Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

[dougdirt]

It might be a little early to make any judgements on Mesoraco this season, although I'm not optimistic. Start him in Billings if you want, but if a Top 15 draft pick can't even make his way to A ball in his second season, it's not a good sign. Stubbs on the other hand, better hit and hit well for the first couple months this season, especially if he's only in Sarasota. If he doesn't, like I said, he's bust city.

I don't think there is any doubt that Mesoraco will start in Dayton unless he really struggles in spring training. Despite what you think you can see in his numbers, the Reds saw him in person and know whats up with the kid. He won't start in Billings.

As for Stubbs, even if he has a bad season (sub .800 OPS) its not exactly bust city, but it gets a lot closer. However there is nothing that suggests he is on that path. I see him splitting time between Sarasota and Chattanooga next year, hitting much better in Chattanooga than Sarasota.

[princeton]

That's if he repeats the GCL. If he goes to Billings. I wouldn't need to see the same jump offensively.

oh, you would need to see it on account of princeton's Pat Watkins Rule.

in the past 15 years, the lowest OPS that any future big leaguer posted at Billings was Jason LaRue's .742. That's the low water mark. Really, you need to see .780 or higher.

It's been the single best early predictor of which Reds prospects position players would never work out. Pat Watkins, Gookie Dawkins, and Johnny Oliver couldn't OPS higher than .750 and, of course, didn't make it.

it's a great way for kids to learn quickly if they should switch to pitching or to another career. Craig Tatum? try relieving. Paul Janish? think about the mound, too. Josh Holden? stay in the Army

Drew Stubbs? .768. Gonna be tough....

[Benihana]

Or else...what?

The usual rules with regard to hitting don't necessarily apply to catchers, or progression, for that matter. Particularly HS catchers. We won't really know his trajectory toward bust or not for at least two more seasons...

And what rules are those? In the last 10 years, there have been 17 catchers selected in the first/sandwich round. Do you know how many of those catchers repeated rookie league (including advanced rookie league) in their second professional season? Zero.

Of those 17 catchers selected in the first round, do you know how many earned more than a cup of coffee in the big leagues? Two (Joe Mauer and Jarrod Saltalamacchia)

So I ask you again, please tell me what rules you are referring to? If Mesoraco remains in Rookie ball all season long, and doesn't improve his hitting dramatically, his outlook will be pretty grim.

[Benihana]

I don't think there is any doubt that Mesoraco will start in Dayton unless he really struggles in spring training. Despite what you think you can see in his numbers, the Reds saw him in person and know whats up with the kid. He won't start in Billings.

As for Stubbs, even if he has a bad season (sub .800 OPS) its not exactly bust city, but it gets a lot closer. However there is nothing that suggests he is on that path. I see him splitting time between Sarasota and Chattanooga next year, hitting much better in Chattanooga than Sarasota.

I hope you're right on both accounts. I hope Mesoraco starts the season in Dayton (and hits), and I hope Stubbs can hit enough to earn himself a June promotion to Chattanooga. But that's what is great about this time of year- hope springs eternal.

[dougdirt]

Just food for thought, Derek Jeter hit .202/.296/.312 in the GCL his first pro year. The next year he OPS'd .770 in low A.

[membengal]

Well, Benihana, the rules that people in these parts seem to apply to high draft picks in wanting immediate return. Drafting a HS catcher is a ****load different in terms of expectation and immediate return than drafting, say, a college OF. By "rules" I am simply saying that one brush should not be used to paint the progress of those respective picks. To put a paticular expectation on Morosco for 2008 in terms of production (which, of course, is your right) is something I don't find too reasonable (my right). But, by all means, lay on however much expectation of Morosco at the age of 19 and one year removed from HS as a catcher you wish. But I won't join you in that kind of meet-this-mark-or-he's-a-bust gamesmanship just yet...

[Benihana]

Well, Benihana, the rules that people in these parts seem to apply to high draft picks in wanting immediate return. Drafting a HS catcher is a ****load different in terms of expectation and immediate return than drafting, say, a college OF. By "rules" I am simply saying that one brush should not be used to paint the progress of those respective picks. To put a paticular expectation on Morosco for 2008 in terms of production (which, of course, is your right) is something I don't find too reasonable (my right). But, by all means, lay on however much expectation of Morosco at the age of 19 and one year removed from HS as a catcher you wish. But I won't join you in that kind of meet-this-mark-or-he's-a-bust gamesmanship just yet...

That's why I used the historical data of catchers drafted in the first or sandwich rounds, not college outfielders. You're well entitled to reserve judgement as long as you want. But in "taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008" as this thread is entitled, I think its only fair to expect the guy with the $1.4 MM signing bonus to be able to earn himself a roster spot in Dayton in his second professional season. I don't think that's as much demanding immediate results as it is expecting him to fall in line with the other 17 players that have been drafted at his position in the past ten years.

And for the record, his name is Mesoraco, not Morosco.

[lollipopcurve]

Furthermore, show me how many top 15 picks (position players especially) have repeated a year in rookie ball, even in this organization. Justin Reed may have been one example, but he was a fourth round pick. That's a far cry from an early first round pick.

I'm not saying I'm ready to declare Devin a bust by any stretch- it is far too early for that. I'm just saying he better start hitting, and soon- especially if he's going to remain in Rookie ball.

You won't find many top-15 picks who repeat rookie ball, that's true. Neither will you find HS catchers taken in the first 15 picks very often (the only one that leaps to mind is Mauer). Mesoraco is a bit of an anomaly, so if you're looking for comparables in order to draw conclusions about him, I think you'll be frustrated. As Belichick would say, he is what he is.

The rush to judgment on high draft picks is notorious here. But I think it should be acknowledged that Mesoraco's position requires we be more patient with him as a hitter. At this point, I'd be just as happy to hear reports of his defensive excellence than of his advancing skills with the stick.

[mth123]

I'm guessing the organization would want Jake Long (22 in April), who had an .807 OPS at Billings and has some college, to play at Dayton in 2008. That would be Long's next logical step. Older guys like Jason Bour and Frank Meade will probably be the back ups. The Reds actually drafted Long in 2004 and when he didn't sign took him again in 2005. Somebody (not sure who or if that person survived the regime change) liked him a little.

Mesoraco won't be 20 until around draft time and a year in Billings won't hurt him. He'll be playing against a lot of College guys and second year high schoolers like himself. It isn't really holding him back for him to play in Billings. It's a step up from where he played last year and whether you put much stock in it or not, he didn't exactly knock the door down. If Mesoraco plays well for a month, he can move up.

[Benihana]

I'm guessing the organization would want Jake Long (22 in April), who had an .807 OPS at Billings and has some college, to play at Dayton in 2008. That would be Long's next logical step. Older guys like Jason Bour and Frank Meade will probably be the back ups. The Reds actually drafted Long in 2004 and when he didn't sign took him again in 2005. Somebody (not sure who or if that person survived the regime change) liked him a little.

Mesoraco won't be 20 until around draft time and a year in Billings won't hurt him. He'll be playing against a lot of College guys and second year high schoolers like himself. It isn't really holding him back for him to play in Billings. It's a step up from where he played last year and whether you put much stock in it or not, he didn't exactly knock the door down. If Mesoraco plays well for a month, he can move up.

That's fine, I'm not going to cry if D-Mes plays in Billings this year, even though I'd rather see him in Dayton. I've already said earlier on this thread it's way too early to call him a bust. However, if he does go to Billings, he needs to hit and hit well if he's going to continue to stay in high regard.

[membengal]

Benihana wrote:

Mesoraco, not Morosco

Oooohhh, ya got me. My bad for wading into this part of the site. I will wade back out.

And, pretty much agree with everything lollipop said up above a few posts. Pretty much captures what I think in a nutshell.

But, hey, if folks want to rush to judgement with Meserwhatever his name is, why not? It's what is done on this part of the forum a lot, so I will stop whizzing into the wind.

[princeton]

Furthermore, show me how many top 15 picks (position players especially) have repeated a year in rookie ball, even in this organization.

8th round pick in 1980 repeated a Rookie League:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...ic-Davis.shtml


it's why my award for most improved minor leaguer is the Eric Davis Award. I'm happy to give it to Mesoraco in 2008

[Benihana]

Furthermore, show me how many top 15 picks (position players especially) have repeated a year in rookie ball, even in this organization.

8th round pick in 1980 repeated a Rookie League:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...ic-Davis.shtml


it's why my award for most improved minor leaguer is the Eric Davis Award. I'm happy to give it to Mesoraco in 2008

(you do know there is a sizeable difference between an 8th round pick and a top 15 pick?)

That said, if Mesoraco OPS's over 1.000 this year, he will be hitting and hitting well, and I too will be happy!

[Cyclone792]

oh, you would need to see it on account of princeton's Pat Watkins Rule.

in the past 15 years, the lowest OPS that any future big leaguer posted at Billings was Jason LaRue's .742. That's the low water mark. Really, you need to see .780 or higher.

It's been the single best early predictor of which Reds prospects position players would never work out. Pat Watkins, Gookie Dawkins, and Johnny Oliver couldn't OPS higher than .750 and, of course, didn't make it.

it's a great way for kids to learn quickly if they should switch to pitching or to another career. Craig Tatum? try relieving. Paul Janish? think about the mound, too. Josh Holden? stay in the Army

Drew Stubbs? .768. Gonna be tough....

Sounds like a pretty good quick'n dirty test. I'd be interested in seeing more big leaguers too if you have anything handy, especially broken down into regular starters vs. bench fodder.

LaRue's an interesting name to see as the low point. Some power for a catcher, and quite a bit of his offensive value during his peak years was sticking the arm out over the plate and taking some HBPs for the team.

[mth123]

That's fine, I'm not going to cry if D-Mes plays in Billings this year, even though I'd rather see him in Dayton. I've already said earlier on this thread it's way too early to call him a bust. However, if he does go to Billings, he needs to hit and hit well if he's going to continue to stay in high regard.

I think he'll move fast if he hits but it isn't a total loss if he takes longer. At 20, he'll be younger than a lot of the players in his league if he plays at Billings. That league has a lot of 21/22 year olds who put 3 years in college. Frazier and Waring, for example, were older there last year than Mesoraco would be in 2008.

I'm guessing the catching depth lines up as follows:

Hanigan and Colina in AAA.
Tatum and Kroski at AA.
Eddie Rodriguez and Justin Tordi at A+
Jake Long and Frank Meade at A-
Mesoraco and Jason Bour at Billings