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Thread: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    BaseballThinkFactory has finished their 2008 Reds projections here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

    The Reds should be another one of the NL's huge middle class. That's always tricky for management because there can be a tendency to not completely commit to either short or long-term planning and play it safe, taking the mediocre middleway, resulting in neither goal being pursued effectively. However, the Reds are better off than a team like the Astros as, while Krivsky hasn't exactly shown himself to be a genius, he also hasn't dumped the team's prospects and depth in an attempt to focus on a relative weakness - Ed Wade would've dumped Cueto or Votto for a middle reliever by now. While the Reds have had bullpen problems, they charged after value and got probably the best reliever available.
    The team has a terrific front 4 of prospects in Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, and Votto, plus some guys that could still pan out like Drew Stubbs and the surprising Rog...err...Daniel Dorn. There are also several guys that had impressive 1st and 2nd seasons at very low levels that aren't listed below but should appear next year, such as Brandon Waring.

    Krivsky's next test will be if he can handle the team's weaknesses outside of the obvious need for pitching. The Reds play in a very good hitting environment and the team needs to ignore the talk radio set that think the offense is the best ever and the pitching is the worst ever. Overall, the 2006 and 2007 Reds combined for a league-average offense (99 OPS+, so a hair below, but not significantly) and with Dunn very likely to depart and not really a good candidate to age well even if the team keeps him and Griffey extremely old, they're going to also have to pay attention to their offense the next few years.

    It was really nice to see Keppinger make the most of his cup of coffee. He's obviously not as good a player as he was, but his minor league record said that he deserved to get a chance in the majors. The Reds got a lot of use out of another guy with a good minor league track record and few opportunities in Ryan Freel. Let's see if they can do it again - if Keppinger's for real, it would be a great time to extract top dollar for Phillips.
    Most interesting notes:
    *ZiPS expects Dunn to age sooner rather than later: .239/.366/.498
    *They project BOTH Jeff Keppinger AND Jorge Cantu to have a higher 2008 OPS than Brandon Phillips (can you say OVERRATED?)
    *Hopper's line is as expected: .291/.330/.340 with average CF defense
    *Jay Bruce's line: .266/.317/.476
    *They think Keppinger is an average defender everywhere on the field except SS, C, and CF
    *They project Belisle as the team's third best starter with a 4.89 ERA, yet they only expect 15 starts...
    *Bailey/Cueto/Volquez ERA's: 4.91/4.97/5.21

    Overall I would say that most of the projections are pretty conservative, but if these projections are accurate we aren't as good as we think we are for 2008, especially the offense. You can leave a comment at the bottom of the linked page if there is anything you disagree with...
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 12-28-2007 at 12:40 AM.
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Phillips bat is overrated but his baseruning and fielding more than makes up for his lack of OBP.

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    Retro-Gamer Krawhitham's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    and last season ZiPS claimed Phillips would bat .266 14HR 17SB in 2007

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Projections are fun, I could spend all day going over them. But they are pretty useless on young players (see projections for Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Dustin Pedroia), especially pitchers. Bill James doesn't even think it can be done with pitchers.

    They tend to be pretty accurate with veteran position players, but just look at the projections last year for James Shields, Fausto Carmona, and Jeremy Guthrie. No need to think that Bailey, Cueto and Volquez will all be as bad as projected.

    Still, I am not sure why he thinks Reds fans would be disappointed with that production. They have five guys projecting from around .800 - .850 OPS. And even Dan says that it was Phillips' past years of sucking that lead to his low projection for '08. I have a feeling Phillips, overrated or not, will have at least a .800 OPS in '08 which gives the Reds five out of eight spots with a .800 OPS projection or better in '08. I am fine with that.
    I also think that one from this group will have a .900+ OPS next year. Most likely Dunn.

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    I can all but guarantee that Votto has an OBP of around .380 and not .350.

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    757690, I think its great you are happy with 5 guys at .800 OPS, but you have to realize that that 5 out of 9 guys above .800 and only one bove .900 is not going to compete effectively even in the NL Central. Really, you need 3 minimum to be over .900, unless your pitching is lights out, which the Reds can't say yet. Will they be better then last year, I think so, but will their record looks significantly different? I doubt it. They will be more fun to watch, I expect.

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by nyjwagner View Post
    Really, you need 3 minimum to be over .900, unless your pitching is lights out, which the Reds can't say yet.
    FWIW, there were only 15 players in the NL last year who OPS'd .900 or better and had enough qualifying plate appearances, so a little less than one per team. One of those players was Adam Dunn. If you look at guys who had 200 or more plate appearance, that adds about another half dozen. Josh Hamilton was one of them. The only team with three .900+ guys was Colorado and none of them OPS'd .900+ away from Coors Field. Dunn did OPS .900+ away from GABP.

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    The Latin Heartthrob Javy Pornstache's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Agree that Phillips' bat is overrated, not that I don't value him for what he is on our team, but still a little surprised that ZiPS had Keppinger AND Cantu both out-OPSing him?! Surprising, low OBP and all.

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    I can all but guarantee that Votto has an OBP of around .380 and not .350.
    I'll second that emotion...

    Now we just need a #3/#4 SP, or we ain't doing ZIP as far as Playoff Contention is concerned...

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Dan Szymborski saying "*They project BOTH Jeff Keppinger AND Jorge Cantu to have a higher 2008 OPS than Brandon Phillips" is laughable. Keppinger is the ultimate utility guy and not likely at all to produce like he did in 2007. Cantu won't even be around so Szymborski isn't comparing apples to apples b/c whereever Cantu lands, it won't be the same pitchers at the same time that Brandon Phillips will be seeing them.

    Szymborski also noted: "...if Keppinger's for real, it would be a great time to extract top dollar for Phillips." I would like to know what Szym' thinks "top dollar" would be for Brandon Phillips? Phillips has always been known as a player with enormous potential going back to his Montreal Expos days, but that talent wasn't fully shown until BP came to Cincinnati, felt relaxed and relieved (of the Cleveland Indians) and will be just fine as the Reds 2nd baseman for the next decade. I don't trade this rare talent unless his name is Johann Santana.

    If you look at/critique the Reds minor league system, you'll find the Outfield positions to be in good hands with Bruce, Dickerson and Stubbs soon to be patrolling GABP . The infield also looks great for years to come with Votto, Phillips, Valaika, Frazier and even 1st baseman Adam Rosales looks to be very intriguing. Catching will be manned by Mesoroco, hopefully sometime in the late 2009 season or beginning in 2010. The starting pitching is blooming big-time now for the Reds with Bailey, Cueto, Maloney and now add in Edinson Volquez to vie with Belisle, Livingston, Shearn and to lend support to the #1 and #2 guys: Harang and Arroyo. The relief corps will soon add Tyler Pelland. Pelland of the 3.04 ERA and 1.01WHIP, albeit in just 23 innings last season (Louisville) seems to offer a high level of promise. Danny Herrera helps turn our troubled 2007 bullpen, hopefully, into respectability with Francisco Cordero, Weathers, Burton, Bray, McBeth, Coutlangus, Majewski and those other two guys (Coffey and Stanton) that I hope will be pitching elsewhere at the beginning on the '08 season.

    Overall, more talent, than what I just mentioned, is on the radar and giving our Reds more hope of sustained +.500 years of baseball and as the team gels (I think beginning in 2009) the Reds should be a viable post-season team for years to come, year in and year out.

    Add to all of this a key free agent here and there, beginning with the 2008 off-season, and it will elevate the Reds to the Upper Class in MLB and not having "The Reds (...) be another one of the NL's huge middle class" as Dan Szymborski sees our club.

    Let's hope that Wayne Krivsky holds on to the entire wealth of talent heading for Cincinnati starting in April!!! Man, I am so excited to see baseball start up again!!! I believe 3rd place is in order for 2008 but with a little luck 2nd place could happen. 2009, ahhhhhhh, the fun begins....again!!!

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    I agree that Krivsky's greatest accomplishment is NOT trading our best prospects away. So many teams do that year after year.

    What I've admired about WK, is that when he does trade a prospect away, he typically is on the winning side of the deal. Otherwise he doesn't make it.

    His one so-called bad trade, in the eyes of many (but not me) was trading Kearns and Lopez. Yet on the "Kearns" thread on The Sun Deck, the overwhelming majority would not want him back. Go figure. But somehow that was a bad trade. Bray is getting better. And more than likely, that was a salary dump seeing how they were both up for arbitration, and we were 2 games over .500 at the time.

    Even more comical was Leatherpants gushing over how he got his long term starting SS and RFer out of that deal, but this offseason he has stockpiled OFer's and said Kearns is available. Funny Stuff. Also, they were down on Lopez by the end of the year.

    In the end, WK may have gotten the best of that trade because Kearns and Lopez are worth nothing at this point.
    Who's on first?

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    The Latin Heartthrob Javy Pornstache's Avatar
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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    ^^^^ I believe most thought it was a bad trade, not because we shouldn't have traded Kearns or Lopez, per se, but because of the VALUE we should've gotten out of them. Kearns was a hot property, I recall lots of rumors from sources of a Kearns-Westbrook deal that almost happened a couple times, and also the Cubs offering Rich Hill for him. I'd have rather done either of those than give up Kearns and Lopez both (Felipe had more trade value at the time too, coming off an All-Star season) for what they did. Maybe between Bray and Thompson, this deal can weigh more toward the Reds yet, but who knows. I think now is a good time to cash in Thompson as an attractive throw-in on a trade to a rebuilding team (a la Baltimore if anything ever WERE to happen there).

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    Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Javy Pornstache View Post
    ^^^^ I believe most thought it was a bad trade, not because we shouldn't have traded Kearns or Lopez, per se, but because of the VALUE we should've gotten out of them. Kearns was a hot property, I recall lots of rumors from sources of a Kearns-Westbrook deal that almost happened a couple times, and also the Cubs offering Rich Hill for him. I'd have rather done either of those than give up Kearns and Lopez both (Felipe had more trade value at the time too, coming off an All-Star season) for what they did. Maybe between Bray and Thompson, this deal can weigh more toward the Reds yet, but who knows. I think now is a good time to cash in Thompson as an attractive throw-in on a trade to a rebuilding team (a la Baltimore if anything ever WERE to happen there).
    I think it was an horrible trade as well. I think the park they are playing in has hurt them, horrible hitting park. That will change and I would not be surprised to see both of them rebound. I think it will come back and bite us but could be wrong!


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