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Thread: Reds Standing firm.

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  1. #1
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    Reds Standing firm.

    I am starting to realize the Pipe Dream of a Santana or a Bedard might not materialize. I am now thinking that maybe just maybe... Kepping Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hamilton, etc... Might be the best for the Reds...

    Unless We can keep All those players, and send a multitude of Prospects for Santana/and or Bedard not named those above mentioned... I am for Signing Mark Prior and Jon Lieber. Give them big time incentive laden contracts and see what Happens...

    Would love to see Edwin traded for Bedard and Mora and not have to give up the untouchables....

    I would put Bailey in a Package for Santana but not include anyone else except 5 other Lower tier guys, maybe Drew Stubbs...

    The only other option, I would love to get a hold of is Toronto maybe dumping A.J.Burnett's Salary in our lap for 2nd Tier Prospects... That means No Baileys, etc...

    If the Reds can find some gems in the Next Lever Free Agents, Colon, Prior, and Lieber for examples... I am all for it and keeping the young Nucleous. I have changed my mind....

    Unless it is that fore-mentioned package of Bailey and 5 other LOW level Prospects for Santana and that inludes the Use of a 72 hour window to sign Santana LONG TERM...

    Thanks for your time...
    Last edited by Hondo; 12-19-2007 at 11:23 PM.

  2. #2
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    I am starting to realize the Pipe Dream of a Santana or a Bedard might not materialize. I am now thinking that maybe just maybe... Kepping Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hamilton, etc... Might be the best for the Reds...
    You are like the tenth person to finally figure this out and start a thread about it...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Yeah, I have ADDHDTV.

    I apologize.

    Thanks

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Yeah, I have ADDHDTV.

    I apologize.

    Thanks
    well at least you came around. Welcome to the club...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    I think it was the Silva deal that made me figure it out. I didn't want the Reds to invest anything like that in a pitcher like that... I cannot figure out why they did it? Did they not forget Jarrod Washburn?

    Thankyou Mariners...

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    I think if people really think about it, they will realize that 2009 is the year we will really challenge for the playoffs. I expect Griffey will have his option year bought out, Hamilton and Bruce will be in the outfield, Votto will have an outstanding rookie year, Bailey and Cueto will be ready to help the Reds to the playoffs, and all the other things will come together. We simply need to get a couple free agent starting pitchers to tide us over until then. I would start with Livan Hernandez and Bartolo Colon.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"


    For the Reds to compete in the perceived window of 2009-2011 almost everything will have to go right for us for the first time since the BRM and we will have to increase payroll by a huge amount.


    However with the current position players we have control over we have a 2-3 year window that is only a TOR SP and a RH bat away.

    Sometimes you have to go for it. I admit it is a HUGE gamble either way you look at it.

    I would prefer we trade a package around Bruce for Kazmir/Bedard and make a smaller move for a RH slugger. Go for it. I'm tired of the constant pseudo rebuild bs that we are constantly going through
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"


    For the Reds to compete in the perceived window of 2009-2011 almost everything will have to go right for us for the first time since the BRM and we will have to increase payroll by a huge amount.


    However with the current position players we have control over we have a 2-3 year window that is only a TOR SP and a RH bat away.

    Sometimes you have to go for it. I admit it is a HUGE gamble either way you look at it.

    I would prefer we trade a package around Bruce for Kazmir/Bedard and make a smaller move for a RH slugger. Go for it. I'm tired of the constant pseudo rebuild bs that we are constantly going through
    The only problem is that I think you are wrong on almost all of your predictions. Both Bailey and Cueto, will be top of the rotation starters, Votto will turn out to be one of the best first baseman in the league in a couple of years, and Hamilton and Bruce will both reach their projections. I do agree that we will have to pay more money to Cordero, and the price for Edwin and Brandon Philips will go up. I am not sure of the exact contracts that Harang and Arroyo have, but I see no reason why we could not re-sign both in due course. The price will go up as they continue to perform well, but I expect the Reds will be a winning organization by that time and will have no trouble paying the pair of them.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Both Bailey and Cueto, will be top of the rotation starters,
    The last Reds draftee that went through the system that ended up as even a middle-of-the-rotation guy was Brett Tomko. Absolutely no chance Bailey and Cueto both end up aces.

    Votto will turn out to be one of the best first baseman in the league in a couple of years,
    We still play in a league that includes Pujols, Lee, and Fielder, right?

    and Hamilton and Bruce will both reach their projections.
    That might be true.


    Honestly, an organizational plan that entails (a) doing nothing while (b) assuming that every single high-level prospect in your organization is going to be a perennial All-Star, is not a plan at all. It's a fantasy.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"
    Hire a priest to bless Great American Ball Park?
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    ADOPT THIS SIGNATURE IN SOLIDARITY!!!

  11. #11
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"


    For the Reds to compete in the perceived window of 2009-2011 almost everything will have to go right for us for the first time since the BRM and we will have to increase payroll by a huge amount.


    However with the current position players we have control over we have a 2-3 year window that is only a TOR SP and a RH bat away.

    Sometimes you have to go for it. I admit it is a HUGE gamble either way you look at it.

    I would prefer we trade a package around Bruce for Kazmir/Bedard and make a smaller move for a RH slugger. Go for it. I'm tired of the constant pseudo rebuild bs that we are constantly going through

    First, the point of this and many similar threads is that the Reds can reach the playoffs in 2008 and especially 2009 without trading away any of their future. If you believe that, then, so what if what you say will happen in 2010, happens?

    Second, odds are about half of the Reds prospects and future plans will mature as expected. Which means that the Reds will be in great shape in 2010.

    Third, about a million unexpected events will happen between now and 2010, so why it is silly to try to figure out what state the Reds or Major League Baseball will be in then. I mean at this time last year, everyone was hoping that Hamilton would be a nice bat off the bench.

  12. #12
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, the point of this and many similar threads is that the Reds can reach the playoffs in 2008 and especially 2009 without trading away any of their future.
    That's where I differ with these threads. The Reds' overall run differential was -70. The Cubs' run differential was +62. To expect to be competitive next year you are need to change the run differential equation by about 130 runs.

    Seeing that we gave up 853 runs last year (2nd worst in the NL), most of these runs have to be made up from the pitching staff. Certainly we all hope the bullpen will be better, so some improvement will come from that, but a starting staff that last year consisted of Harang/Arroyo/?/?/? was a huge part of the problem.

    Well, the starting staff is still Harang/Arroyo/?/?/?. It's certainly nice that the ?s will be filled with young pitchers that have promise to develop instead of the dreck we've thrown out over the past, oh, 10 years. Expecting Bailey/Cueto/Maloney/Belisle/fringe FA signing to fill out a playoff calibre starting staff next year is unrealistic however. The numbers just don't add up.

    If you want to win NEXT YEAR, the only way to do that (barring phenomenal luck) is to add a difference making starting pitcher. The only way to do that is to let go of some of your prospects.

    Frankly, I'd like to win next year for a change.

  13. #13
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUReds View Post
    That's where I differ with these threads. The Reds' overall run differential was -70. The Cubs' run differential was +62. To expect to be competitive next year you are need to change the run differential equation by about 130 runs.

    Seeing that we gave up 853 runs last year (2nd worst in the NL), most of these runs have to be made up from the pitching staff. Certainly we all hope the bullpen will be better, so some improvement will come from that, but a starting staff that last year consisted of Harang/Arroyo/?/?/? was a huge part of the problem.

    Well, the starting staff is still Harang/Arroyo/?/?/?. It's certainly nice that the ?s will be filled with young pitchers that have promise to develop instead of the dreck we've thrown out over the past, oh, 10 years. Expecting Bailey/Cueto/Maloney/Belisle/fringe FA signing to fill out a playoff calibre starting staff next year is unrealistic however. The numbers just don't add up.

    If you want to win NEXT YEAR, the only way to do that (barring phenomenal luck) is to add a difference making starting pitcher. The only way to do that is to let go of some of your prospects.

    Frankly, I'd like to win next year for a change.


    The Diamondbacks last year actually had a -20 runs difference last year and went to the NL Championship series. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a +19 runs difference. So the Reds don't necessarily need to get to +62 runs to compete.

    But let's say the Reds need to get where the Cubs were last year, and they need to gain 132 runs.

    By adding Cordero, they move Weathers and Burton back, and don't have to use guys like Stanton or Coffey as much. Last year the Reds bullpen gave up 281 runs. The league average is 220 runs for a bullpen. I say that Cordero makes the Reds least an average bullpen. That's 61 runs right there.

    And remember that just with MacKanin, they gained over 20 runs than with Narron. I think Dusty will be at least as good as MacKanin. So that's a gain of at least 81 runs.

    Just with Cordero and Baker, the Reds are back to even or better.

    Add with EE probably having a better year, Votto being an improvement over Hatteberg, Hamilton healthier for more than 90 games, Gonzalez healthy and available for more than 110 games, a full of year of Hopper and Keppinger on the bench the Reds gain around 20 runs. So even with terrible 3-5 starters again, the Reds probably gain at least 100 runs.

    The 3-5 starters gave up 348 runs (in 509 innings for a whopping 6.15 ERA). I think that it is safe to say the Reds 3-5 starters can gain 34 runs (10%) with just a few tweaks. If they add some veteran innings eaters, that difference could be even greater.

    So, it really is not that hard to see how the Reds could make up 130 runs, and be competitive, without trading any of the big five or acquiring a difference making starter.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Diamondbacks last year actually had a -20 runs difference last year and went to the NL Championship series. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a +19 runs difference. So the Reds don't necessarily need to get to +62 runs to compete.

    But let's say the Reds need to get where the Cubs were last year, and they need to gain 132 runs.

    By adding Cordero, they move Weathers and Burton back, and don't have to use guys like Stanton or Coffey as much. Last year the Reds bullpen gave up 281 runs. The league average is 220 runs for a bullpen. I say that Cordero makes the Reds least an average bullpen. That's 61 runs right there.

    And remember that just with MacKanin, they gained over 20 runs than with Narron. I think Dusty will be at least as good as MacKanin. So that's a gain of at least 81 runs.

    Just with Cordero and Baker, the Reds are back to even or better.

    Add with EE probably having a better year, Votto being an improvement over Hatteberg, Hamilton healthier for more than 90 games, Gonzalez healthy and available for more than 110 games, a full of year of Hopper and Keppinger on the bench the Reds gain around 20 runs. So even with terrible 3-5 starters again, the Reds probably gain at least 100 runs.

    The 3-5 starters gave up 348 runs (in 509 innings for a whopping 6.15 ERA). I think that it is safe to say the Reds 3-5 starters can gain 34 runs (10%) with just a few tweaks. If they add some veteran innings eaters, that difference could be even greater.

    So, it really is not that hard to see how the Reds could make up 130 runs, and be competitive, without trading any of the big five or acquiring a difference making starter.


    *TCG quickly ducks* before getting smashed by hyperbole and random speculation...


    1) The defense is still below average and the corner OFs are both horrendous.
    2) 4/5 SP's are still unknown and are likely to be a combo of near washed up has been and a rookie with control problems...
    3) Cordero's addition does not make the Reds an average bullpen by any stretch of the term. Weathers is old, Burton is still unproven, then what? Stanton? Majewski? Bray? McBeth? Salmon possibly makes the club? bring up Pelland? Where is the rest of the average bullpen, because I don't see them standing with the rest of the team...
    4) Bruce/Votto/Bailey/Cueto even if they do ever reach their potential, it WILL NOT be this year! How fast can a team and their message boards sour on a prospect or a young player? Ask Todd Coffey.
    5) Someone try to explain why (and without giving a Bruce projection similar to Bill James or saying that Cueto and Bailey will be as dominant as DougDirt thinks they will be) you possibly think that we can compete in the division this year.
    6) Someone name me the last dominant Reds pitching prospect to be worth his hype after reaching the show.
    7) As far as bailey goes... Depends too heavily on his fastball and barely can throw a changeup, let alone for strikes. However he has "been working" on it for the last 3 years... Walk rate is over 4 per 9IP and his K rate was below 6 last year. Way too many walks not even close to enough K's and thats before we mention the possible attitude problem in the works...
    8) As far as cueto goes... Excellent command and nasty stuff but be honest with yourselves people... HE IS 5'10"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It has been debated over and over again but I'll take a guy with the longer stride and downward pitching angle over the short kid putting enormous strain on his arm with his midget man stride to home.
    9) This whole thread angers me
    10) Jeff Keppinger reminds me a lot of Chris Stynes... I don't trust him yet. Norris Hopper has NO pop in his bat at all. Its like a faster version of a typical 12 year old trying to bunt his way on in little league because he can't catch up to the 60mph heat that kids tossin his direction...




    The biggest problem I have with everyone's theory to stay firm is that it depends on having all 5 of our top prospects (I'm including Hamilton. Half a season proves nothing to me) reach their respective ceilings within the next 3 years while we still have Harang/Arroyo in our control. Plus it assumes that EE will somehow finally blossom and reach his potential while BP must continue his current 30/30 exploits and possibly win a GG.


    Go for Bedard now. Build a package around Bruce and make it happen! 2 years with Bedard to work out a LTC. Funny thing happens when your team wins, you tend to resign with them... see Mike Lowell/Curt Schillilng Boston Red Sox circa 2007)
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  15. #15
    Attack Cat! OUReds's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Diamondbacks last year actually had a -20 runs difference last year and went to the NL Championship series. The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 with a +19 runs difference. So the Reds don't necessarily need to get to +62 runs to compete.
    I did make a exception for phenomenal luck. If you PLAN to outperform your RS/RA that's what you are hoping for, luck.

    As far as Dusty being worth 20 runs and Cordero 60 over the course of the year, I dunno what to tell you other then I think you are being ... overly optimistic. The rest of your equation has the Red's making a few tweaks to their rotation, and relying on better health. I would submit that the Red's actually were pretty lucky injury-wise last year overall, and that it isn't "safe" at all to assume that the rotation will improve next year on its own.

    As far as Bedard's injury risk, I know he's had issues in the past, but his TJ surgery was 5 years ago, there is no reason for it to be any concern. We are talking about a pitcher who is well past the injury nexus, and who has pitched 196 and 182 innings the past two years. He is no more of an injury risk then other pitchers, and a lot less likely to hurt himself then Bailey or Cueto.
    Last edited by OUReds; 12-20-2007 at 03:18 PM.


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