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Thread: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

  1. #61
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    And time to cash that hype in, IMO.
    I know I'll never get you to agree with that, but I see a compelling analogy to the Stillwell - Jackson trade that was done.

    The experts say Bruce's best comp is Larry Walker. Walker was an awesome player, but if I'm the Reds, I trade Larry WAlker for a stud pitcher.
    Stillwell wasn't the type of prospect Bruce was though, and that is just the first issue we are dealing with. As far as trading Walker for a stud pitcher.... yeah, sure. But do you trade 6 years of Walker for 2 or 3 of a stud pitcher? You already know my answer.

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Phillips is..Jrs arguable.

    You don't build a franchise around Junior at this point in his career...you do around guys like Harang and Phillips....

    I think Bruce will fit into that category once he gets his shot...and I think the Reds are counting on him being THAT GUY, which is why he's not going anywhere.
    Last edited by Matt700wlw; 12-13-2007 at 06:34 PM.

  4. #63
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    Harang's a core player; Philips is arguable.
    Phillips was easily the Reds most valuable position player last year.... how is he 'arguable' in terms of being a core player?

  5. #64
    On the brink of disaster acredsfan's Avatar
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    There is only one way to look at it. You trade Bruce now if your philosophy is win now. You keep Bruce if your philosophy is win in the future and keep winning. We can't sell the farm every year to keep competing, so why start now. Gradually build your team for an intermediate approach. Why just play for one year like Florida and Arizona? We are small market as so many have been quick to point out, so which is the better way to go about it? One year of prospective greatness followed by 5 or more of rebuilding or shoot for a longer time on top like the Braves?

    Say we trade Bruce and get Bedard or Haren. If they get injured along with some other core players and we lose out big this year, how does not having Bruce look? Buying these players with our future talent or money doesn't guarantee anything, just ask the Yankees. It gives us a better shot, sure, but it's far from guaranteed. Look at what the Cubs are doing. They are losing their minds. Why would you rather have a 2-3 year window of competing when you can control the Bruce's, Cueto's, and Bailey's for 6 years? Yeah, they may not all live up to the hype, but the same could happen with Bedard and Haren.

    Pitching is a funny thing. Very few pitchers dominate for an extended period of time. Nobody can predict what will happen, but I find it hard to condone trading a farm system that took so long to build up. I don't want to be the team that people look at in 5 years and say what were they thinking trading this once in a generation talent. Bruce could be that player, or he could be Austin Kearns. I don't care, I don't trade him until he proves he isn't a great player, which he hasn't.
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    if I'm the Reds, I trade Larry WAlker for a stud pitcher.
    you'll have time to do that in the future. once you trade him, you never get him back

    for now, let's see just what he is. It's not like he's superfluous. He supposedly defends, which we really need.

  7. #66
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The experts say Bruce's best comp is Larry Walker. Walker was an awesome player, but if I'm the Reds, I trade Larry WAlker for a stud pitcher.
    The consistently under-appreciated point of this is the years; 6 years of a cheap Larry Walker for 2 years of that stud pitcher. That's where the calculus changes. And it wouldn't be Bruce for Bedard. It'd still be Bruce and significant change for Bedard. That's where it gets ugly.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #67
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    Harang's a core player; Philips is arguable.
    What's there to argue about? I'm curious why Hamilton is a core guy in your mind, but Phillips isn't.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  9. #68
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The consistently under-appreciated point of this is the years; 6 years of a cheap Larry Walker for 2 years of that stud pitcher. That's where the calculus changes. And it wouldn't be Bruce for Bedard. It'd still be Bruce and significant change for Bedard. That's where it gets ugly.
    But it's not 6 cheap years. If Bruce comes up and tears the cover off the ball as you expect him to, he's going to arb in 2-3 years and then getting very pricey.

    So, it's 2-3 cheap years. The rest of the 6 are less than FA, but not really cheap. Contrast that to a guy like Haren who is not dirt cheap but is a relative bargain in the arb years.

    Not to mention, it's easier to find passable OF than passable SP.

    I have no idea about what (if anything) it would take beyond Bruce to get Bedard in the real world.
    I'm examining the hypothetical here. Many say they would not do Bruce for Bedard, straight up.

    I agree that if Balt asks for the big 4 prospects plus Harang and Philips.. then that is too pricey.
    Obviously, I am exaggerating to make a point that I'm not saying we should get Bedard at any cost. But Bruce alone would not stop me.
    Last edited by REDREAD; 12-13-2007 at 06:38 PM.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  10. #69
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    But it's not 6 cheap years. If Bruce comes up and tears the cover off the ball as you expect him to, he's going to arb in 2-3 years and then getting very pricey.

    So, it's 2-3 cheap years. The rest of the 6 are less than FA, but not really cheap. Contrast that to a guy like Haren who is not dirt cheap but is a relative bargain in the arb years.

    Not to mention, it's easier to find passable OF than passable SP.
    And how did Haren get so cheap? By buying out his arb years. If Bruce comes up and tears it up, you know that same thing will happen with him too.

  11. #70
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Secondly, take a look at his peripherals. 2007 wasn't nearly as bad as you might think. He would most likely be the best starting pitcher on the Reds 2008 roster not named Harang or Arroyo.
    2007 Chris Capuano was only marginally better than Matt Belisle.

    Code:
     Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
     2007 27 CIN NL   8   9  30  30   1   0   0  0  177.7  212  111  105  26   43  125   7   6   771   4   1  5.32  4.66   88 1.435
     2007 28 MIL NL   5  12  29  25   0   0   0  0  150.0  170   93   85  20   54  132   8  10   669   2   0  5.10  4.48   88 1.493
    Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 12-13-2007 at 06:41 PM.
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    What's there to argue about? I'm curious why Hamilton is a core guy in your mind, but Phillips isn't.
    I think that it's a great time to trade Philips. I don't get that feeling about Hamilton. with him, there's a lot more there.

  13. #72
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    I think that it's a great time to trade Philips. I don't get that feeling about Hamilton. with him, there's a lot more there.
    You think Phillips has peaked whereas Hamilton is still on the upswing?

  14. #73
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    I think Hamilton is on the upswing...however, injuries and (god forbid) falling of the wagon could hinder that.

    Brandon Phillips, I think, is just getting stated.

  15. #74
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    I don't trade Bruce for Bedard. If that is a deal breaker, then its a no deal. There is really no current rationalization that I can think of to make that sort of deal.

  16. #75
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    Re: Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I don't trade Bruce for Bedard. If that is a deal breaker, then its a no deal. There is really no current rationalization that I can think of to make that sort of deal.
    The Yankees are not rushing to offer up Joba and the Red Sox aren't even including Bucholz for Santana. I hope the WK sticks to his guns on Bruce - even if it means they end up with an inferior starter.

    In his only fairly major deal ("The Trade") he panicked and didn't get the return that another more-experienced GM might have. I think that other GMs may think they can bluff him and he will blink.

    I don't blame them for trying to land Bruce, but if the reported packages are true of packages like Hamilton/Votto, Bailey/Cueto and a couple of projects along the lines of Stubbs, Lutz, etc that seems like a pretty fair offer.

    I mean, two top 50-type prospects and a couple of other solid guys - all of which you control for five or six years - for a couple of years of one very talented starter who has never thrown 200 innings in a season and is a moderate injury risk.

    Maybe one of the other guys blink and throw in a Chamberlain or Bucholz or other stud prospect for one of the pitchers that are rumored to be available, but I think it's just as likely that the Twin's or O's or A's know that there's plenty of time before ST and they're trying to sweat the buyers a bit.

    As the offseason goes on and February approaches, it would not surprise me to see at least a couple of GMs tell them selves, "Hey, they may not be offering their top prospect, but these other guys could sure fill some of the holes in my roster pretty nicely."
    Last edited by corkedbat; 12-14-2007 at 04:34 PM.


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