Adam Dunn and a LTC

[AmarilloRed]

It would seem that with the trade of Hamilton, there will be more pressure on the Reds to sign Adam Dunn to a LTC. Jay Bruce most likely will take over for Hamilton in center, and not replace an aging Griffey in right. We might have Griffey stay on with an added option year in 2009, but we could just as easily buy him out. Freel and Hopper are both reserve outfielders and should not be starting 162 games, so it is just as likely we could sign the likes of Cameron to a short deal.

More importantly, we now really need to sign Adam Dunn to a LTC. Bruce is now going to be the only guaranteed starting outfielder in 2009, and our lack of starting outfielders will now become apparent. Dickerson can play some good defense, but he is not enough a good enough hitter to make it as a starting outfielder. We should have tried to sign Dunn to a LTC earlier, because with the sort of contracts bad corner outfielders got, we now could very well pay Adam Dunn 16-20 million a year if he does not give us a hometown discount.

[Jefferson24]

15 a year for 4 years would be nice, but I bet it takes more than that.

[TN Red Fan]

Dunn isn't out of the woods yet, I'd say.

If we fall out of the race, I could see Dunn's name come up in trade talks at the deadline.

Why not get something in return? Even if you trade him you'll have the opportunity to bring him back in the open market. The advantage is that in the open market, you get to choose between Dunn and every other $15-20 million/year outfielder that might be available.

Also, what if Hopper bats .330 again? Is he still a reserve outfielder? That would give him four seasons of .310/.340/.330/.330, including AAA. IMO, that's a scenario that would change things.

I say start negotiations, but don't solidify anything until next year.

When you're a small-market team, you have to be constantly looking for value. You can't allow yourself to get attached to players. Dunn's a great power hitter and will deserve every dollar he gets, but he's not going to give you good value.

[donnelly_31]

Why is Hopper definitely a reserve OF'er? The guy hit over .300! and is the closest thing the Reds have to a traditional leadoff-type hitter. This line up has plenty of HR power already and not enough set the table kind of guys.

[TN Red Fan]

Why is Hopper definitely a reserve OF'er? The guy hit over .300! and is the closest thing the Reds have to a traditional leadoff-type hitter. This line up has plenty of HR power already and not enough set the table kind of guys.

People don't believe in Hopper. IMO, it's a long-standing prejudice against older prospects which isn't necessarily warranted. If Hopper was 23 and had come off a .330 season after hitting .310 and .340 in his previous two seasons in AAA, people would like him a lot better.

I remember when I was in little league, I had a coach who was a star ball-player for a small local college (Washington & Lee). The Reds came to town with one of those open tryouts that teams do and a lot of guys, including my coach, went to try out. He was a 5-tool outfielder and the scout there said they would have signed him except he was too old. He was 22!

[jmac]

we now could very well pay Adam Dunn 16-20 million a year if he does not give us a hometown discount.

I still believe Dunn is the kind that would take a "discount" to play here. Dont know for sure but just a guess.
I also read where Votto made a comment like he would like to play entire career with reds. His opinion may change but it sounded nice anyway.

[Mr.MojoRisin]

I like Dunn, I think he still has alot of potential. I'd hate to see them get rid of him just yet.

[*BaseClogger*]

Somebody made a great point that if Dunn won't sign a LTC, we could trade him at the allstar break for a ML-ready OF prospect...

[ChatterRed]

People don't believe in Hopper. IMO, it's a long-standing prejudice against older prospects which isn't necessarily warranted. If Hopper was 23 and had come off a .330 season after hitting .310 and .340 in his previous two seasons in AAA, people would like him a lot better.

I remember when I was in little league, I had a coach who was a star ball-player for a small local college (Washington & Lee). The Reds came to town with one of those open tryouts that teams do and a lot of guys, including my coach, went to try out. He was a 5-tool outfielder and the scout there said they would have signed him except he was too old. He was 22!

Keppinger is another good example. A 26-27 year old "just made it to the majors, but produced in the minors" player seems to be written off all the time. A team could get 5 good seasons out of a player like that. It seems that every team is looking for the 21-23 year old phenom and tend to overlook solid players just because of their age.

I agree with what you said.

[*BaseClogger*]

People don't believe in Hopper. IMO, it's a long-standing prejudice against older prospects which isn't necessarily warranted. If Hopper was 23 and had come off a .330 season after hitting .310 and .340 in his previous two seasons in AAA, people would like him a lot better.

I remember when I was in little league, I had a coach who was a star ball-player for a small local college (Washington & Lee). The Reds came to town with one of those open tryouts that teams do and a lot of guys, including my coach, went to try out. He was a 5-tool outfielder and the scout there said they would have signed him except he was too old. He was 22!

This is because guys tend to do better once they have played at the same level in the minors for a couple of years and their numbers are taken with a grain of salt. Usually, they don't pan out, so why wouldn't we want them to prove it for me than one season?

[Jay Bruce]

People don't believe in Hopper. IMO, it's a long-standing prejudice against older prospects which isn't necessarily warranted. If Hopper was 23 and had come off a .330 season after hitting .310 and .340 in his previous two seasons in AAA, people would like him a lot better.

I believe that Hopper relied too much on luck last year to consistently hit in the .330 range. His BABIP last year was .369, an unsustainable number next year. With average luck, his BABIP should have been around .320, which is 0.197 (his Line Drive %) plus 0.120.

In addition, a large contingent of his hits were of the drag bunt variety. Eventually teams will start to specifically defend against this, and the bunt will become less successful in the process. When you add in his lack of power, you have a player with a very low margin of error needed to be an effective hitter. His speed and defense make him a good backup, but I would not counton him to be anything more than that.

[*BaseClogger*]

I believe that Hopper relied too much on luck last year to consistently hit in the .330 range. His BABIP last year was .369, an unsustainable number next year. With average luck, his BABIP should have been around .320, which is 0.197 (his Line Drive %) plus 0.120.

In addition, a large contingent of his hits were of the drag bunt variety. Eventually teams will start to specifically defend against this, and the bunt will become less successful in the process. When you add in his lack of power, you have a player with a very low margin of error needed to be an effective hitter. His speed and defense make him a good backup, but I would not counton him to be anything more than that.

this coupled with below-average plate discipline...

[TN Red Fan]

In addition, a large contingent of his hits were of the drag bunt variety. Eventually teams will start to specifically defend against this, and the bunt will become less successful in the process. When you add in his lack of power, you have a player with a very low margin of error needed to be an effective hitter. His speed and defense make him a good backup, but I would not counton him to be anything more than that.

Being a threat to bunt is a huge advantage. Show bunt on the first pitch and you effectively remove the 3B from the defense, which helps baserunners. The pitcher and catcher are rattled (as a former catcher, I know). What you lose in effectiveness of the bunt you gain in base hits.

And power is wasted in the leadoff spot.

Hopper is best used in a platoon. He hit .390 against lefties. Adjust that all you want, it's still an incredible number.

[Natty Redlocks]

I believe that Hopper relied too much on luck last year to consistently hit in the .330 range. His BABIP last year was .369, an unsustainable number next year. With average luck, his BABIP should have been around .320, which is 0.197 (his Line Drive %) plus 0.120.

In addition, a large contingent of his hits were of the drag bunt variety. Eventually teams will start to specifically defend against this, and the bunt will become less successful in the process. When you add in his lack of power, you have a player with a very low margin of error needed to be an effective hitter. His speed and defense make him a good backup, but I would not counton him to be anything more than that.

I agree with this assessment. However, I have a feeling the plan is to keep Bruce in Louisville until "someone" gets injured, and have Hopper and Freel share CF/leadoff duties. We need that speed at the top of the lineup, dude.

People need to prepare themselves to see Bruce treated just like Votto was last year.

[TN Red Fan]

this coupled with below-average plate discipline...

How's that?