pitching prospect due to his projectable frame/mechanics coupled with his two plus pitches. In any event I don't think the Reds have mounted a campaign suggesting Homer is a sure thing-he's just one of the better pitching prospects they've had in a long time and he came along during a period when their farm really needed some good news.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #94
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Really the appropriate sample size is determined by the question you want to ask (i.e. what you're trying to measure and the magnitude of the effect you're trying to detect) and the variation in the data.

    While more is always better, 43% of Homer's pitches in '07 is probably large enough to determine his overall pitch tendencies for the season (i.e. those 356 pitches are representative of his 815), get an idea of his stuff looked (velocity/break), and probably get an idea how he attacked lefties vs righties.
    43% of Homer Bailey's pitches tell us nothing other than what Homer Bailey did during those particular 356 pitches. It's not large enough to project anything. In fact, it's around 13% of the pitches thrown by the MLB ERA qualifier who tossed the least pitches in 2007 (Josh Fogg).

    Considering the size of the sample, we can't pretend to know the first thing about what Homer Bailey actually did during 2007 even if the data was 100% reliable. It's akin to using a sample size of 60 PA to figure out a hitter's behavior if he played a full season.

    That said, there are certainly questions that these data couldn't inform.
    You think?
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  6. #95
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    43% of Homer Bailey's pitches tell us nothing other than what Homer Bailey did during those particular 356 pitches. It's not large enough to project anything. In fact, it's around 13% of the pitches thrown by the MLB ERA qualifier who tossed the least pitches in 2007 (Josh Fogg).

    Considering the size of the sample, we can't pretend to know the first thing about what Homer Bailey actually did during 2007 even if the data was 100% reliable. It's akin to using a sample size of 60 PA to figure out a hitter's behavior if he played a full season.



    You think?
    I think you're really overstating the case from a statistical standpoint. It's pretty likely that 43% of Homer's pitches are enough to inform the other 459.

    It's actually akin to using roughly 1600 pitches to estimate how Harang did across his whole 3500...

    BTW, I haven't used Homer's f/x data to project any future performance.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #96
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think you're really overstating the case from a statistical standpoint. It's pretty likely that 43% of Homer's pitches are enough to inform the other 459.

    It's actually akin to using roughly 1600 pitches to estimate how Harang did across his whole 3500...

    BTW, I haven't used Homer's f/x data to project any future performance.
    While you've wisely avoided the trap of using those 356 pitches to project future 2008-and-on performance, you are using them to project how Bailey likely did over the remainder of his sample. That's still a projection and it's a projection derived from 3-4 games worth of data.

    Unless someone can give me the exact games from which the 356 pitches were tracked, it's a sudoku-like puzzle. Using the espn.com game logs, the only combination of games equalling 356 pitches include:

    Sept 25th: 94 Pitches (@GAB)
    Sept 20th: 80 Pitches (@SF)
    July 7th: 89 Pitches (@GAB)
    June 19th: 93 Pitches (@OAK)

    Maybe I'm missing something, but that really is the only combination of games I can get to add up. They also happen to be Bailey's best games of the 2007 season. If those are the games being tracked, we're missing a lot- like the combined 139 pitches from June 26th and July 1st where Bailey wasn't able to put the ball over the plate half the time.

    I'd suggest there's likely more wrong with that data than you think, jojo. There's a good chance that the data includes only behavior from the best of Homer Bailey.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  8. #97
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    Re: Who is more ready?

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  9. #98
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Why would I have any interest in data that tracks less than half of a player's behavior?
    Because, given a big enough sample and an assumption of randomness, half is usually plenty to infer enough to make the point. Not saying we have enough data on Homer, but in terms of pitch selection, I imagine 4 or 5 starts gets you with a few points of the true percentages. As far as performance goes, I would hope we can all agree that we're woefully short of any amount of data at the major league level to draw assumptions, particularly given the injury effect.

    I think the real point which should be stated is that Bailey doesn't need to be over 8 K/9 and under 4 BB/9 to be an upgrade to the Reds rotation in 2008. Bailey could utterly fail to meet Doug's expectations and still be a valuable member of the Reds rotation in 2008.

    A line of 160 IP, 150 H (8.4 H/9), 80 BB (4.5 BB/9), 125 K (7.0 K/9), 15 HR (0.84 HR/9) gives us a FIP of 4.36 -- and that's ballowing a higher HR/9 than he ever has before. Stir in some Reds defense and some GABP and you're looking at something like a 4.6-4.7 ERA.

    FIP formula: FIP = 3.20 + ((13*HR + 3*BB - 2*SO) / IP)

    Most people would be quite happy with that, and that doesn't require any outlying assumptions.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-17-2007 at 03:05 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #99
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    While you've wisely avoided the trap of using those 356 pitches to project future 2008-and-on performance, you are using them to project how Bailey likely did over the remainder of his sample. That's still a projection and it's a projection derived from 3-4 games worth of data.

    Unless someone can give me the exact games from which the 356 pitches were tracked, it's a sudoku-like puzzle. Using the espn.com game logs, the only combination of games equalling 356 pitches include:

    Sept 25th: 94 Pitches (@GAB)
    Sept 20th: 80 Pitches (@SF)
    July 7th: 89 Pitches (@GAB)
    June 19th: 93 Pitches (@OAK)

    Maybe I'm missing something, but that really is the only combination of games I can get to add up. They also happen to be Bailey's best games of the 2007 season. If those are the games being tracked, we're missing a lot- like the combined 139 pitches from June 26th and July 1st where Bailey wasn't able to put the ball over the plate half the time.

    I'd suggest there's likely more wrong with that data than you think, jojo. There's a good chance that the data includes only behavior from the best of Homer Bailey.
    Here's the games comprising Homer's f/x data:
    6/19, 9/20, 9/25, and 9/30.....

    The pitch totals wont match up exactly because f/x sometimes throws up a blank on a pitch etc.

    While it's true that Homer's era is much better in the f/x games (3.20) vs. his non-f/x games (6.20) because the f/x data doesn't included his two worst starts (Philly and St Louis), his strike percentage (61% vs 58%), Krate (16% vs 15%) and walk rate (11% vs 13%) were all very similar between the two samples. So really the samples aren't nearly as divergent when examining Homer's rate stats as his ERA for the samples might suggest.

    Just for fun, if you ignore the 5 innings (and 13 ER) spanning his consecutive starts in Philly and St Louis, Homer's overall numbers are remarkably similar to the f/x sample (ERA: 3.75; Strike%=60; Krate: 15%; BBrate: 12%).

    My guess is that the f/x data captured Homer's performance pretty well for '07.
    Last edited by jojo; 12-17-2007 at 03:34 PM.
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  11. #100
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I am going to assume that the pitch f/x data represents the population without bias, so therefore I'm calling it random (even though it is not trully random)...
    It's not random at all; it's a convenience sample. Thankfully, next year we'll be able to look at populations of pitch data and report parameter values rather than statistics.

    I'm interested in what these data show, but quite hesitant to draw generalizations from a sample that is (1) far from random and (2) could be quite skewed because of the relatively small n involved here.

  12. #101
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's the games comprising Homer's f/x data:

    6/19, 9/20, 9/25, and 9/30.....
    Well, I was close.

    The pitch totals wont match up exactly because f/x sometimes throws up a blank on a pitch etc.
    That's soothing. Not trying to be snarky. It's just that glitches like that don't make me feel all warm and fuzzy.

    While it's true that Homer's era is much better in the f/x games (3.20) vs. his non-f/x games (6.20) because the f/x data doesn't included his two worst starts (Philly and St Louis), his strike percentage (61% vs 58%), Krate (16% vs 15%) and walk rate (11% vs 13%) were all very similar between the two samples. So really the samples aren't nearly as divergent when examining Homer's rate stats as his ERA for the samples might suggest.
    So if the second sample isn't included in the f/x data, where'd you get it?

    Just for fun, if you ignore the 5 innings (and 13 ER) spanning his consecutive starts in Philly and St Louis, Homer's overall numbers are remarkably similar to the f/x sample (ERA: 3.75; Strike%=60; Krate: 15%; BBrate: 12%).

    My guess is that the f/x data captured Homer's performance pretty well for '07.[/QUOTE]

    Unfortunately, we can't ignore those two starts.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
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  13. #102
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    I don't know why this caught my eye, but it did. Two Reds players, both "power" pitchers with good stuff. Both with a late-season set of games that everyone attempts to project forward on.

    Numbers look quite similar, other than the ERA on Pitcher A, which is quite low despite the peripherals.

    Code:
     Player          W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
     PITCHER A        4   2   9   9   0   0   0  0   48.3   36   16   13   3   25   38   2   5   204   1   0  2.42  4.27  176 1.262
     PITCHER B        4   2   9   9   0   0   0  0   45.3   43   32   29   3   28   28   3   1   205   1   1  5.76  4.66   81 1.566
    Pitcher A: Luke Hudson
    Pitcher B: Homer Bailey

    Like I said, I don't know that it means anything, just found it a little interesting.
    Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 12-17-2007 at 10:47 PM.
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  14. #103
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I don't know why this caught my eye, but it did. Two Reds players, both "power" pitchers with good stuff. Both with a late-season set of games that everyone attempts to project forward on.

    Numbers look quite similar, other than the ERA on Pitcher A, which is quite low despite the peripherals.

    Code:
     Player          W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
     PITCHER A        4   2   9   9   0   0   0  0   48.3   36   16   13   3   25   38   2   5   204   1   0  2.42  4.27  176 1.262
     PITCHER B        4   2   9   9   0   0   0  0   45.3   43   32   29   3   28   28   3   1   205   1   1  5.76  4.66   81 1.566
    Pitcher A: Luke Hudson
    Pitcher B: Homer Bailey

    Like I said, I don't know that it means anything, just found it a little interesting.
    It means little considering that Bailey was 6 years younger when those two seasons happened, and regardless of what some people want to say had nothing to do with Bailey's performance (despite the fact that his obvious bad games all came directly after this happened before he went on the dl), he also pitched hurt for 3 of those games. Even if you want to toss that last part out, Hudson was 27 when that happened. Bailey wont turn 27 until May of the 2013 season.

  15. #104
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think the real point which should be stated is that Bailey doesn't need to be over 8 K/9 and under 4 BB/9 to be an upgrade to the Reds rotation in 2008. Bailey could utterly fail to meet Doug's expectations and still be a valuable member of the Reds rotation in 2008.
    While I appreciate the rest of your post, I felt it was most important to address this point. I actually agree that Homer Bailey doesn't have to hit a 8.00 K/9 and a sub-4.00 BB/9 rate to be of help. My concern has always been that a projection of performance of 8.00+ K/9 and sub-4.00 BB/9 is, IMHO, far too aggressive considering Bailey's historical performance.

    My second concern is that I've seen a lot of analysis/opinion over the last few months using our new data toy de' jour. One day it's specious RZR data from THT, the next day it's theoretical xFIP, then we switch to dubious run valuations drawn from our earlier fixation on said specious RZR data, and when we're bored with that we dive into not-yet-properly-vetted pitch f/x data, throwing it around as if we were kids in a sandbox.

    As an aside, I honestly can't believe I'm the first person who noted that the folks pushing RZR don't understand how normal Zone Rating is calculated during their denouncements of the metric latter metric. That boggles my mind. Well, that's not entirely true. Dave Studeman was involved, after all. Agh! My brain almost got my hands to start typing "WPA". Darnit. I did type "WPA". Twice. Dang it. End digression...

    I know that sometimes we're able to work through data validity, relevance, and methodology concerns while discussing a player when data is being used, but that seems so cart-before-horse to me. I'll apologize in advance if I missed something (and I can), but I shouldn't have to find out in this thread after much discussion, and after the data has already been thrown around in multiple threads, that only 43% of Homer Bailey's season was tracked (excluding his worst performances). Of course, we can't be sure that 43% was actually tracked, because sometimes the f/x system just fires blanks. I do, however appreciate the fact that jojo did proactively note the latter item.

    Call me attentive to detail, I guess, but when I first learned of something called "Zone Rating" I spent a couple of days looking at it from every angle while asking all the questions I knew would be asked of me should I use it in a public player analysis. Runs Created? I broke that sucker down to actual component valuations prior to speaking of it. I run correlation studies on pretty much everything and turn formulas (when available) upside down and inside out. Heck, a couple times I received emails from Microsoft noting that my Excel program filed a former complaint citing owner abuse.

    Sorry for the rant, Rick. It's not directed at you. In fact, I think you do things the right way, as demonstrated by your discussion-first approach on RZR-driven defense run valuation. I just feel like I've recently spent far too much time pointing out data or methodology issues that should be apparent to the poster prior to analysis, and certainly before posting conclusions based on said data.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  16. #105
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    Re: Who is more ready?

    It's amazing how behind some of you could be at math. 40% of a sample size is enough data to notice tendencies of that pitcher. All if is is a fraction of the total, but the composition of that fraction would be roughly the same no matter how large of the sample size. You don't need pitches from every start to get the general idea of the way he throws. It's not like he would go from 70% fastballs to 55% fastballs in 1 year. It just doesn't happen. The range of error increases with a smaller sample size, but the 400 or so pitches is enough data to get a range of +- 2% I would say. That's the difference of throwing 68 or 72 fastballs per 100 pitches, which when you think about it is faily significant over a full season. But say if every type of pitch was +-3%, that is still enough info to find out the general idea of what he throws. Speed would probably have a smaller range of error.
    Sample size is important, but the context matters a lot. 80 IP is generally (2.5 months) enough to see how good a pitcher is. You would most likely expect similar peripherals for each 80 IP increment of a pitcher say over 1 year. That's also 40%


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