The Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski has released the 2008 ZiPS system projections for the Cincinnati Reds here:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/
Please note that I'm not positioning these projections as being reliable and I have pretty much no insight into the ZiPS methodology. Just thought it would be a good topic for conversation.
The hitters:
My comments:Code:Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Adam Dunn* lf 28 .239 .366 .498 152 524 94 125 26 1 36 103 99 170 5 0 AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .277 .357 .480 ------------------------------------------ Edwin Encarnacion 3b 25 .291 .361 .460 141 506 70 147 30 1 18 78 42 87 6 1 Ken Griffey Jr. * rf 38 .272 .346 .480 113 427 62 116 20 0 23 81 50 83 2 0 Joey Votto* 1b 24 .281 .357 .466 151 556 55 156 34 0 23 88 66 135 17 9 AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .276 .349 .461 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .275 .346 .463 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .272 .343 .449 ------------------------------------------ Jay Bruce* cf 21 .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9 Jeff Keppinger 2b 28 .307 .360 .408 121 449 60 138 23 2 6 48 35 31 3 2 Jorge Cantu 2b 26 .279 .324 .457 130 466 55 130 31 2 16 70 28 84 0 0 Brandon Phillips 2b 27 .271 .325 .435 146 568 87 154 26 2 21 79 39 94 22 6 AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .270 .335 .425 ------------------------------------------ Jesse Gutierrez 1b 30 .265 .332 .423 85 279 26 74 18 1 8 39 25 57 0 0 AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .275 .336 .414 ------------------------------------------ Daniel Dorn* lf 23 .247 .318 .436 125 470 41 116 27 1 20 72 36 118 3 1 Scott Hatteberg* 1b 38 .261 .348 .374 106 348 42 91 18 0 7 48 44 36 0 0 AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .273 .329 .407 ------------------------------------------ Javier Valentin# c 32 .261 .328 .406 85 207 23 54 12 0 6 32 20 29 0 0 Ryan Freel cf 32 .264 .346 .376 108 386 62 102 22 3 5 33 41 70 26 10 AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .258 .328 .403 ------------------------------------------ Sea Bass Gonzalez ss 31 .257 .317 .417 124 432 57 111 25 1 14 58 33 84 1 1 Mark Bellhorn# 2b 33 .216 .328 .380 103 305 33 66 18 1 10 44 47 106 0 0 Jason Ellison lf 30 .273 .322 .388 115 227 39 62 12 1 4 21 15 38 8 5 Adam Rosales 1b 25 .230 .306 .409 128 486 57 112 31 4 16 58 41 121 13 7 Ryan Hanigan c 27 .252 .332 .350 100 294 32 74 16 2 3 27 33 49 0 1 Chris Dickerson* cf 26 .225 .313 .380 138 476 50 107 19 5 15 52 56 190 23 8 Norris Hopper cf 29 .291 .330 .340 121 382 51 111 12 2 1 30 21 36 12 6 Craig Tatum c 25 .242 .281 .380 108 389 31 94 22 1 10 44 20 103 1 2 Ryan Jorgensen c 29 .218 .284 .356 77 239 24 52 12 0 7 25 22 70 1 0 Dave Ross c 31 .203 .275 .369 70 187 18 38 7 0 8 24 18 59 0 0 Juan Castro ss 36 .235 .280 .365 73 170 16 40 11 1 3 20 10 38 0 1 Paul Janish ss 25 .228 .294 .317 147 539 52 123 26 2 6 46 42 82 10 3 Andy Machado# ss 27 .205 .299 .303 123 347 37 71 12 2 6 29 45 103 7 4 Chris Valaika ss 22 .236 .280 .343 140 543 41 128 26 1 10 58 22 144 1 10 Drew Stubbs cf 23 .223 .301 .335 136 538 64 120 29 2 9 44 56 175 18 23 Marland Williams cf 27 .195 .259 .324 106 333 35 65 13 3 8 32 26 138 19 7
ZiPS likes Eddie E's potential this season, is bullish on Jeff Keppinger (Szymborski suggests that the time to trade Brandon Phillips is now). Joey Votto looks about right, and ZiPS thinks that Griffey can contribute decent numbers in limited time (113 games). That feels decent as well.
ZiPS is bearish on Adam Dunn (projecting the second lowest full-season BA of his career) and doesn't think much of Brandon Phillips' chances of repeating his 30/30 season. We don't see any love for Alex Gonzalez or Scott Hatteberg and certainly ZiPS doesn't heart David Ross.
BTW, ZiPS projects that Josh Hamilton is likely to produce a line of .289 BA/.341 OBP/.491 SLG.
Then there's Jay Bruce...
Please note that all projections include a low projected IsoD (OBP minus BA). I'm not saying that any of the projections are accurate, but as I've been warning folks about that.Code:Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RAR DR+ Optimistic (15%) .297 .355 .540 149 569 62 169 49 7 25 104 49 148 20 10 37 12 Mean .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9 11 9 Pessimistic (15%) .239 .283 .416 124 473 37 113 35 2 15 65 29 152 7 8 -7 5
Also, as the "Means" for Votto and Bruce project @290 Strikeouts, those who think the Reds already have enough K bats should get really excited.
The pitchers:
While I'm incredibly excited to see that Gary Majewski might project only as a bad middle reliever rather than an awful one (note sarcasm), that list isn't giving me warm fuzzies. Here are the projected per-9 IP rates for the top 3 pitching prospects included (Bailey, Cueto, Volquez):Code:Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Francisco Cordero 33 3.34 5 2 71 0 70.0 61 26 5 27 80 David Weathers 38 3.84 5 3 63 0 68.0 66 29 8 26 46 Aaron Harang 30 3.87 13 10 33 33 221.0 219 95 26 52 196 Jared Burton 27 4.16 5 4 59 0 67.0 65 31 7 32 54 LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.35 ----------------------------------------------- Bronson Arroyo 31 4.36 11 11 32 31 200.0 216 97 25 56 130 Bill Bray* 25 4.42 4 5 49 0 55.0 54 27 7 19 49 Brad Salmon 28 4.62 4 4 57 0 78.0 78 40 9 37 65 Jon Coutlangus* 27 4.64 3 3 63 0 66.0 66 34 7 35 53 Gary Majewski 28 4.68 3 4 74 0 75.0 83 39 7 30 44 LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.78 ----------------------------------------------- Matt Belisle 28 4.89 5 7 40 15 114.0 131 62 14 30 73 Marcus McBeth 27 4.89 3 3 52 0 57.0 56 31 8 24 50 Homer Bailey 22 4.91 7 9 25 25 132.0 133 72 16 68 105 Todd Coffey 27 4.92 3 4 76 0 75.0 89 41 10 25 50 Johnny Cueto 22 4.97 9 12 29 29 154.0 164 85 24 49 122 Edinson Volquez 24 5.21 10 14 33 33 178.0 188 103 31 77 141 Mike Stanton* 41 5.24 3 4 68 0 55.0 64 32 7 21 36 Matthew Maloney* 24 5.45 9 15 28 28 170.0 180 103 28 85 129 Bobby Livingston* 25 5.78 5 11 26 24 151.0 189 97 25 38 72 Tyler Pelland* 24 5.82 4 9 45 15 116.0 126 75 15 76 77 Richie Gardner 26 5.87 4 8 17 17 89.0 104 58 16 29 52 Steve Kelly 28 6.03 4 9 22 16 100.0 121 67 18 39 61 Alexander Smit* 22 6.36 3 8 31 15 99.0 111 70 17 64 71 Daryl Thompson 22 7.04 3 9 18 18 78.0 93 61 12 31 57 Sergio Valenzuela 23 8.52 1 3 34 5 75.0 101 71 21 50 30
Bailey: 4.63 BB/9, 7.16 K/9, 1.09 HR/9
Cueto: 2.86 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.40 HR/9
Volquez: 3.89 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.57 HR/9
Feel free to discuss.