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Thread: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Oct 2007

    2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    BaseballThinkFactory has finished their 2008 Reds projections here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

    The Reds should be another one of the NL's huge middle class. That's always tricky for management because there can be a tendency to not completely commit to either short or long-term planning and play it safe, taking the mediocre middleway, resulting in neither goal being pursued effectively. However, the Reds are better off than a team like the Astros as, while Krivsky hasn't exactly shown himself to be a genius, he also hasn't dumped the team's prospects and depth in an attempt to focus on a relative weakness - Ed Wade would've dumped Cueto or Votto for a middle reliever by now. While the Reds have had bullpen problems, they charged after value and got probably the best reliever available.
    The team has a terrific front 4 of prospects in Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, and Votto, plus some guys that could still pan out like Drew Stubbs and the surprising Rog...err...Daniel Dorn. There are also several guys that had impressive 1st and 2nd seasons at very low levels that aren't listed below but should appear next year, such as Brandon Waring.

    Krivsky's next test will be if he can handle the team's weaknesses outside of the obvious need for pitching. The Reds play in a very good hitting environment and the team needs to ignore the talk radio set that think the offense is the best ever and the pitching is the worst ever. Overall, the 2006 and 2007 Reds combined for a league-average offense (99 OPS+, so a hair below, but not significantly) and with Dunn very likely to depart and not really a good candidate to age well even if the team keeps him and Griffey extremely old, they're going to also have to pay attention to their offense the next few years.

    It was really nice to see Keppinger make the most of his cup of coffee. He's obviously not as good a player as he was, but his minor league record said that he deserved to get a chance in the majors. The Reds got a lot of use out of another guy with a good minor league track record and few opportunities in Ryan Freel. Let's see if they can do it again - if Keppinger's for real, it would be a great time to extract top dollar for Phillips.
    Most interesting notes:
    *ZiPS expects Dunn to age sooner rather than later: .239/.366/.498
    *They project BOTH Jeff Keppinger AND Jorge Cantu to have a higher 2008 OPS than Brandon Phillips (can you say OVERRATED?)
    *Hopper's line is as expected: .291/.330/.340 with average CF defense
    *Jay Bruce's line: .266/.317/.476
    *They think Keppinger is an average defender everywhere on the field except SS, C, and CF
    *They project Belisle as the team's third best starter with a 4.89 ERA, yet they only expect 15 starts...
    *Bailey/Cueto/Volquez ERA's: 4.91/4.97/5.21

    Overall I would say that most of the projections are pretty conservative, but if these projections are accurate we aren't as good as we think we are for 2008, especially the offense. You can leave a comment at the bottom of the linked page if there is anything you disagree with...
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 12-27-2007 at 11:40 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    and buckeye fans only a week and a half away from another embarrassing loss they'll be forever unable to reconcile though one would think they should be well used to the modern buckeye brand.

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