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Thread: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

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    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    The Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski has released the 2008 ZiPS system projections for the Cincinnati Reds here:

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

    Please note that I'm not positioning these projections as being reliable and I have pretty much no insight into the ZiPS methodology. Just thought it would be a good topic for conversation.

    The hitters:

    Code:
    Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
    Adam Dunn*               lf  28  .239  .366  .498 152 524  94 125 26  1 36 103  99 170  5  0 
    AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .277  .357  .480 ------------------------------------------ 
    Edwin Encarnacion        3b  25  .291  .361  .460 141 506  70 147 30  1 18  78  42  87  6  1
    Ken Griffey Jr. *        rf  38  .272  .346  .480 113 427  62 116 20  0 23  81  50  83  2  0 
    Joey Votto*              1b  24  .281  .357  .466 151 556  55 156 34  0 23  88  66 135 17  9 
    AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .276  .349  .461 ------------------------------------------
    AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .275  .346  .463 ------------------------------------------
    AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .272  .343  .449 ------------------------------------------
    Jay Bruce*               cf  21  .266  .317  .476 137 523  48 139 42  4 20  73  38 152 12  9 
    Jeff Keppinger           2b  28  .307  .360  .408 121 449  60 138 23  2  6  48  35  31  3  2 
    Jorge Cantu              2b  26  .279  .324  .457 130 466  55 130 31  2 16  70  28  84  0  0
    Brandon Phillips         2b  27  .271  .325  .435 146 568  87 154 26  2 21  79  39  94 22  6 
    AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .270  .335  .425 ------------------------------------------ 
    Jesse Gutierrez          1b  30  .265  .332  .423  85 279  26  74 18  1  8  39  25  57  0  0 
    AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .275  .336  .414 ------------------------------------------
    Daniel Dorn*             lf  23  .247  .318  .436 125 470  41 116 27  1 20  72  36 118  3  1
    Scott Hatteberg*         1b  38  .261  .348  .374 106 348  42  91 18  0  7  48  44  36  0  0 
    AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .273  .329  .407 ------------------------------------------ 
    Javier Valentin#         c   32  .261  .328  .406  85 207  23  54 12  0  6  32  20  29  0  0 
    Ryan Freel               cf  32  .264  .346  .376 108 386  62 102 22  3  5  33  41  70 26 10 
    AVERAGE C -------------- c ----- .258  .328  .403 ------------------------------------------
    Sea Bass Gonzalez        ss  31  .257  .317  .417 124 432  57 111 25  1 14  58  33  84  1  1 
    Mark Bellhorn#           2b  33  .216  .328  .380 103 305  33  66 18  1 10  44  47 106  0  0 
    Jason Ellison            lf  30  .273  .322  .388 115 227  39  62 12  1  4  21  15  38  8  5 
    Adam Rosales             1b  25  .230  .306  .409 128 486  57 112 31  4 16  58  41 121 13  7 
    Ryan Hanigan             c   27  .252  .332  .350 100 294  32  74 16  2  3  27  33  49  0  1 
    Chris Dickerson*         cf  26  .225  .313  .380 138 476  50 107 19  5 15  52  56 190 23  8 
    Norris Hopper            cf  29  .291  .330  .340 121 382  51 111 12  2  1  30  21  36 12  6 
    Craig Tatum              c   25  .242  .281  .380 108 389  31  94 22  1 10  44  20 103  1  2 
    Ryan Jorgensen           c   29  .218  .284  .356  77 239  24  52 12  0  7  25  22  70  1  0 
    Dave Ross                c   31  .203  .275  .369  70 187  18  38  7  0  8  24  18  59  0  0 
    Juan Castro              ss  36  .235  .280  .365  73 170  16  40 11  1  3  20  10  38  0  1 
    Paul Janish              ss  25  .228  .294  .317 147 539  52 123 26  2  6  46  42  82 10  3 
    Andy Machado#            ss  27  .205  .299  .303 123 347  37  71 12  2  6  29  45 103  7  4 
    Chris Valaika            ss  22  .236  .280  .343 140 543  41 128 26  1 10  58  22 144  1 10 
    Drew Stubbs              cf  23  .223  .301  .335 136 538  64 120 29  2  9  44  56 175 18 23 
    Marland Williams         cf  27  .195  .259  .324 106 333  35  65 13  3  8  32  26 138 19  7
    My comments:

    ZiPS likes Eddie E's potential this season, is bullish on Jeff Keppinger (Szymborski suggests that the time to trade Brandon Phillips is now). Joey Votto looks about right, and ZiPS thinks that Griffey can contribute decent numbers in limited time (113 games). That feels decent as well.

    ZiPS is bearish on Adam Dunn (projecting the second lowest full-season BA of his career) and doesn't think much of Brandon Phillips' chances of repeating his 30/30 season. We don't see any love for Alex Gonzalez or Scott Hatteberg and certainly ZiPS doesn't heart David Ross.

    BTW, ZiPS projects that Josh Hamilton is likely to produce a line of .289 BA/.341 OBP/.491 SLG.

    Then there's Jay Bruce...

    Code:
    Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
    Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  RAR   DR+
    Optimistic (15%)  .297  .355  .540 149 569  62 169 49  7 25 104  49 148 20 10   37   12 
    Mean              .266  .317  .476 137 523  48 139 42  4 20  73  38 152 12  9   11    9 
    Pessimistic (15%) .239  .283  .416 124 473  37 113 35  2 15  65  29 152  7  8   -7    5
    Please note that all projections include a low projected IsoD (OBP minus BA). I'm not saying that any of the projections are accurate, but as I've been warning folks about that.

    Also, as the "Means" for Votto and Bruce project @290 Strikeouts, those who think the Reds already have enough K bats should get really excited.

    The pitchers:

    Code:
    Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
    Francisco Cordero         33   3.34   5   2  71   0    70.0   61   26   5   27   80 
    David Weathers            38   3.84   5   3  63   0    68.0   66   29   8   26   46 
    Aaron Harang              30   3.87  13  10  33  33   221.0  219   95  26   52  196 
    Jared Burton              27   4.16   5   4  59   0    67.0   65   31   7   32   54
    LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.35 ----------------------------------------------- 
    Bronson Arroyo            31   4.36  11  11  32  31   200.0  216   97  25   56  130 
    Bill Bray*                25   4.42   4   5  49   0    55.0   54   27   7   19   49 
    Brad Salmon               28   4.62   4   4  57   0    78.0   78   40   9   37   65 
    Jon Coutlangus*           27   4.64   3   3  63   0    66.0   66   34   7   35   53 
    Gary Majewski             28   4.68   3   4  74   0    75.0   83   39   7   30   44 
    LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.78 -----------------------------------------------
    Matt Belisle              28   4.89   5   7  40  15   114.0  131   62  14   30   73 
    Marcus McBeth             27   4.89   3   3  52   0    57.0   56   31   8   24   50 
    Homer Bailey              22   4.91   7   9  25  25   132.0  133   72  16   68  105 
    Todd Coffey               27   4.92   3   4  76   0    75.0   89   41  10   25   50 
    Johnny Cueto              22   4.97   9  12  29  29   154.0  164   85  24   49  122 
    Edinson Volquez           24   5.21  10  14  33  33   178.0  188  103  31   77  141 
    Mike Stanton*             41   5.24   3   4  68   0    55.0   64   32   7   21   36 
    Matthew Maloney*          24   5.45   9  15  28  28   170.0  180  103  28   85  129 
    Bobby Livingston*         25   5.78   5  11  26  24   151.0  189   97  25   38   72 
    Tyler Pelland*            24   5.82   4   9  45  15   116.0  126   75  15   76   77 
    Richie Gardner            26   5.87   4   8  17  17    89.0  104   58  16   29   52 
    Steve Kelly               28   6.03   4   9  22  16   100.0  121   67  18   39   61 
    Alexander Smit*           22   6.36   3   8  31  15    99.0  111   70  17   64   71 
    Daryl Thompson            22   7.04   3   9  18  18    78.0   93   61  12   31   57 
    Sergio Valenzuela         23   8.52   1   3  34   5    75.0  101   71  21   50   30
    While I'm incredibly excited to see that Gary Majewski might project only as a bad middle reliever rather than an awful one (note sarcasm), that list isn't giving me warm fuzzies. Here are the projected per-9 IP rates for the top 3 pitching prospects included (Bailey, Cueto, Volquez):

    Bailey: 4.63 BB/9, 7.16 K/9, 1.09 HR/9
    Cueto: 2.86 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.40 HR/9
    Volquez: 3.89 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 1.57 HR/9

    Feel free to discuss.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  3. #2
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Thanks for the info, Steel, but looking at some of those numbers is depressing. I definitely liked Bill James' a lot better...

  4. #3
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    Thanks for the info, Steel, but looking at some of those numbers is depressing. I definitely liked Bill James' a lot better...
    Well, I agree on that. However, after seeing the James' projections, I had a feeling that I could project out as only a slightly below-replacement level player and the last time I took swings was a few months ago at medium speed in a batting cage.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  5. #4
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Roughly an .800 OPS for Jay Bruce as a 21 year old centerfielder that projects to be a little above average in CF? Yeah, I will take that every day of the week.

    Little low on Dunns slugging line, but his AVG/OBP is something I could certainly see.

    Votto's line looks good, but I think his BB/K rate will be a little better than projected (more like 70/120ish).

    I like Phillips a little more than they do in the slugging department.... otherwise it looks about right.

    Really interesting how much power it projects Danny Dorn to have.

    Also very interesting how little the system likes Adam Rosales. I think he could do MUCH better than what he is projected at.

    Don't like what it has Bailey at for reasons that have been discuss a billion times. Really surprised by the HR rate it has Bailey at.

    Think Volquez will also do quite a bit better than these projections have.

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    The line for Volquez really jumped out at me. I think he'll be significantly better than that.
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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    FWIW, this chart told us pretty much exactly what we already knew about our pitching -- right now it's Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and 3 days of your prayers.

    Interesting line to me was Matt Belisle. I've got him penciled in as my breakout candidate (potentially to the 200IP mark) for this season, yet ZiPS only figures him for 15 starts and just a shade over 100 IP. His numbers are at about league average, just mostly as a reliever here.

    I'm a little more optimistic on Volquez, Burton, and Bray than they are, but I also don't figure Bailey or Majewski to come near the posted numbers they have.

    Interesting list, thanks for the post Steel.
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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    This is a lot more realistic than the other projections I've seen so far.

  9. #8
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    For Comparison sake - here is what they had listed for 2007
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...highlight=ZiPS

    Code:
    Name                BA  OBP  SLG   AB  RC
    Dunn,Adam         .259 .382 .536  556 114
    Phillips,Brandon  .266 .320 .405  511  66
    Hatteberg,Scott   .270 .360 .398  460  66
    Encarnacion,Edwin .275 .351 .489  454  78
    Gonzalez,Alex     .245 .293 .390  449  51
    Freel,Ryan        .265 .361 .376  441  60
    Griffey Jr. ,Ken  .270 .342 .506  423  73
    Denorfia,Chris    .287 .353 .440  418  65
    Conine,Jeff       .266 .333 .394  406  53
    Castro,Juan       .240 .277 .351  262  25
    Moeller,Chad      .206 .266 .314  223  19
    Ross,Dave         .234 .326 .482  197  31
    Valentin,Javier   .256 .326 .446  195  28
    Hamilton,Josh     .261 .305 .412  165  21
    Keppinger,Jeff    .286 .338 .360   50   6
    Pitchers          .142 .164 .204  309  10
    Totals            .254 .330 .417 5519 759
    					
    					
    Name               ERA   G  GS  INN   R
    Arroyo,Bronson    3.86  34  32  212 100
    Harang,Aaron      4.03  33  33  210 103
    Milton,Eric       4.96  31  31  178 107
    Lohse,Kyle        4.96  35  27  167 101
    Santos,Victor     5.08  26  20  124  77
    Belisle,Matt      4.95  42  13  109  66
    Majewski,Gary     4.21  69   1   77  39
    Coffey,Todd       4.04  70   0   69  34
    Weathers,David    5.35  66   0   69  45
    Stanton,Mike      3.71  68   0   68  30
    Shackelford,Brian 4.81  62   0   58  34
    Cormier,Rheal     4.89  68   0   57  34
    Bray,Bill         4.79  42   0   47  27
    Totals            4.53 646 157 1445 797
    Pretty darn close to being spot on for Junior & Dunn. Phillips obviously had a higher slugging balanced out by the slugging prediction that EdE didn't meet. They underpredicted AGon and overshot on Ross. But the hitters weren't really far out of the ballpark.

    For the pitchers - Arroyo & Harang balance out - but other than Lohse & Weathers, seems like every pitcher was worse than the guess.

    All that is FYI - who knows what it means in the big picture. So that all that for what it's worth.

  10. #9
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    It's hard to agree or disagree with these projections without knowing what formula or methodology Szymborski used to arrive at his conclusions.

    I agree with Screwball, I like Bill James' projections better.


    It will be interesting to see just how close Szymborski and James come to their projections.

  11. #10
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Look at those stats on Cantu. Huge mistake, I tells ya.
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  12. #11
    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Dan will never get into the Old Red Guard. That Seabass stuff is a no-no.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Seeing these numbers for David Ross makes me wonder if the Reds should consider bringing in Johnny Estrrada. Ross and Javy are both potentially gone after this year and there is no one exciting on the horizon.

    I'm not a big Estrada fan, but he's better than anything in house and he seems to hit well every other year. 2008 should be his year again (I know that isn't scientific or really an indication of anything). A two year deal with an option for a 3rd would probably be pretty attractive to Estrada and might be fairly cheap since he likely isn't getting many multi-year offers. It would upgrade the spot in 2008 and provide a safety net to give a kid like Craig Tatum a shot in 2009 while we all hold our breath waiting for Mesoraco.

    Since Estrada is a switch hitter it would allow the Reds to put both Javy and Ross on the block for salary relief, roster relief, and maybe even get something in return. I'm guessing Javy might be desirable to teams as a cheap LH bench bat/emergency catcher. I'd guess that AL teams that don't need to double switch, or run the risk of running out of PH, and could make use of Javy as an occasional DH, might find his alleged ability to play behind the plate attractive in a guy primarily kept around to hit against RH pitchers. The Reds already seemingly have Hatte for that role. Other teams may be interested in Ross and his reputation for stopping the running game. You won't get Edinson Volquez for them, but maybe something useful down the road.
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  14. #13
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    I half expected Norris Hopper's projected SLG to be lower than his OBP.

    I'd love to see Drew Stubbs and Chris Dickerson combine to see 1014 AB so they can whiff 365 times between them. That would be special.

    72% SB rate for Ryan Freel seems about right, given his propensity to create outs on the basepaths. Not even Farney can help him from getting picked off or avoid getting caught stealing.

    If Brandon Phillips projects for only 568 AB, then I can only hope it means he's never batting any higher than 5th in the order.

    As long as Adam Dunn's AVG is within 5% of his weight, that's good enough, right?

    Tom Shearn's projections must have been so outrageously awesome that they are too good for publication, b/c he is, after all, the answer to 2008.

  15. #14
    Plays The Right Way Hap's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    13-10 for Aaron Harang????? I think it will be better than that.

    And how do they know that Bronson will make a relief appearance?

    BobLiv will get 24 starts? God help us all.

    How can they predict Matt Maloney will make 28 starts when he may not even make the team?
    .

  16. #15
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Hap View Post
    13-10 for Aaron Harang????? I think it will be better than that.
    HE may very well be better then that, but will the TEAM be good enough?
    The rest of his numbers look good.
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