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Thread: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Hap View Post
    13-10 for Aaron Harang????? I think it will be better than that.

    And how do they know that Bronson will make a relief appearance?

    BobLiv will get 24 starts? God help us all.

    How can they predict Matt Maloney will make 28 starts when he may not even make the team?
    These numbers are projected IF a player were to spend an entire year in the majors, not what they actually will do because that many players surely won't play all of that time.

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  3. #17
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Sorry to see that Belisle will obviously be injured in '08. Guess I can skip this season and look forward to 2009.

    Seriously, does he explain at ALL how he comes to these conclusions?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #18
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Sorry to see that Belisle will obviously be injured in '08. Guess I can skip this season and look forward to 2009.

    Seriously, does he explain at ALL how he comes to these conclusions?
    Belisle injured? But he made 25 appearances out of the pen... To me, this looks like it's basically a past few seasons extrapolated with a healthy dose of regression to the mean. I imagine every team looks pretty mediocre with ZiPS.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #19
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Projections are all flawed, imo. ZiPs to me appears way too pessimistic while James seems way optimistic. Basically they are just tools, like any other system of stat evaluation. With Belisle, ZiPs has totally miscalculated the role the Reds have in mind for him, choosing instead the historical data - never minding that relief was not his role at all in 2007 - ZiPs still insists it should be because his previous years were primarily as a reliever. So you have to look past obvious flaws like that when evaluating it.

  6. #20
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Projections are all flawed, imo. ZiPs to me appears way too pessimistic while James seems way optimistic. Basically they are just tools, like any other system of stat evaluation. With Belisle, ZiPs has totally miscalculated the role the Reds have in mind for him, choosing instead the historical data - never minding that relief was not his role at all in 2007 - ZiPs still insists it should be because his previous years were primarily as a reliever. So you have to look past obvious flaws like that when evaluating it.
    I'll be excited to see your objective evaluation of the ZiPS system then. As jmcclain19 posted the 2007 projections in post #8 in thread, you should be able to give us the correlations and standard deviation for the system for last season versus actuals.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  7. #21
    Plays The Right Way Hap's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    BUMP

    (I was wrong when I predicted better than 13-10 for Harang.)

    Their prediction for Volquez was very innaccurate.

    Some of them, however, (Phillips, Bruce, Votto, Dunn, Burton, Cordero, Weathers, Cueto, Arroyo) have been somewhat accurate.
    .

  8. #22
    Man Pills
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Hap View Post
    BUMP

    (I was wrong when I predicted better than 13-10 for Harang.)

    Their prediction for Volquez was very innaccurate.

    Some of them, however, (Phillips, Bruce, Votto, Dunn, Burton, Cordero, Weathers, Cueto, Arroyo) have been somewhat accurate.
    They pretty well missed Dunn by a long shot.


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