It's as inevitable as night following day. The top guys get traded or graduate. You may have a run of 2-3 years while the big names close in on the majors, but after that you sink back. Were Bailey, Bruce and Cueto to be in AAA in 08, the Reds would be a top 3 system again next year -- but I'm pretty sure they'll cross the Ohio in time to lose their rookie eligibility.I'm not. We'll drop.
if 2 or 3 pitchers establish themselves as effective major leaguers even as we drop, it's a price that I'm thrilled to pay.
We should be glad the system has ascended so high and realize that dropping well back in the pack does not signal a collapse.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
The Dodgers have problems because they don't play their top talent and instead pay millions and millions of dollars to guys like Nomar to play first base rather than let a guy like James Loney play.Dodgers have long had a very deep farm system. They've clung to it with a death grip, and it has not resurrected them. Devil Rays will be the same way.
As for the Devil Rays.... any other division in baseball and I think they are serious contenders in 2009 and make a solid run in 2008.
2000-2001 wasn't quite where its at right now in terms of top end talent and being at AAA or higher like all of the guys are right now.The 2000-1 Reds had a very highly regarded system, and refused to use it to acquire pitching. I don't want to do that again.
I agree. I am not against trading anyone in the system not named Jay Bruce. However it would take quite a bit to get Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto. I also am not going to sacrifice the farm for 1 pitcher either though.you really only play about 18, 20 guys. If you're really as deep as the Reds look, then you can't play 'em all. use that depth to find 18 or 20 guys that go together well.
I think Princeton has a point ....95% of these guys (probably higher) won't make it to the bigs...and their current value is probably at an all-time high.
A 22 year old 1st baseman vs a 24 year old 1st baseman with the same stats and the same classification- the 22 year old is probably worth 10 times more than the 24 year old. I think the point is this -you better figure things out quick and sell players off when their value is at their highest. Figuring this out is brutal -it would be nice if the team had a systematic way of measuring things to find out true value -my guess is they take a lot of WAG hoping that they are correct (that's what the rule 5 pick up looked like).
I just don't believe the Reds have a way in which they measure things to find out the optimum value of their prospects. I would guess there's a lot of talk, but not a lot parameters in place to help their staff figure things out. The Red Sox are years ahead of everyone else in this regard. I wish the Reds would do the same.
The very nature of minor league prospects is that most of them eventually fail. The smart teams make the hard decisions about which guys the REALLY want to keep and make the rest of 'em available in exchange for proven major league talent. For every one that reaches his potential and becomes a key contributor for his new team, three or four will wash out completely. Better to have those guys wash out in someone else's system. Trade 'em while their value is high rather than waiting for the Peter Principal to kick in and wipe out their value completely.
The Yankees and Braves used to be masters at identifying which prospects they want to keep (Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Chipper, Glavine, Smoltz) and using the rest of 'em as trade bait. While they did lose the occasional Jason Schmidt, they had plenty of pennants to wipe their tears away and help keep them warm at night.
Here's the thing though. It's become chic recently to hammer Doug about context. But here's a little context IMHO...the majority of A/B+ prospects that the Reds are "sitting on" actually fit needs for the Reds 25 man roster. I don't consider factoring them into your long range plans to be rationalizing mediocrity and failure. Once a position player reaches the prospect status of Bruce or even Votto, the risk really is overstated-in all likelihood they are going to contribute at the major league level. The only question is will a guy like Bruce be truly elite or will he simply be a regular (which in and of itself is valuable over 6 yrs).
Last edited by jojo; 01-06-2008 at 01:26 PM.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner