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Thread: Scott Kazmir

  1. #1
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    Scott Kazmir

    I hope Krivsky is talking to the Rays about this guy. I would actually prefer him to Bedard. I seriously doubt MacPhail will back off of his demand for Bruce in a EB deal, especially if Adam Jones plus Jeff Clement is on the table in Seattle. As much as I would want to get Bedard, trading Bruce for 2 years of him is just stupid.

    Kazmir, on the other hand, would be under control with us for a lot longer than Bedard would. He also just happens to be 4 years younger with better K-numbers. Sure, his injury problems have been well documented, but none of his past injuries seem to be career-threatening. It probably wouldn't take Jay Bruce to bring him here, probably something more like a bat (Encarnacion) + some young pitching (Bailey) to get it done. He would fit perfectly into our rotation as a much-needed #2 starter. Let's say the deal looks like this:

    Homer Bailey, Edwin Encarnacion, Travis Wood, Josh Roenicke, and Janish/Valaika for Kazmir

    That gives us a rotation of:

    Harang
    Kazmir
    Arroyo
    Belisle
    FA/Cueto/Maloney

    With that kind of rotation added to the Cordero signing with our offense, and we'll take the NL Central with ease. Thoughts?
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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    I imagine the price would be much higher for Kazmir. I expect the Reds are talking to all teams about trading starting pitching, however.

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    I would prefer Kazmir to just about anybody honestly and as far as injuries go, the last three seasons he's started 32, 24, and 34 games. He's a strikeout pitcher extraordinare but can be a little wild and best of all he's not prone to the home run. If the Reds can get him instead of Bedard and give up less, then WK has done a hell of a job. They absolutely should go after him.

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    The day Scott Kazmir becomes a red is when I will be first in line for season tickets

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by VI_RedsFan View Post
    I hope Krivsky is talking to the Rays about this guy. I would actually prefer him to Bedard. I seriously doubt MacPhail will back off of his demand for Bruce in a EB deal, especially if Adam Jones plus Jeff Clement is on the table in Seattle. As much as I would want to get Bedard, trading Bruce for 2 years of him is just stupid.

    Kazmir, on the other hand, would be under control with us for a lot longer than Bedard would. He also just happens to be 4 years younger with better K-numbers. Sure, his injury problems have been well documented, but none of his past injuries seem to be career-threatening. It probably wouldn't take Jay Bruce to bring him here, probably something more like a bat (Encarnacion) + some young pitching (Bailey) to get it done. He would fit perfectly into our rotation as a much-needed #2 starter. Let's say the deal looks like this:

    Homer Bailey, Edwin Encarnacion, Travis Wood, Josh Roenicke, and Janish/Valaika for Kazmir

    That gives us a rotation of:

    Harang
    Kazmir
    Arroyo
    Belisle
    FA/Cueto/Maloney

    With that kind of rotation added to the Cordero signing with our offense, and we'll take the NL Central with ease. Thoughts?
    You honestly believe it wouldn't take Jay F'ing Bruce to get Kazmir? Carl Crawford will be gone shortly, Baldelli is as injury prone as KGJ circa 2001 and that leaves BJ Upton as the only real talent left in the OF...

    Code:
     Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
     2004 20 TBD AL   2   3   8   7   0   0   0  0   33.3   33   22   21   4   21   41   2   3   152   0   0  5.67  4.54   80 1.620
     2005 21 TBD AL  10   9  32  32   0   0   0  0  186.0  172   90   78  12  100  174  10   7   818   3   1  3.77  4.36  116 1.462 RoY-9
     2006 22 TBD AL  10   8  24  24   1   1   0  0  144.7  132   59   52  15   52  163   2   6   610   3   0  3.24  4.61  142 1.272 AS
     2007 23 TBD AL  13   9  34  34   0   0   0  0  206.7  196   91   80  18   89  239   7  10   887   1   0  3.48  4.52  130 1.379
    Kazmir averaged 1.15 K/IP in what is arguably the toughest offensive division in baseball. Throw in the fact he is a power throwing Lefthander who happens to turn 24 next month and you need a package including at LEAST Bruce.

    Kazmir boasts heat that tops out around 97 mph and regularly pitches in the mid-90s. He also has a great slider and emerging change-up.
    according to http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/ml.../Scott_Kazmir/

    I would rather have Kazmir than Santana at this point. (That argument is for another thread btw BUT I will battle anyone through modem lines if you want to get it started )

    For Kazmir you are looking at a MINIMUM of Bruce, Bailey, Maloney and a C prospect. Kazmir still has 2 years of arbitration ('08 and '09) and that will leave us with 2 years to work out a LTC. He should be our 1st target with Bedard as the fall out option. However with the recent trade for Matt Garza the Rays have put themselves into a position to compete in the coming years and may not be willing to trade away Kazmir. (who could very easily be the best pitcher in all of baseball by 2009.


    Kind of ticky tacky but why would the Rays be interested in EE? He is only a slight improvement over Iwamura and that in itself is worthy of its own debate.
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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Why would you trade Bruce, Bailey and someone else for 2 years of Kazmir? Bruce is not tradeable. With 6 years of cheap play ahead of him Bruce for Johan Santana is a bad decision for us as a team in our situation.

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by BucksandReds View Post
    Why would you trade Bruce, Bailey and someone else for 2 years of Kazmir? Bruce is not tradeable. With 6 years of cheap play ahead of him Bruce for Johan Santana is a bad decision for us as a team in our situation.

    "We do not have to visit a madhouse to find disordered minds; The SunDeck is the mental institution of the universe."

    -Johann von Goethe

    (I took a few liberties with the original quote )

    How about 6 cheap years of Howington, Gruler, Sardinha, and Larson for Scott Kazmir? Jay Bruce has proven absolutely nothing on the major league level. Kazmir on the other hand is a better pitcher than the beloved Harang and, its not even close.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post

    How about 6 cheap years of Howington, Gruler, Sardinha, and Larson for Scott Kazmir? Jay Bruce has proven absolutely nothing on the major league level. Kazmir on the other hand is a better pitcher than the beloved Harang and, its not even close.
    First, that is a very unfair comparison.. None of the guys you listed were ever in anyone's top 25 best prospects in the minors, while Bruce is universally considered the best prospect in all of baseball.

    Look at the past #1 best prospects. About the only one in recent history that did not become an All-Star is Josh Hamilton, and I think we know what happened to him.

    However, I agree that Kazmir is worth Bruce, but I doubt that the Rays would even accept Bruce and Bailey. I think it would take at least Bruce, Bailey, Cueto and one more good prospect to get Kazmir. The Rays don't want to trade him, but will if someone is willing to overpay.

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, that is a very unfair comparison.. None of the guys you listed were ever in anyone's top 25 best prospects in the minors, while Bruce is universally considered the best prospect in all of baseball.

    Look at the past #1 best prospects. About the only one in recent history that did not become an All-Star is Josh Hamilton, and I think we know what happened to him.

    However, I agree that Kazmir is worth Bruce, but I doubt that the Rays would even accept Bruce and Bailey. I think it would take at least Bruce, Bailey, Cueto and one more good prospect to get Kazmir. The Rays don't want to trade him, but will if someone is willing to overpay.
    * 1981 - Mike Marshall (1B)
    * 1982 - Ron Kittle (OF)
    * 1983 - Dwight Gooden (P)
    * 1984 - Mike Bielecki (P)
    * 1985 - José Canseco (OF
    * 1986 - Gregg Jefferies (SS)
    * 1987 - Gregg Jefferies (SS)
    * 1988 - Tom Gordon (P)
    * 1989 - Sandy Alomar (C)
    * 1990 - Frank Thomas (1B)
    * 1991 - Derek Bell (OF)
    * 1992 - Tim Salmon (OF)
    * 1993 - Manny Ramírez (OF)
    * 1994 - Derek Jeter (SS)
    * 1995 - Andruw Jones (OF)
    * 1996 - Andruw Jones (OF)
    * 1997 - Paul Konerko (1B)
    * 1998 - Eric Chavez (3B)
    * 1999 - Rick Ankiel (P)
    * 2000 - Jon Rauch (P)
    * 2001 - Josh Beckett (P)
    * 2002 - Rocco Baldelli (OF)
    * 2003 - Joe Mauer (C)
    * 2004 - Jeff Francis (P)
    * 2005 - Delmon Young (OF)
    * 2006 - Alex Gordon (3B)
    * 2007 - Jay Bruce (OF)

    While in VERY good company being the minor league player of the year is not a Guarantee that he will be a perennial all-star.

    Unless Kazmir is injured he will be a guarantee...

    Also I agree it will probably take more than what I proposed but that is what I expect it to take to get in the same ball park as the Rays
    Last edited by thatcoolguy_22; 12-17-2007 at 08:18 PM.
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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    * 1986 - Gregg Jefferies (SS)
    * 1987 - Gregg Jefferies (SS)
    * 1988 - Tom Gordon (P)
    * 1989 - Sandy Alomar (C)
    * 1990 - Frank Thomas (1B)
    * 1991 - Derek Bell (OF)
    * 1992 - Tim Salmon (OF)
    * 1993 - Manny Ramírez (OF)
    * 1994 - Derek Jeter (SS)
    * 1995 - Andruw Jones (OF)
    * 1996 - Andruw Jones (OF)
    * 1997 - Paul Konerko (1B)
    * 1998 - Eric Chavez (3B)
    * 1999 - Rick Ankiel (P)
    * 2000 - Jon Rauch (P)
    * 2001 - Josh Beckett (P)
    * 2002 - Rocco Baldelli (OF)
    * 2003 - Joe Mauer (C)
    * 2004 - Jeff Francis (P)
    * 2005 - Delmon Young (OF)
    * 2006 - Alex Gordon (3B)
    * 2007 - Jay Bruce (OF)

    While in VERY good company being the minor league player of the year is not a Guarantee that he will be a perennial all-star.

    Unless Kazmir is injured he will be a guarantee...

    Also I agree it will probably take more than what I proposed but that is what I expect it to take to get in the same ball park as the Rays
    Thanks for the list.

    But you made my point. The only guys who didn't become perennial All-Stars were the ones that got injured, (and Jon Rauch,who was a very strange choice that year).

    Would you trade a young Frank Thomas, or Tim Salmon, or Manny Ramírez, or Derek Jeter , or Andruw Jones, or Paul Konerko, or Eric Chavez, or Josh Beckett, plus Bailey, plus other top prospects for Kazmir?

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Thanks for the list.

    But you made my point. The only guys who didn't become perennial All-Stars were the ones that got injured, (and Jon Rauch,who was a very strange choice that year).

    Would you trade a young Frank Thomas, or Tim Salmon, or Manny Ramírez, or Derek Jeter , or Andruw Jones, or Paul Konerko, or Eric Chavez, or Josh Beckett, plus Bailey, plus other top prospects for Kazmir?

    How about a greg jeffries, mike marshall, derek bell, tim salmon, Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli or John Rauch as the center piece with a homer bailey + attachment? Most of these guys were very serviceable Major Leaguers but none were HOF type players. The majority of the list's indiviual success rate is incredibly high. However, most on this board believe it is a ticket into the HOF for a prospect to be called a young Larry Walker and named minor leaguer of the year

    Bruce has the talent (as does Bailey) but hasn't proven he can hit at the major league level (besides look at his K rate, I'm not entirely convinced on all of the hype surrounding him). Also this time last year there were people saying they wouldn't center a deal around Homer for Kazmir now look where he has fallen...

    Kazmir plays in the toughest division in baseball for any pitcher and still puts up remarkable numbers. Put Kazmir in the NL Central and watch him become one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball!
    Last edited by thatcoolguy_22; 12-17-2007 at 08:34 PM.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    All-Star Appearences....
    * 1986 - Gregg Jefferies (SS) - X
    * 1987 - Gregg Jefferies (SS) - 2
    * 1988 - Tom Gordon (P) - 3
    * 1989 - Sandy Alomar (C) - 6
    * 1990 - Frank Thomas (1B) - 5
    * 1991 - Derek Bell (OF) - 0
    * 1992 - Tim Salmon (OF) - 0
    * 1993 - Manny Ramírez (OF) - 11
    * 1994 - Derek Jeter (SS) - 8
    * 1995 - Andruw Jones (OF) - X
    * 1996 - Andruw Jones (OF) - 5
    * 1997 - Paul Konerko (1B) - 3
    * 1998 - Eric Chavez (3B) - 0
    * 1999 - Rick Ankiel (P) - 0
    * 2000 - Jon Rauch (P) - 0
    * 2001 - Josh Beckett (P) - 1
    * 2002 - Rocco Baldelli (OF) - 0
    * 2003 - Joe Mauer (C) - 1
    * 2004 - Jeff Francis (P) - 0
    * 2005 - Delmon Young (OF) - 0
    * 2006 - Alex Gordon (3B) - 0
    * 2007 - Jay Bruce (OF) -0

    Due to the fact they are younger, Since 2003 only 6 of the 16 players never made an all-star team. Looking at those who havn't are....

    Bell - 11 seasons, 2 100 RBI seasons, 99OPS+
    Salmon - 14 seasons, 300HR, .280/.385/.500 line, 128OPS+
    Chavez - 10 seasons, 6 GG, 117 OPS+
    Ankiel - 1 great season, you know the story
    Rauch - decent middle reliever, 3.74 ERA
    Baldelli - nice player but recently injury prone

    Notice that every single player on the list has made the major leagues, and there are possibly 5 HOF players. Odds are that Bruce will be an all-star for several years based on this list, and he will be an above average major league. You need to go back to 1991 (Bell) to find even an average position player.

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by mlbfan30 View Post

    Due to the fact they are younger, Since 2003 only 6 of the 16 players never made an all-star team. Looking at those who havn't are....

    Bell - 11 seasons, 2 100 RBI seasons, 99OPS+
    Salmon - 14 seasons, 300HR, .280/.385/.500 line, 128OPS+
    Chavez - 10 seasons, 6 GG, 117 OPS+
    Ankiel - 1 great season, you know the story
    Rauch - decent middle reliever, 3.74 ERA
    Baldelli - nice player but recently injury prone


    Notice that every single player on the list has made the major leagues, and there are possibly 5 HOF players. Odds are that Bruce will be an all-star for several years based on this list, and he will be an above average major league. You need to go back to 1991 (Bell) to find even an average position player.


    The point is being missed here...

    The success rate of these players is not being argued. It is insanely high but, unless it leads to a dominant player 100% of the time (which it doesn't btw) then there is room for doubt.

    This is really the age old debate of proven talent versus prospects with a new wrinkle being tossed in with the contract situations...
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    How about a greg jeffries, mike marshall, derek bell, tim salmon, Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli or John Rauch as the center piece with a homer bailey + attachment? Most of these guys were very serviceable Major Leaguers but none were HOF type players. The majority of the list's indiviual success rate is incredibly high. However, most on this board believe it is a ticket into the HOF for a prospect to be called a young Larry Walker and named minor leaguer of the year

    Bruce has the talent (as does Bailey) but hasn't proven he can hit at the major league level (besides look at his K rate, I'm not entirely convinced on all of the hype surrounding him). Also this time last year there were people saying they wouldn't center a deal around Homer for Kazmir now look where he has fallen...

    Kazmir plays in the toughest division in baseball for any pitcher and still puts up remarkable numbers. Put Kazmir in the NL Central and watch him become one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball!
    But are 3 years of kazmir worth more than 12 years of Bailey and Bruce. That would mean that Bailey + Bruce produce 1/4 less than Kazmir per year. The major knock on Bailey is his BB rate. Kazmir's BB rate is 4.13. His minors were 3.67. Bailey's minor BB/9 is 4.23. An extra walk every 18 IP. Kazmir is proven, but in Bailey is still a top 10 prospect in baseball and has potential to be a Kazmir type pitcher. Bruce will most likely provide an enormous amount of value. 6 Years of Bruce alone might be more than 3 years of Kazmir, but then adding more to this (Bailey) would make the Bruce/Bailey package have more value.

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    Re: Scott Kazmir

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    The point is being missed here...

    The success rate of these players is not being argued. It is insanely high but, unless it leads to a dominant player 100% of the time (which it doesn't btw) then there is room for doubt.

    This is really the age old debate of proven talent versus prospects with a new wrinkle being tossed in with the contract situations...
    Yea, if you have an average prospect.....
    THESE GUYS ARE TOP 10 PROSPECTS IN BASEBALL
    Bruce IS the best prospect, and Bailey is in the top 10. ALSO, BOTH have had very good sucess at AAA and are ML Ready. The Chance that both don't have some type of positive value is very low. Historicly, the top prospect in baseball has become MLB regular players every single year. Bruce Will be an MLB regular, and will have 3 years of league minimum with 3 cost controlled arb years.


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