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Thread: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

  1. #1
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7596852

    7. Homer Bailey, SP, Reds, 21
    Bailey has loads of natural ability, but thus far he's struggled in the majors. He looked much better in September after returning from a groin injury, and the hope is that he'll be able to capitalize on that success in 2008. Bailey's got a fastball for the ages, a tremendous hammer curve, a classic power pitcher's frame, solid change, and a record of success in the minors. On the mound he's sometimes aggressive to a fault, and he needs to rely less on his fastball. Once he learns to mix up his pitches a bit better, he should take off. Bailey will pitch his home games in a brutal environment for hurlers, so grade him on a curve this season. Also, here's hoping that manager Dusty Baker doesn't overwork Bailey while he's still at such a young age.

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    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    And that my friend is what I have always believed he will be a full time starter on the Reds.
    2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing

    Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    Homer made nine starts, and impressed me with his pitching in five of them. He had a few clunkers but that's to be expected for a rookie.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    It's absolutely amazing that a kid's stock could drop so much in the minds of some people due to 6 starts in the bigs at the age of 21. Oh yeah, and he was 4-2 in those starts (ERA and WHIP was awful though, of course).

    But the point is the same one I've been hammering home for weeks: If Bailey's stock has dropped, that's fine. We'll keep him. He's still the same guy who was considered the No. 1 pitching prospect in the minors as late as June of 2007. I am not going to be concerned about a small sample size in the majors when he was dealing with a groin injury. Everyone and I mean everyone had him ranked ahead of Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester and every other young pitcher you can think of that hadn't already been called up (well, Hughes had been called up, and then immediately got hurt). And we're not talking about a year or two ago. A few months ago. Then I'm supposed to believe he's something entirely different because of six starts in the majors as a rookie? Please.

  6. #5
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    It's absolutely amazing that a kid's stock could drop so much in the minds of some people due to 6 starts in the bigs at the age of 21. Oh yeah, and he was 4-2 in those starts (ERA and WHIP was awful though, of course).

    But the point is the same one I've been hammering home for weeks: If Bailey's stock has dropped, that's fine. We'll keep him. He's still the same guy who was considered the No. 1 pitching prospect in the minors as late as June of 2007. I am not going to be concerned about a small sample size in the majors when he was dealing with a groin injury. Everyone and I mean everyone had him ranked ahead of Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester and every other young pitcher you can think of that hadn't already been called up (well, Hughes had been called up, and then immediately got hurt). And we're not talking about a year or two ago. A few months ago. Then I'm supposed to believe he's something entirely different because of six starts in the majors as a rookie? Please.
    Bailey had 9 starts, and only 3 of them were bad. His other 6 starts he posted a 3.86 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over those 6 starts. Those 3 bad starts came directly after hurting his groin in Philly in a bullpen session.

    Yeah, I agree with you though, I just wanted to give a little more to your stuff.

  7. #6
    Just The Big Picture macro's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    Different era, different teams, different players, I realize, but...

    Code:
    Greg Maddux (1987): 6-14 5.61   Age: 21
    Tom Glavine (1988): 7-17 4.56   Age: 22
    John Smoltz (1988): 2-7  5.48   Age: 21
    Granted, the '88 Braves were awful, but the '87 Cubs that Maddux pitched for weren't that bad.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    Macro, lets also note that the league average ERA in those years for those pitchers (park adjusted so they will vary for players on different teams) were:
    Maddux - 4.25, so Maddux was 1.36 worse than the league average. Walked 74 in 155 innings.
    Glavine - 3.66, so Glavine was 0.90 worse than the league average. Walked 33 and struck out 20 in 50 innings.
    Smoltz - 3.66, so Smoltz was 1.82 worse than the league average. He also had control issues.

  9. #8
    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey primed for break-out year

    Homer is an Elite pitcher and all the down grading him has worn thin on me. This kid has at no level made you come to the conclusion that his ceiling had climaxed. Sure the Bedard's and Harens have a better MLB record but some times you just have to stick your neck out and go for it. In Cueto's and homer's cases I am all in . for those who like to live in revisionary past or feel the need to say I told you so down the line. I state right now These Kids are not the Berenyi's and Pastores of past. These 2 kids can be something this organization can time stamp as the change in how the Reds minor league system is not like the past.

    I also want to state that going the cheap in MLB amture draft needs to be stopped forever.
    2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing

    Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.


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