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Thread: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

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    Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    With pitchers and catchers only six weeks away, I thought I'd take a gander at the minor league system, and see where people wanted to start several of our prospects. Here is my list (all ages are as of P&C report date):

    1. J.Bruce, 20, OF AAA Start in AAA until one of the OF's get hurt, then bring him up and start him everyday. I wouldn't be upset, however, if he was the Opening Day CF.

    2. H.Bailey 21, RHP AAA If the Reds can acquire another starter, I start him in AAA until one of the rotation spots open up. At that point, he's up and in the rotation for good. If the Reds don't acquire another SP, I'm fine with him starting the year as the #5.

    3. J.Cueto 21, RHP AAA Start in AAA, if he does well I bring him up to pitch out of the bullpen beginning in June. Provided he continues to progress, I give him a couple of spot starts at the end of the summer.

    4. T.Frazier 21, SS/3B A I start him in Dayton, but if he hits well he goes to Sarasota by June.

    5. M.Maloney 24, LHP AAA He starts as the #3 pitcher in Louisville, assuming Bailey is down there as well. Once Bailey gets called up, he is next in line for spot starting duty if a pitcher goes down in Cincy.

    6. J.Roenicke 25, RHP AAA I start him in Louisville, and leave him there until the ASBreak. If he is doing well, look for him in Cincy by the end of the summer.

    7. D.Stubbs 23, OF A+ He starts in Sarasota and must continue his hot streak he ended the year with. If he does, he's in Chattanooga by the ASBreak. If he doesn't, he's bust city.

    8. T.Wood 21, LHP A+ He also starts in Sarasota, but should look for a call up to Chattanooga around the ASBreak.

    9. K.Lotzkar 18, RHP A He should have a good year in Dayton, where he remains all season long.

    10. D.Mesoraco 19, C A He should also be slotted in at Dayton for the duration of the season. Hopefully he starts hitting.

    11. D.Dorn 23, OF AA He'll start at Chattanooga, but could be in Louisville by midsummer if he keeps hitting. Look for his promotion to coincide with Stubbs coming to Chattanooga.

    12. S.Watson 22, RHP A+ He needs to regain his composure with a full season in Sarasota. Hopefully he bounces back and regains his form.

    13. C.Fisher 24, RHP AA He'll start in Chattanooga, although he'll be 25 before the season starts. Once Bailey and/or Cueto are promoted to the big club, look for him to fill their spot in the Louisville rotation. He has to gain consistency.

    14. A.Rosales 24, INF AAA I start him in Louisville, but let him concentrate on playing one position. He had a solid half of a season in Chattanooga last season, and factoring in his age (he'll be 25 before the ASBreak) this is a good example of needing to challenge thy hitters.

    15. J.Francisco 20, 3B A+ His power is tempting, but really needs to improve his plate discipline in Sarasota in order to remain relevant. His fielding needs to continue to improve as well.

    Some others:
    16. T.Pelland, 24 LHP AAA
    17. B.Waring, 21 3B A/A+ (midseason promotion)
    18. N.Soto, 18 SS/3B A
    19. S.LeCure, 23 RHP AA/AAA (midseason promotion)
    20. D.Thompson, 22 RHP A+/AA (midseason promotion)
    21. C.Valaika, 22 2B A+
    22. P.Viola, 24 LHP AA/AAA (midseason promotion)
    23. D.Herrera, 23 LHP AAA
    24. J.Turner, 22 2B A+
    25. C.Tatum, 24 AA/AAA (midseason promotion)

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Benihana; 12-27-2007 at 02:47 PM.
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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Watson is hopefully in AA by midseason
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Watson is hopefully in AA by midseason
    Nah, with his struggles last season, it would be good for him to be coddled a bit and spend a full season in Sarasota. Unless he is completely dominant, I would let him stay there all season.
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Nah, with his struggles last season, it would be good for him to be coddled a bit and spend a full season in Sarasota. Unless he is completely dominant, I would let him stay there all season.
    I guess you're right... he's gonna end up in the bullpen anyways...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    we should try to trade a lot of these guys.

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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    we should try to trade a lot of these guys.
    which ones would you like to move (other than Francisco?)
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    I have a feeling these Dayton and Louisville teams are going to be awesome. Waring, Soto, Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, possibly even Hildenbrandt on the same team? Top 3 or Bailey-Cueto-Maloney in Louisville (doubt it happens, Im 99% sure Bailey is in the bigs) along with Rosales and Bruce, and Pelland, Roenicke, and Herrera in the pen.
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    How will the infield in Dayton shore up? Frazier 3B Soto SS Waring 2B?
    Domo Arigato, Here Comes Joey Votto

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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    How will the infield in Dayton shore up? Frazier 3B Soto SS Waring 2B?
    My guess is Waring ends up at 1B, no way does he play in the middle infield. What will be interesting is to see is which one sticks at SS and who moves to 3B between Frazier and Soto. Maybe Cozart plays at SS (he's the best fielder of the bunch) and either Soto or Frazier goes to the OF?
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    I'll bet Frazier starts at High-A in Sarasota.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue View Post
    I'll bet Frazier starts at High-A in Sarasota.
    Me too. That still begs the question, what happens to the Middle infield with Francisco manning third base we have Valaika, Turner and Frazier for 2 spots.

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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Me too. That still begs the question, what happens to the Middle infield with Francisco manning third base we have Valaika, Turner and Frazier for 2 spots.
    Figure out which position suits Frazier the best for the future, and work the other three guys around him. Frazier is miles ahead of the other three in terms of future importance to the organization. I wouldn't be shocked to see Francisco end up in the OF.
    Last edited by Benihana; 12-27-2007 at 02:13 PM.
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    I think there are tiers in our system where the grouping of players really are just all falling in line with eachother. The top 4, then 5-10 are roughly in the same range, then 11-20, then 21-30, then 31-50 all seem to be in line with eachother.

    Its not like that in all systems, but in the better systems in baseball, which the Reds likely have the #2/3 system in baseball behind just the Devil Rays and maybe the Red Sox (yeah, how does that one make you feel about competing for a WS over the next 10 years) there is definately a different set of talent. I am not saying don't trade certain guys, but there is certainly a large difference in trade value of a guy like Drew Stubbs/Todd Frazier have a much stronger value (although Frazier can't be traded yet) than someone much lower on the list and its not close to being able to substitute the players for guys in the 15+ range.

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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think there are tiers in our system where the grouping of players really are just all falling in line with eachother. The top 4, then 5-10 are roughly in the same range, then 11-20, then 21-30, then 31-50 all seem to be in line with eachother.

    Its not like that in all systems, but in the better systems in baseball, which the Reds likely have the #2/3 system in baseball behind just the Devil Rays and maybe the Red Sox (yeah, how does that one make you feel about competing for a WS over the next 10 years) there is definately a different set of talent. I am not saying don't trade certain guys, but there is certainly a large difference in trade value of a guy like Drew Stubbs/Todd Frazier have a much stronger value (although Frazier can't be traded yet) than someone much lower on the list and its not close to being able to substitute the players for guys in the 15+ range.

    According to my rankings, I think the tiers would look more like this:
    1-3
    4-5
    6-25

    In other words, outside of the big four + Maloney and Frazier, everybody is in the same ballpark.
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    Re: Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    According to my rankings, I think the tiers would look more like this:
    1-3
    4-5
    6-25.

    exactly, although I think it's an even broader set of players in the third class.

    I've seen us have stronger players in the 6-10 range, but they're not here right now. So if a team takes a shine to our top 10 players, let them shop. They're very replaceable.


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