Scott Carroll
Jose Castro
Tzu-Kai Chui
Chris Dickerson
Richie Gardner
Danny Herrera
Sean Henry
Sean Henry
Evan Hildenbrandt
Paul Janish
Sam Lecure
Derrik Lutz
Marcus McBeth
Justin Reed
Craig Tatum
Justin Turner
Chris Valaika
Pedro Viola
Other (please specify)
OK, I'll make the case for Gardner..... Tore up both High A and AA with ERA's below 2.00, then had bad stats at AAA. The question is "Why?" either the level of competition was that much higher, or he was hurt or he was worn down.
To me the "worn down" theory is the one that makes most sense. He only pitched 66 innnings in 2005 (year of surgery) and 31 innings in 2006 coming off surgery. He'd already pitched 80 innings before being promoted to AAA.
This guy was Minor League pitcher of the Year for the Reds, and it wasn't based on fastballs, but sliders, changeups, good groundball ratios.
We'll know pretty early next year what the story is on Gardner, but if he's right, he could be starting games in GAB in 2008 sometime.
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The fact that the Reds chose to place him on the 40 man roster may be a sign that they think he's bucked the odds and is over his arm problems. The "worn down" theory is a very possible explanation.
IIRC Gardner was never a big time power pitcher. He was getting groundballs in the lower levels in 2007 so he may be back to what he was. The problem is that I was never sure how his stuff would work against big leaguers. Hopefully he'll be this year's Bobby Livingston story without the bad ending.
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This one was easy: Pedro Viola.
I'm amazed by how few votes Justin Turner has gotten. http://minors.baseball-reference.com....cgi?pid=31766
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Unless he's got a gold glove, an .805 OPS from a 22 year old in A Ball doesn't exactly turn my head. He doesn't really seem to have any plus skills per se'. Decent average, decent plate discipline, decent speed, not much pop. Should be polished after 4 years at CS Fullerton. If he can do that in AA, I imagine he'll jump up some lists. For now, I think he's where he should be.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
According to this which I got from the Lutz thread (Thanks to Icehole) he in fact does play above avg defense albeit at 2nd alone as he has the fringy arm strength.
7 204 CIN Justin Turner 2b Cal State Fullerton CA $50,000
Many college baseball fans remember him from the 2003 College World Series, when as a freshman he was hit in the face while squaring to bunt on a pitch against Stanford. Turner also turned his ankle on the play and missed Team USA's college national trials after doctors determined that he broke a bone in his ankle on the play. He recovered to have a steady, gritty career and saved his best for last, posting career highs in batting (.352), slugging (.500) and stolen bases (18) as a senior--after declining to sign with the Yankees as a 29th-round pick last year. One scout compared Turner favorably with Red Sox prospect Dustin Pedroia, an All-American at Arizona State and a 2004 second-round pick. Like Pedroia, Turner makes all the plays defensively (even at short) thanks to superior footwork and profiles as an above-average defender on the right side of the infield thanks to his fringy arm. He's an average runner with excellent instincts.
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I think Turner is a lock to reach the major leagues. He won't be an All-Star or anything, but I expect him to have a career as a utility man. He is exactly the type of player Cincinnati fans love: small and scrappy guy who gives it his all.
With most of the prospects, we can say they have one great going for each of them (i.e. lots of power potential, a good 'pitch', etc.). However, in the case of Turner, what hurts him is that nothing really stands out--he's adequate or better at everything. Seeing as how he's a second baseman, I think that's a good skill to have.
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