Significant improvement means they need to be in the playoff hunt. Plain and simple. I'm not saying they have to win it all...but they better be minimally knocking on the door of the postseason.
What's unusual about them has been that none of the players have completely washed out already. In the past, we've had multiple guys drafted in rounds 4-10 out of baseball in just over a year, and multiple pitchers with immediate shoulder problems.
but if you have a look at the 2006 draft, you see that almost everyone's done something positive and that this has created a lot of trade value within the organization. That's a solid effort. Importantly: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SHOULDER SURGERIES! I repeat-- there have been no shoulder surgeries. Most of those pitchers have reached A and are really looking solid; some are all the way up to Chattanooga. That's terrific.
He gave a lot of money to Ravin and to Arneson, and they have control issues. It happens; maybe they'll figure it out. He reached a bit on Stubbs, but a defensive, powerful RHHing CFer that can lead off was a clear need in the organization and remains one. Have a thought if Stubbs DOES become a more powerful Mike Cameron-- that's a huge help, correct? You could actually keep Adam Dunn in LF if Stubbs becomes a player. right idea. Player needs to come through. He's clearly developing better than Szymanski, so there's hope.
in 2007, Mesoraco and Cozart might turn out to be defensive reaches, but you understand them-- defense is really bad up in Cincy. No. 4 Stouffer did not sign. No. 5 Bowman got beat up pretty badly in his first go-round. But my initial reaction is that this draft will turn out to look quite a bit like 2006's
I voted "No".
When evaluating a General Manager the proof is in the pudding. The pudding says the Reds have had miserable records the past two seasons.
We can compare and contrast every transaction, draft pick, trade and signing but our opinions mean less than the team's record on the field. The team has performed poorly -- so it will be hard to convince me the GM has done a good job so far.
We can name lots of seemingly very good moves Krivsky has made, but since the team has a losing record under his tenure those good moves must have been cancelled out by the poor moves.
Most of the team's hopes and strengths lie with players acquired before Krivsky arrived. Harang, Dunn, Griffey, Encarnacion, Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Bruce represent the bulk of this team's foundation for 2008 and beyond and all of those players were here pre-Krivsky. Wayne has brought in Arroyo, Phillips, Cordero and a bunch of spare parts. These additions were not nearly enough to turn a bad team into a good one -- and that is why the team has continued to play badly.
I don't think Krivsky has proven to be a bad GM either. I just don't see any reason to extend his contract at this time. That is why I voted No.
This is the third year. If they do not show a nice chunk of improvement then he should be given the boot. He has chosen not to rebuild, so minimally we should be seeing improvement on the major league level by now.
Because stability is always found in changing regimes every 3 years right?If they do not show a nice chunk of improvement then he should be given the boot.
keep an eye on the farm, keep an eye on the pitching. Important predictors.
both MacPhail and Beane had two bad seasons to start their tenures. each had more success in year 3.
Brooklyn stuck with Branch Rickey in spite of three straight years of decliine, getting terrible in year three. finally won a pennant in year five (first year of Jackie Robinson)
After this season, Wayne will have had 3 years and what seems like trillions of dollars in Cincinnati currency at his disposal to improve this team. Seriously, in the past few years he has spent good chunks of change on Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Gonzalez, Dunn and other smaller sized amounts on guys like Stanton. Has any Cincy GM in recent times been able to spend like this? And where is it getting them?
At what point do you say "You know Wayne, maybe you work best as an Asst GM?"
I knew that DanO was wrong within a month. Krivsky's a huge improvement over previous 8 years. Should see if he develops a pitcher, which would make him the first in 20 years.
if Stubbs hits, it would also break a 15-year-old Pat Watkins jinx. These are important milestones.
Last edited by princeton; 12-28-2007 at 04:32 PM.
I don't know...5 years could go by and we could be having the same conversation. Improvement. Progress. Let's just see some of that. If the ML team isn't showing it and the farm isn't producing top guys, then what does Wayne have to show as proof of his work? "Depth" in the farm, which could partially be due to the fact that he had a serious amount of high picks last season? Improvement on paper, like saying "At least they have a closer now, that's due to WK"?
I don't know how much more time he needs. If people start refuting that progress needs to be made in '08, then I'm not sure what anyone expects.