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Thread: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

  1. #16
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    I think it will be Waring....if he can make contact just a bit more frequently. He could hit 20 HR's in Dayton in the first half.

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  3. #17
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    Devin Mesoraco

    Not reall, but I had to throw his name out there. I think it will be Lotzkar and Frazier, similair to how Bruce and Bailey are. Basically interchangeable, Bailey was better last year, Bruce this year.
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    * Waring's power display @ Billings & in College was impressive, but I'd like to see how he handles pitching at a higher level (especially in terms of contact/plate discipline) to see where he falls between Bruce and Szmanski.

    * I think that 08 will be a huge season for both Stubbs and Francisco (one way or the other

    * As for the Top Prospect? I'd have to agree with Frazier as far as bats go and either Lotzkar or Roenicke (probably loses point for being a reliever, but could end up at the top)

    * Dark horses? I think Dorn just keeps getting better and Daryl Thompson comes on strong another year removed from injury (Ditto Travis Wood)

  5. #19
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    shocking pick doug.

    I'll go with Travis Wood. His fastball seems to be back where it was and IIRC he had the best changeup in the system.

    As for position players, I think it'll be Dorn.
    Uh yeah, Doug. I agree TRF, watch Dorn. He appears to be healthy after the shoulder mess, and has responded to every elevation. Remember, he skipped over low A Dayton, to high A Sarasota, and thrived when promoted to AA. That was like a 3 level jump in 1 year.....

  6. #20
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    I really think it could be Danny Dorn.

  7. #21
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    I see Todd Frazier coming quick. He may not end up at SS, but his bat was excellent last year and he's got a history of great plate discipline, extending back to his age-19 season at Rutgers. The selection of Frazier might be the best "value" draft pick made in a number of years by the Reds.

    I consider Brandon Waring to be a guy John Sickels undervalued. Waring's K rate scared Sickels enough to place Waring outside the top 20 (#21), yet Waring and Stubbs produced an almost identical K rate in Billings at age 21. I consider Sickels' reasoning for downgrading Waring to be specious at best. Yeah, Stubbs might have been considered a better defensive CF in 2006 than Waring was a 3B in 2007, but the difference in offensive performance at the same age and level was far more extreme in Waring's favor. Stubbs has a quality I like (high IsoD), but he's yet to manifest a power component and he didn't demonstrate enough of a speed element in 2007 to make up for it (a 60% SB rate in 2007).
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    Waring was not an early round draft pick and has not seen significant at-bats above Rookie ball. I think that is the entire reason he is ranked low, right or wrong.
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  9. #23
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    There are still good prospects outside the top-4. Roenicke is a little old put he'll be a closer one day. You still have Stubbs. If Maloney pitches well in AAA this year, I think he's a legitimate starter.

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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    I really think it could be Danny Dorn.
    That makes 3 of us. Time will tell..He's a hitter.

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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    I actually think it will be Stubbs, for whom I have, for some time, been predicting a breakout year. But here's a little different question, just to stir things up. If it's not a top pick of Krivsky's, should he be gone? Or, to think of it this way, how high does one of his picks have to be on one of the overall major league lists to save his job--assuming the Reds don't win the Central? Can we expect this new stud prospect--whoever he is--to be in the top 30by next year? top 50? Remember we fired both the GM's who brought in the "big 4." Doesn't Wayner's drafting have to be at least better than the fired GM's to keep his job?

  12. #26
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    Lotzkar, pitching is always at a premium.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  13. #27
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I actually think it will be Stubbs, for whom I have, for some time, been predicting a breakout year. But here's a little different question, just to stir things up. If it's not a top pick of Krivsky's, should he be gone? Or, to think of it this way, how high does one of his picks have to be on one of the overall major league lists to save his job--assuming the Reds don't win the Central? Can we expect this new stud prospect--whoever he is--to be in the top 30by next year? top 50? Remember we fired both the GM's who brought in the "big 4." Doesn't Wayner's drafting have to be at least better than the fired GM's to keep his job?
    Neither Johnny Cueto nor Joey Votto were stud prospects within their first two years of being signed. Even with Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce, it took a little time for people to be convinced they were the real deal. I think Wayne Krivsky deserves a little more time to have the same, high-end production. Besides, when it comes to the drafts during Krivsky's tenure, the praise comes from the depth that has been acquired--not so much the 'stud' prospects.

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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    The depth is only depth because it hasn't shown yet. My post raises a serious topic. What's the highest ceiling for next year of the very best prospect Krivsky will have drafted? Two years into O'Brien's drafts we had guys in the top 10 or 15 in all of baseball. It seems at this point that Krivsky's drafts are very unlikely to come even close to that.

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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    I think Lotzkar can become a top 10 overally prospect, but not next year. He really is comparable to Bailey in so many ways. Frazier, Stubbs, and Lotzkar could probably be top 50 prospect next year. Frazier would have a Votto like status as a low ceiling, high floor type player. Stubbs would be considered one of those toolsy great defensive players and could jump to the top 20 if he performs really well next year.

  16. #30
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    Re: One year from now, who will be the Reds top prospect when the Fab Four graduate?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    The depth is only depth because it hasn't shown yet. My post raises a serious topic. What's the highest ceiling for next year of the very best prospect Krivsky will have drafted? Two years into O'Brien's drafts we had guys in the top 10 or 15 in all of baseball. It seems at this point that Krivsky's drafts are very unlikely to come even close to that.
    I think Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs could both end up Top 10 prospects next year if things go right for them. I fully expect both Stubbs and Frazier to end next season in AA and have very good seasons.


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