The Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski has released the 2008 ZiPS system projections for the Cincinnati Reds here:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

Please note that I'm not positioning these projections as being reliable and I have pretty much no insight into the ZiPS methodology. Just thought it would be a good topic for conversation.

The hitters:

Code:
Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Adam Dunn*               lf  28  .239  .366  .498 152 524  94 125 26  1 36 103  99 170  5  0 
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .277  .357  .480 ------------------------------------------ 
Edwin Encarnacion        3b  25  .291  .361  .460 141 506  70 147 30  1 18  78  42  87  6  1
Ken Griffey Jr. *        rf  38  .272  .346  .480 113 427  62 116 20  0 23  81  50  83  2  0 
Joey Votto*              1b  24  .281  .357  .466 151 556  55 156 34  0 23  88  66 135 17  9 
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .276  .349  .461 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .275  .346  .463 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .272  .343  .449 ------------------------------------------
Jay Bruce*               cf  21  .266  .317  .476 137 523  48 139 42  4 20  73  38 152 12  9 
Jeff Keppinger           2b  28  .307  .360  .408 121 449  60 138 23  2  6  48  35  31  3  2 
Jorge Cantu              2b  26  .279  .324  .457 130 466  55 130 31  2 16  70  28  84  0  0
Brandon Phillips         2b  27  .271  .325  .435 146 568  87 154 26  2 21  79  39  94 22  6 
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .270  .335  .425 ------------------------------------------ 
Jesse Gutierrez          1b  30  .265  .332  .423  85 279  26  74 18  1  8  39  25  57  0  0 
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .275  .336  .414 ------------------------------------------
Daniel Dorn*             lf  23  .247  .318  .436 125 470  41 116 27  1 20  72  36 118  3  1
Scott Hatteberg*         1b  38  .261  .348  .374 106 348  42  91 18  0  7  48  44  36  0  0 
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .273  .329  .407 ------------------------------------------ 
Javier Valentin#         c   32  .261  .328  .406  85 207  23  54 12  0  6  32  20  29  0  0 
Ryan Freel               cf  32  .264  .346  .376 108 386  62 102 22  3  5  33  41  70 26 10 
AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .258  .328  .403 ------------------------------------------
Sea Bass Gonzalez        ss  31  .257  .317  .417 124 432  57 111 25  1 14  58  33  84  1  1 
Mark Bellhorn#           2b  33  .216  .328  .380 103 305  33  66 18  1 10  44  47 106  0  0 
Jason Ellison            lf  30  .273  .322  .388 115 227  39  62 12  1  4  21  15  38  8  5 
Adam Rosales             1b  25  .230  .306  .409 128 486  57 112 31  4 16  58  41 121 13  7 
Ryan Hanigan             c   27  .252  .332  .350 100 294  32  74 16  2  3  27  33  49  0  1 
Chris Dickerson*         cf  26  .225  .313  .380 138 476  50 107 19  5 15  52  56 190 23  8 
Norris Hopper            cf  29  .291  .330  .340 121 382  51 111 12  2  1  30  21  36 12  6 
Craig Tatum              c   25  .242  .281  .380 108 389  31  94 22  1 10  44  20 103  1  2 
Ryan Jorgensen           c   29  .218  .284  .356  77 239  24  52 12  0  7  25  22  70  1  0 
Dave Ross                c   31  .203  .275  .369  70 187  18  38  7  0  8  24  18  59  0  0 
Juan Castro              ss  36  .235  .280  .365  73 170  16  40 11  1  3  20  10  38  0  1 
Paul Janish              ss  25  .228  .294  .317 147 539  52 123 26  2  6  46  42  82 10  3 
Andy Machado#            ss  27  .205  .299  .303 123 347  37  71 12  2  6  29  45 103  7  4 
Chris Valaika            ss  22  .236  .280  .343 140 543  41 128 26  1 10  58  22 144  1 10 
Drew Stubbs              cf  23  .223  .301  .335 136 538  64 120 29  2  9  44  56 175 18 23 
Marland Williams         cf  27  .195  .259  .324 106 333  35  65 13  3  8  32  26 138 19  7
My comments:

ZiPS likes Eddie E's potential this season, is bullish on Jeff Keppinger (Szymborski suggests that the time to trade Brandon Phillips is now). Joey Votto looks about right, and ZiPS thinks that Griffey can contribute decent numbers in limited time (113 games). That feels decent as well.

ZiPS is bearish on Adam Dunn (projecting the second lowest full-season BA of his career) and doesn't think much of Brandon Phillips' chances of repeating his 30/30 season. We don't see any love for Alex Gonzalez or Scott Hatteberg and certainly ZiPS doesn't heart David Ross.

BTW, ZiPS projects that Josh Hamilton is likely to produce a line of .289 BA/.341 OBP/.491 SLG.

Then there's Jay Bruce...

Code:
Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  RAR   DR+
Optimistic (15%)  .297  .355  .540 149 569  62 169 49  7 25 104  49 148 20 10   37   12 
Mean              .266  .317  .476 137 523  48 139 42  4 20  73  38 152 12  9   11    9 
Pessimistic (15%) .239  .283  .416 124 473  37 113 35  2 15  65  29 152  7  8   -7    5
Please note that all projections include a low projected IsoD (OBP minus BA). I'm not saying that any of the projections are accurate, but as I've been warning folks about that.

Also, as the "Means" for Votto and Bruce project @290 Strikeouts, those who think the Reds already have enough K bats should get really excited.

The pitchers:

Code:
Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Francisco Cordero         33   3.34   5   2  71   0    70.0   61   26   5   27   80 
David Weathers            38   3.84   5   3  63   0    68.0   66   29   8   26   46 
Aaron Harang              30   3.87  13  10  33  33   221.0  219   95  26   52  196 
Jared Burton              27   4.16   5   4  59   0    67.0   65   31   7   32   54
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.35 ----------------------------------------------- 
Bronson Arroyo            31   4.36  11  11  32  31   200.0  216   97  25   56  130 
Bill Bray*                25   4.42   4   5  49   0    55.0   54   27   7   19   49 
Brad Salmon               28   4.62   4   4  57   0    78.0   78   40   9   37   65 
Jon Coutlangus*           27   4.64   3   3  63   0    66.0   66   34   7   35   53 
Gary Majewski             28   4.68   3   4  74   0    75.0   83   39   7   30   44 
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.78 -----------------------------------------------
Matt Belisle              28   4.89   5   7  40  15   114.0  131   62  14   30   73 
Marcus McBeth             27   4.89   3   3  52   0    57.0   56   31   8   24   50 
Homer Bailey              22   4.91   7   9  25  25   132.0  133   72  16   68  105 
Todd Coffey               27   4.92   3   4  76   0    75.0   89   41  10   25   50 
Johnny Cueto              22   4.97   9  12  29  29   154.0  164   85  24   49  122 
Edinson Volquez           24   5.21  10  14  33  33   178.0  188  103  31   77  141 
Mike Stanton*             41   5.24   3   4  68   0    55.0   64   32   7   21   36 
Matthew Maloney*          24   5.45   9  15  28  28   170.0  180  103  28   85  129 
Bobby Livingston*         25   5.78   5  11  26  24   151.0  189   97  25   38   72 
Tyler Pelland*            24   5.82   4   9  45  15   116.0  126   75  15   76   77 
Richie Gardner            26   5.87   4   8  17  17    89.0  104   58  16   29   52 
Steve Kelly               28   6.03   4   9  22  16   100.0  121   67  18   39   61 
Alexander Smit*           22   6.36   3   8  31  15    99.0  111   70  17   64   71 
Daryl Thompson            22   7.04   3   9  18  18    78.0   93   61  12   31   57 
Sergio Valenzuela         23   8.52   1   3  34   5    75.0  101   71  21   50   30
While I'm incredibly excited to see that Gary Majewski might project only as a bad middle reliever rather than an awful one (note sarcasm), that list isn't giving me warm fuzzies. Here are the projected per-9 IP rates for the top 3 pitching prospects included (Bailey, Cueto, Volquez):

Bailey: 4.63 BB/9, 7.16 K/9, 1.09 HR/9
Cueto: 2.86 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.40 HR/9
Volquez: 3.89 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.57 HR/9

Feel free to discuss.