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Thread: Reds Standing firm.

  1. #1
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    Reds Standing firm.

    I am starting to realize the Pipe Dream of a Santana or a Bedard might not materialize. I am now thinking that maybe just maybe... Kepping Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hamilton, etc... Might be the best for the Reds...

    Unless We can keep All those players, and send a multitude of Prospects for Santana/and or Bedard not named those above mentioned... I am for Signing Mark Prior and Jon Lieber. Give them big time incentive laden contracts and see what Happens...

    Would love to see Edwin traded for Bedard and Mora and not have to give up the untouchables....

    I would put Bailey in a Package for Santana but not include anyone else except 5 other Lower tier guys, maybe Drew Stubbs...

    The only other option, I would love to get a hold of is Toronto maybe dumping A.J.Burnett's Salary in our lap for 2nd Tier Prospects... That means No Baileys, etc...

    If the Reds can find some gems in the Next Lever Free Agents, Colon, Prior, and Lieber for examples... I am all for it and keeping the young Nucleous. I have changed my mind....

    Unless it is that fore-mentioned package of Bailey and 5 other LOW level Prospects for Santana and that inludes the Use of a 72 hour window to sign Santana LONG TERM...

    Thanks for your time...
    Last edited by Hondo; 12-19-2007 at 11:23 PM.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    I am starting to realize the Pipe Dream of a Santana or a Bedard might not materialize. I am now thinking that maybe just maybe... Kepping Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Hamilton, etc... Might be the best for the Reds...
    You are like the tenth person to finally figure this out and start a thread about it...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Yeah, I have ADDHDTV.

    I apologize.

    Thanks

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Yeah, I have ADDHDTV.

    I apologize.

    Thanks
    well at least you came around. Welcome to the club...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    I think it was the Silva deal that made me figure it out. I didn't want the Reds to invest anything like that in a pitcher like that... I cannot figure out why they did it? Did they not forget Jarrod Washburn?

    Thankyou Mariners...

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    I think if people really think about it, they will realize that 2009 is the year we will really challenge for the playoffs. I expect Griffey will have his option year bought out, Hamilton and Bruce will be in the outfield, Votto will have an outstanding rookie year, Bailey and Cueto will be ready to help the Reds to the playoffs, and all the other things will come together. We simply need to get a couple free agent starting pitchers to tide us over until then. I would start with Livan Hernandez and Bartolo Colon.

  8. #7
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"


    For the Reds to compete in the perceived window of 2009-2011 almost everything will have to go right for us for the first time since the BRM and we will have to increase payroll by a huge amount.


    However with the current position players we have control over we have a 2-3 year window that is only a TOR SP and a RH bat away.

    Sometimes you have to go for it. I admit it is a HUGE gamble either way you look at it.

    I would prefer we trade a package around Bruce for Kazmir/Bedard and make a smaller move for a RH slugger. Go for it. I'm tired of the constant pseudo rebuild bs that we are constantly going through
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"


    For the Reds to compete in the perceived window of 2009-2011 almost everything will have to go right for us for the first time since the BRM and we will have to increase payroll by a huge amount.


    However with the current position players we have control over we have a 2-3 year window that is only a TOR SP and a RH bat away.

    Sometimes you have to go for it. I admit it is a HUGE gamble either way you look at it.

    I would prefer we trade a package around Bruce for Kazmir/Bedard and make a smaller move for a RH slugger. Go for it. I'm tired of the constant pseudo rebuild bs that we are constantly going through
    The only problem is that I think you are wrong on almost all of your predictions. Both Bailey and Cueto, will be top of the rotation starters, Votto will turn out to be one of the best first baseman in the league in a couple of years, and Hamilton and Bruce will both reach their projections. I do agree that we will have to pay more money to Cordero, and the price for Edwin and Brandon Philips will go up. I am not sure of the exact contracts that Harang and Arroyo have, but I see no reason why we could not re-sign both in due course. The price will go up as they continue to perform well, but I expect the Reds will be a winning organization by that time and will have no trouble paying the pair of them.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"
    Hire a priest to bless Great American Ball Park?
    FIRE DUSTY BAKER

    ADOPT THIS SIGNATURE IN SOLIDARITY!!!

  11. #10
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"


    For the Reds to compete in the perceived window of 2009-2011 almost everything will have to go right for us for the first time since the BRM and we will have to increase payroll by a huge amount.


    However with the current position players we have control over we have a 2-3 year window that is only a TOR SP and a RH bat away.

    Sometimes you have to go for it. I admit it is a HUGE gamble either way you look at it.

    I would prefer we trade a package around Bruce for Kazmir/Bedard and make a smaller move for a RH slugger. Go for it. I'm tired of the constant pseudo rebuild bs that we are constantly going through

    First, the point of this and many similar threads is that the Reds can reach the playoffs in 2008 and especially 2009 without trading away any of their future. If you believe that, then, so what if what you say will happen in 2010, happens?

    Second, odds are about half of the Reds prospects and future plans will mature as expected. Which means that the Reds will be in great shape in 2010.

    Third, about a million unexpected events will happen between now and 2010, so why it is silly to try to figure out what state the Reds or Major League Baseball will be in then. I mean at this time last year, everyone was hoping that Hamilton would be a nice bat off the bench.

  12. #11
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    Tell me exactly what the Reds are going to do in 2010 when:

    1) They realize at least 1 of the Homer/Cueto combo is topping out as a #4/5 type SP
    2) Harang/Arroyo need to be resigned
    3) They are paying around 13 mil a year for a 37 year old closer
    4) Are forced to pay real $$ to EE and Phillips
    5) Joey Votto fails to set the world on fire and is only an average major league 1B
    6) Hamilton or Bruce do not reach their lofty "projections"


    For the Reds to compete in the perceived window of 2009-2011 almost everything will have to go right for us for the first time since the BRM and we will have to increase payroll by a huge amount.


    However with the current position players we have control over we have a 2-3 year window that is only a TOR SP and a RH bat away.

    Sometimes you have to go for it. I admit it is a HUGE gamble either way you look at it.

    I would prefer we trade a package around Bruce for Kazmir/Bedard and make a smaller move for a RH slugger. Go for it. I'm tired of the constant pseudo rebuild bs that we are constantly going through
    What is any team going to do in 2011? How is Boston going to replace manny, will they resign Beckett, what happens when Bucholz goes stupid and steals some more stuff, what if ellsbury flops

    It all can be said about every MLB team.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Both Bailey and Cueto, will be top of the rotation starters,
    The last Reds draftee that went through the system that ended up as even a middle-of-the-rotation guy was Brett Tomko. Absolutely no chance Bailey and Cueto both end up aces.

    Votto will turn out to be one of the best first baseman in the league in a couple of years,
    We still play in a league that includes Pujols, Lee, and Fielder, right?

    and Hamilton and Bruce will both reach their projections.
    That might be true.


    Honestly, an organizational plan that entails (a) doing nothing while (b) assuming that every single high-level prospect in your organization is going to be a perennial All-Star, is not a plan at all. It's a fantasy.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    IMO, we need to GAMBLE - which is what you do with EVERY trade you make of PROSPECTS - and trade ONE of Homer/Cueto for a PROVEN Commodity.

    THEN, you can compete in 2008 and still have a young prospect pitcher for the future.

    This is the epitomy of "One in the Hand beats TWO in the Bush". This way you get ONE in the hand, and still have ONE in the Bush...

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS

  15. #14
    Attack Cat! OUReds's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, the point of this and many similar threads is that the Reds can reach the playoffs in 2008 and especially 2009 without trading away any of their future.
    That's where I differ with these threads. The Reds' overall run differential was -70. The Cubs' run differential was +62. To expect to be competitive next year you are need to change the run differential equation by about 130 runs.

    Seeing that we gave up 853 runs last year (2nd worst in the NL), most of these runs have to be made up from the pitching staff. Certainly we all hope the bullpen will be better, so some improvement will come from that, but a starting staff that last year consisted of Harang/Arroyo/?/?/? was a huge part of the problem.

    Well, the starting staff is still Harang/Arroyo/?/?/?. It's certainly nice that the ?s will be filled with young pitchers that have promise to develop instead of the dreck we've thrown out over the past, oh, 10 years. Expecting Bailey/Cueto/Maloney/Belisle/fringe FA signing to fill out a playoff calibre starting staff next year is unrealistic however. The numbers just don't add up.

    If you want to win NEXT YEAR, the only way to do that (barring phenomenal luck) is to add a difference making starting pitcher. The only way to do that is to let go of some of your prospects.

    Frankly, I'd like to win next year for a change.

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    Re: Reds Standing firm.

    The Reds organization has done a dreadful job of scouting the last 20 years. There is no denying it has had trouble developing prospects in that time period. We now have 4 prospects who look to be top prospects who will make a difference for a long time to come. I have heard many people say Votto will never be better than a league average first baseman, and he showed just the opposite in September. Bailey was brought up too early, and he suffered an injury that set him back in the summer. He showed us a good curve and a good fastball in September, but he still needs some time to work on his other off-spped pitches. Cueto has shown an ability to dominate each level, and excellent control. I have seen nothing from either pitching prospect to make me back up on the assertion that both will be front-line starters in a year or two. The biggest mistake we could mak is to trade all our top prospects for short-term gain.


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